Week 12 CFB DFS Optimizer Report

·9 min read

NBC Sports Edge Draft Kings Optimizer Lineup

QB - Kenny Pickett, Pitt | $9,100 | 32.9 Points = 3.62 PPT

RB - Roschon Johnson, Texas | $3,800 | 26.6 Points = 7.00 PPT

RB - Pat Garwo, BC | $5,800 | 14.7 Points = 2.53 PPT

WR - Jahan Dotson, Penn State | $8,400 | 26.9 Points = 3.20 PPT

WR - Billy Kemp Jr., UVA | $6,100 | 20.7 Points = 3.39 PPT

WR - Parker Washington, Penn State | $4,000 | 13.3 Points = 3.33 PPT

Flex - Leddie Brown, West Virginia | $6,200 | 20.6 Points = 3.32 PPT

S-Flex - Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland | $6,300| 24.1 Points = 3.84 PPT

Projected Total Points = 179.9

49,700/$50,000

NBC Sports Edge FanDuel Optimizer Lineup

QB - Kenny Pickett, Pitt | $10,800 | 28.8 Points = 2.77 PPT

RB - Kenneth Walker, Michigan State | $9,200 | 26 Points = 2.83 PPT

RB - Brittain Brown | $6,100 | 18.1 Points = 2.97 PPT

WR - Tahj Washington, USC | $6,900 | 22 Points = 3.19 PPT

WR - Billy Kemp, UVA | $7,100 | 16.9 Points = 2.38 PPT

WR - Chris Olave, Ohio State | $9,200 | 16.9 Points = 1.84 PPT

S-Flex - Brennan Armstrong, UVA | $10,700 | 28.2 Points = 3.21 PPT

Projected Total Points = 158

$60,000/$60,000

It’s hard to fault The Optimizer for placing Kenny Pickett in both lineups this week, as the Heisman candidate has posted at least 21 DFS points in every single game this season, while scoring 30 points or more in five of his last eight games. He also has the pleasure of facing Virginia’s inept defense that is allowing 3 points per drive and ranks 120th in preventing explosive plays. You can hardly ask for a better matchup and Pickett is a particularly attractive value on Draft Kings where he is the sixth most expensive QB on the slate…..Roschon Johnson at $3,800 is a bonafide mistake on Draft Kings’ part, as the Texas tailback is slated to assume the starting running back job with Bijan Robinson out for the remainder of the season. Texas has plenty of issues on defense, but their rushing attack has been just fine, ranking 25th in overall team rushing performance while ranking 23rd nationally with 2.9 points per drive. They take on a West Virginia team that ranks 82nd in suppressing rushing explosiveness and allows a sub-par 43% rushing success rate. I expect RoJo will be widely owned at his price, while Alabama transfer Keilan Robinson returns from a concussion and could see double digit carries at $3,600…..Jahan Dotson and Parker Washington anchor The Optimizer’s Draft Kings lineup against a Rutgers defense that does a very good job of shutting down the run game, which is nonexistent for Penn State anyway, but allows 8.6 yards per pass attempt (115th) and ranks dead last in the country in suppressing passing explosiveness. For his part, Dotson has feasted on lower echelon defenses, obliterating Maryland for 56.3 points two weeks ago while also posting 32.9 points against Ohio State and 29.3 against Indiana. For his part, Washington had an explosive performance last week against Michigan, catching four passes for 92 yards while also posting 9 receptions for 108 yards two games prior. He looks to be the logical successor when Dotson enters the NFL Draft after this season, which is a premium fantasy position for as long as OC Mike Yurcich’s pass heavy offensive structure is in place. His price drops from $4,400 last week to $4K in the Week 11 slate…..The Optimizer continues it’s torrid love affair with Billy Kemp Jr., which is understandable considering his 87 targets is top-15 in the nation on a per game basis, and that includes last week’s four target load with Brennan Armstrong out and five targets in Week 9 when he got injured and had to leave the contest. In the six games prior to his injury, he received at least 10 targets in every single one. In a PPR format, receptions make him as projectable a mid-priced receiver as there is in the nation. DFS Managers should exercise caution however, as Kemp exited last week’s game against Notre Dame with a lower leg injury, which is the second straight game in which he has left with injury. If he is unable to suit up, Rashaun Henry is a nice bargain play at $3,700 so long as Brennan Armstrong returns from his rib injury as expected. If he remains out, avoid the UVA passing attack at all costs…..With the return of QB Phil Jurkovec from a hand injury, it was assumed that Garwo would take a backseat to the star signal caller who was the driving force behind OC Frank Cignetti Jr.’s offense. However Garwo received 30 carries for 116 yards and a touchdown against Virginia Tech and 24 carries for 104 yards last week against Georgia Tech. He’s a fine option as the 18th priced running back in the Draft Kings main slate.

