Week 10 NFL DFS Stacks

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This weekly article gets us ready for NFL DFS by considering some of the safest stacks, contrarian stacks, and a mini-stack or two. The premise is based on research showing the degree of correlation between one player’s fantasy output and another in his game. Among the strongest correlations are QB-QB(opponent), QB-WR1, QB-WR2, QB-WR1(opponent), QB-TE, and RB-D/ST. These are for the main slate on Sunday.

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Safe Stacks:

Tampa Bay at Washington: Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Leonard Fournette

The Bucs travel to Washington this weekend for the league’s best passing matchup. Brady leads the league in fantasy points, passing touchdowns, and is second in both passing yards and attempts. This is a dream spot for him, so despite the high salary, I love building around him. Fortunately, the wide receiver situation is very clear with Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski all seem on the wrong side of their questionable tags. Evans is the only guy to trust for your main lineups. Cameron Brate or OJ Howard could be worth a look in tournaments, but Leonard Fournette could be relied upon too. He has shown some nice ability to make up the slack in the passing game, with 4-6 targets in the last three games, and is tied with Alvin Kamara with the seventh-most goal line carries (8) and with Austin Ekeler for the seventh-most red zone carries, 27). The Bucs have one of the highest implied team totals of the week, so don’t overthink this stack too much.

Minnesota at LA Chargers: Justin Herbert, Mike Williams, Dalvin Cook

Another game with fantasy fireworks likely is this one, but we can expect good things from both sides here. I’ve mentioned Cook earlier in the week as a top cash game target, before the disturbing allegations of abuse were brought to light. It seems likely that he’ll play, and it would be negligent to not acknowledge the great spot he’s in. The Chargers are pretty good in the secondary, but have been vulnerable against the run, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs. Cook is the best bet of the week to go for 100-plus yards and a score this weekend. On the other side, Herbert has been amazing this season, and his salary is enough off the top tier that he feels like a bargain at home this week in a game with such a high total and narrow spread. Williams has now posted three poor games in a row, and some of you might prefer to roster Austin Ekeler or Keenan Allen here, but Williams has faced some very good coverage in those three games. His salary has plummeted, and the Vikings are not in position to hold him back this week, as the sixth-best WR matchup. Williams does not feel like much of a risk to me, and hopefully you can remember his early season dominance as the reward.

Dallas vs. Atlanta: Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Kyle Pitts, Cordarrelle Patterson

Vegas likes Dallas to bounce-back from a horrific loss to the Denver Broncos last week, which was nearly a shut out until a couple of Malik Turner hero touchdowns late in the fourth quarter. They are big favorites in the game with the highest over/under of the weekend. Atlanta has been favorable for opposing passing and rushing attacks, but I’m going with the pass game for this stack. Prescott and Cooper are very affordable on DraftKings, but you can roster them on any site without hampering your lineup. Cooper is taking it easy on his hamstring, but should be good to go on Sunday. CeeDee Lamb is a great bounceback candidate, and though he’s more expensive than Cooper, I like him in tournaments.

If we acknowledge that Dallas is not a defense to fear, it’s smart to add some Falcons’ skill players to this game stack. Kyle Pitts and Patterson are the top options from both a floor and ceiling perspective. Pitts is still having some growing pains with a couple of ugly drops in recent games, but remains the best receiving option Matt Ryan has without Calvin Ridley. He’ll get back on track here. Patterson’s worst fantasy game since Week 2 is 14 fantasy points. I’m frankly shocked that Atlanta has figured out how to make him work for their offense after all his years in the league, but it’s undeniable. DFS sites have Patterson priced near James Robinson, James Conner, and Leonard Fournette, and he’s out-produced all three by at least two half-PPR fantasy points per game.

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Contrarian Stack:

Buffalo at NY Jets: Josh Allen, Devin Singletary, Bills D/ST

How many DFSers go back to Allen and the Bills after they got destroyed by Jacksonville last weekend? Ouch, it hurts, but I’m raising my hand. Allen and the Bills’ D/ST should show up here, and even before there was coach-speak about running the ball more, I was interested in the Bills run game. That’s due purely to the Jets, who allow like 10 more fantasy points per game to running backs than the next worst team, Detroit. If the Bills don’t run the ball this week, I give up. Unfortunately, we’re lacking some clarity as to who the main ball carrier will be. Zach Moss is still in the concussion protocol, so I have Singletary listed here. If Moss is cleared on Friday, he would be the play.

Seattle at Green Bay: Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett

Wilson is gearing up to play, as is Aaron Rodgers, so this game could actually be a fun one. You’ll need to confirm this is the case as we head into the weekend. Wilson being back should be a boon for Lockett. Metcalf fared pretty well with Geno Smith, but Lockett was more down than up in Wilson’s absence. Both should have a decent floor, and the pattern is that one of them usually gets multiple scores, so I feel it best to have exposure to both Seattle wideouts. If you want to expand the stack to the Packers, you could consider Aaron Jones or Davante Adams but that is getting pretty expensive. Adams wasn’t great with Jordan Love, but he did still garner 14 targets. Assuming both star QBs are on the field, mix and match at will to get exposure to all the possible fantasy points in this game.

Mini-Stack of the week:

Najee Harris and Steelers D/ST

Harris is the cornerstone of the Steelers offense, making big impacts on the ground and in the receiving department each and every week. Sunday, he gets a Lions’ team that allows the second-most fantasy points to running backs, second-most real points, and fourth-most overall fantasy points to opponents. I normally like to use a defense at home, but the Steelers are highly rated with few points per game allowed and are one of the sack leaders, averaging 2.8 sacks per game. They’ll cost you, given how bad the Detroit offense has been (fourth-fewest points per game scored), but should be worth it.