HUNTING FOR CHUBB
Nick Chubb currently sits fourth in the league in rushing with 806 yards — behind Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette — thanks to his 5.2 yards per rush (sixth best). So of course, Cleveland Browns head coach Freddie Kitchens said he wants to scale back his attempts to make room for Kareem Hunt who had been suspended for the first eight games of the season. Kitchens sure has a good grasp on how to run a stereotypical Cleveland football team.
The Buffalo Bills have allowed the third-most rushing attempts over the last three weeks (31 per game) at a clip of 4.8 yards per attempt. This means there is still plenty of room for Chubb to get 17-20 rushes on Sunday as Hunt will most likely absorb a good piece of backup RB Dontrell Hilliard’s 40 percent snap share.
Chubb has eclipsed 85 yards rushing in five of his last six weeks against the fourth, 24th, 20th, 22nd and 13th DVOA rush defenses — Buffalo is ranked 30th. Take Chubbs’ Over 91.5 rushing total as the matchup might be Kitchens-proof.
ROAD DOGS LOST THEIR BITE
If you have been following the ATS trends of road and home teams this year, then you will know that the visitors have been dominating with road underdogs hitting at an even higher rate. Heading into last week, road teams were 73-47-2 ATS (60%) and road dogs were 52-29-2 (63%) ATS. However, Week 9 saw a serious regression to the mean as home teams went 11-3 ATS while road dogs went 1-6 ATS.
This week, we like home teams to continue their hot run and are throwing down a two-teamer to prove it. Yesterday, we wrote about backing the Jets as three-point home dogs, so we will exclude them from this list.
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Rams at Steelers (+3.5): The Steelers are coming in hot having won four of their last five (with their only loss in overtime against the Ravens) and will look to move into a playoff position with a win over the well-rested Los Angeles Rams. L.A.’s strength of schedule may hurt them as their last three wins were against teams who are 3-21 combined this year.
The game could easily be won on the pass rush where the Steelers are second in the league in QB hits produced while their quarterback, Mason Rudolph, has been sacked more than once just two times in his six game.
Vikings at Cowboys (-3): The Vikes have lost three road games this year to Chicago, Green Bay and last week in Kansas City — all by at least three points. The offense will also be with Adam Thielen as Kirk Cousins and his 15-26-2 career road record and 1-6 record versus the Cowboys could struggle in primetime.
THE BEST ARE GETTING BETTER
The San Francisco 49ers run game is good — really good. They lead the NFC in rushing yards per game, rushes per game and rushing touchdowns per game. Things could possibly be getting better for Kyle Shanahan’s rushing attack as left tackle Joe Stanley plans to play in Week 10 against a Seattle Seahawks team that has allowed 367 yards on the ground over the last three weeks.
The 49ers have been less efficient running to the left tackle side as their 4.01 yards per carry is one full yard less than their yards per carry behind the right tackle. Matt Breida saw his snap count increase by 10 percent in Week 9 as he outgained fellow running back Tevin Coleman 78 to 23 but played 12 fewer offensive snaps. The Seahawks’ 22nd ranked DVOA rush defense may have no answers for the 49ers rushing game.
We are jumping on Breida’s rushing total of 56.5 yards and hitting the Over is what is shaping up to be an epic Monday night matchup.
RIDING THE ROOKIE WAVE
The Cincinnati Bengals have benched Andy Dalton for rookie Ryan Finley ahead of their Week 10 contest against the talk of the town Baltimore Ravens. The former Wolfpack was the sixth signal-caller taken in this year’s draft and finished the preseason with a 72.3 percent completion rate while only taking four sacks in 64 pass attempts.
We usually like fading rookies, but with how much praise Baltimore is getting after their win over the Patriots, the Ravens may be sleeping on the Bengals who could have the services of A.J. Green. Dalton averaged 281.5 yards a game while taking 3.6 sacks a game proving the offensive potential is there and that this isn't a Luke Falk situation.
Fellow rookie QBs Gardner Minshew, Daniel Jones and Kyle Allen all threw for over 250 yards in their first taste of the NFL this year. Let’s ride the rookie wave and play the Over 250.5 passing yards on Finley and hopefully, he will be drowning in memes come Monday.
KICKERS ARE PEOPLE TOO
For this week’s kicking prop, we are going to stick with what’s working. We are 3-0 over the last three weeks fading the weather in the northeast. Checking out the Covers weather report we can see that poor kicking conditions are expected in Cleveland where the Buffalo Bills meet the Browns.
The weather looks below freezing with strong winds and a high chance of snow. That’s great news as Bills kicker Stephen Hauschka who has yet to make a kick from 50 or longer and hasn’t hit anything longer than 45 yards since Week 4. Cleveland Kicker Austin Seibert has yet to attempt a kick longer than 49.
Take the Under 46.5 yards on the longest field goal.