Froton Adjusted Draft Kings Optimizer Lineup

QB - Phil Jurkovec, BC | $4,500 | 15 Points = 3.00 Points Per Thousand

RB - Hassan Haskins, Michigan | $7,600 | 14.3 Points = 1.88 PPT

RB - Braelon Allen, Wisconsin | $8,600 | 22.2 Points = 2.58 PPT

WR - Garrett Wilson, Ohio State | $6,800 | 17.8 Points = 2.62 PPT

WR - Reggie Roberson, SMU | $4,900 | 13.9 Points = 2.84 PPT

WR - Jared Wayne, Pitt | $4,300 | 10.3 Points = 2.4 PPT

Flex - Roschon Johnson, Texas | $3,800 | 26.6 Points = 7.00 PPT

S-Flex - CJ Stroud, Ohio State | $9,500 | 28.5 Points = 3.00 PPT

Projected Total Points = 145.3

$50,000/$50,000

Froton Adjusted FanDuel Optimizer Lineup

QB - Jaxson Dart, USC | $8,000 | 20.6 Points = 2.58 PPT

RB - Braelon Allen, Wisconsin | $8,900 | 18.8 Points = 2.11 PPT

RB - Keaontay Ingram, USC | $7,300 | 14.8 Points = 2.03 PPT

WR - Garrett Wilson, Ohio State | $9,400 | 15.1 Points = 1.61 PPT

WR - Jordan Addison, Pitt | $9,300 | 14.3 Points = 1.54 PPT

WR - Tajh Washington, USC | $6,900 | 21.6 Points = 3.13 PPT

S-Flex - Bryce Young, Alabama | $10,200 | 25.6 Points = 2.51 PPT

Projected Total Points = 130.8

$60,000/$60,000

Phil Jurkovec is a gross oversight on Draft Kings’ part, as he played the previous two weeks while posting a robust 48.5 DFS points last week against Georgia Tech. Somehow the Eagles’ signal caller is still listed at the QB minimum price tag against a Florida State defense that ranks 53rd in overall pass D and 87th in suppressing explosiveness through the air. He will be widely owned in the SuperFlex spot and allows astute managers to load up in other spots, with my other QB selection being CJ Stroud who ranks 5th in price…..I’m rostering Braelon Allen in both formats, as the Wisconsin freshman sensation has cleared the 100-yard mark in his last six games while scoring eight touchdowns in that span. He faces a Nebraska team that allows a 43% rushing success rate (71st) and ranks 81st with a 17% stuff rate. With co-starter Chez Mellusi out for the remainder of the year, Allen is noticeably underpriced as the 10th most expensive running back on FanDuel, as opposed to his 5th overall price on DKs…..I also like FanDuel’s price on Keaontay Ingram, who at $7,300 is 20th on their Running Back list. The Texas transfer received 51 carries combined against Notre Dame and Arizona, rushing for 342 yards and two touchdowns before getting banged up against Arizona State on November 6th, receiving 14 carries for 54 yards. Fortunately Ingram had an unexpected bye week due to Cal’s COVID outbreak last week and returned to a full practice on Tuesday, so he will be ready to go against UCLA’s 71st rated run defense that allows a 46% success rate (101st) and ranks 96th in EPA/Play according to CFB Winning Edge’s analytics…..Hassan Haskins is an easy call at $7,600, which ranks 9th in salary for the main slate, as Blake Corum has already been ruled out for their dream matchup against Maryland’s porous rush defense that ranks 102nd in success rate, 86th in marginal efficiency and 113th in stuff rate. The Wolverines will have their way with the Terps’ front seven, as Haskins has gone for over 100-yards in four of his last five games and has the backfield to himself now, receiving 31 and 27 carries in his last two contests…..Garrett Wilson is a smoking deal in Draft Kings, ranking 16th in overall wide receiver salary despite Ohio State facing Michigan State’s pass D that ranks 94th in success rate and allows a 64% completion rate. If Cade McNamara can throw for 389 yards against MSU, then imagine what the Ohio State passing attack which ranks first in overall passing performance, first in points per drive (3.93 PPD) and averages 10 yards per pass attempt can do against them?.....I’m rostering one Pitt wideout in each of my lineups, with Jordan Addison priced correctly against Virginia’s downright horrid defense that ranks 120th in suppressing explosiveness and allows 2.97 points per drive (113th). However Jared Wayne is an especially attractive option at his low $4,300 salary. He has posted at least 70 yards and a touchdown in 4 of his last 5 games, while averaging 19.3 DFS points per game over those four contests. I think he pairs quite well with Reggie Roberson at $4,900 as low-price, high-upside plays under $5K. Though Roberson is going up against Cincinnati, Danny Gray is doubtful to play and SMU will be forced to throw if they want to have a shot at upsetting the Bearcats. USF was able to move the ball through the air last week, so i’m willing to take the value play with Roberson despite the tough matchup…..I’m in agreeance with The Optimizer when it comes to Tahj Washington, as the USC starting Z-WR has been peppered since Drake London went down for the year. In Week 9 against Arizona, he caught 8-of-10 targets for 87 yards. He followed that up by receiving a season-high 15 targets (!), reeling in nine for 78 yards. With that kind of prodigious usage, he is an excellent high-floor option that will easily crack the 20-point barrier if he is able to reel in a touchdown, which looks exceedingly likely considering the amount of passes being thrown his way.

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