Week 10 Fantasy power rankings and full slate guide: Seahawks to keep pace with Rams

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The <a class="link rapid-noclick-resp" href="/nfl/teams/sea" data-ylk="slk:Seattle Seahawks">Seattle Seahawks</a> wide receivers will have room to run against the <a class="link rapid-noclick-resp" href="/nfl/teams/lar" data-ylk="slk:Los Angeles Rams">Los Angeles Rams</a> defense. (AP Photo/Rey Del Rio)
The Seattle Seahawks wide receivers will have room to run against the Los Angeles Rams defense. (AP Photo/Rey Del Rio)

Here, I’ll run through every Week 10 game and rank them from best to worst from a fantasy perspective. We’ll also look at betting lines to project possible winners and game script, as well as examining one key matchup to watch in each game.

1. Seattle Seahawks (4-4) at Los Angeles Rams (8-1)

Total: 51
Favorite: Rams (-10)

A matchup between two NFC West teams should bring us a high-scoring affair and could clear the already high 51-point total. The Rams got their first loss in Week 9 but still moved the ball well against the Saints defense. Seattle’s stop unit has exceeded low expectations this year but has plenty of weaknesses to pick at. The Seahawks offense remains run-leaning but hyper-efficient when they take to the air. Russell Wilson’s 8.1 touchdown rate ranks third in the NFL behind Ryan Fitzpatrick and Patrick Mahomes. He also checks in at seventh with an 8.7 adjusted yards per attempt. If the Rams offense causes them to open up in this game, they have the firepower for it.

Matchup to watch

Marcus Peters has been one of 2018’s biggest letdowns, allowing a 145.2 passer rating in coverage. None of the Seattle receivers are a safe bet but each makes sense as a ceiling play. Doug Baldwin will be tied up with slot corner Nickell Robey-Coleman inside. He’s been LA’s most steady corner. It’ll be David Moore and Tyler Lockett outside, although Lockett runs 56 percent of his routes inside. With his big-play ability, Lockett makes sense in a high-scoring game with the chances to take reps against a leaky corner.

2. New Orleans Saints (7-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-3)

Total: 54
Favorite: Saints (-5.5) 

The Saints handed the Rams their first loss last week on the back of their two skill-position superstars, Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. On the other side, the Bengals spent the week losing with A.J. Green set to miss several games. Andy Dalton has long since proved himself to be a player that’s highly reliant on the talent around him to both win games and produce numbers. He’ll head into Sunday lacking his two top passing game difference makers (and touchdown scorers) in Green and Tyler Eifert. No doubt the Saints secondary offers a tempting matchup and is still an exploitable entity for this passing game. That said, with a ragtag receiver corps led by Tyler Boyd and followed by about three layers of question marks, it’s fair to set expectations to the back half QB1 range. With such an unproven set of circumstances and surroundings, the Bengals may well struggle to push their 25.8 implied team total.

Matchup to watch

If this is going turn into a high-scoring game with the Bengals meeting expectations, it’ll need to come on the back of Joe Mixon. The last we saw him, Mixon went for 138 total yards on 24 touches and scored twice. He’s capable of taking a game over. The trouble is that New Orleans has been a strong run defense all season. The Saints allow just 3.8 yards per carry this year and are fifth in Football Outsiders’ “stuff rate.” The Bengals will have to neutralize the play of Cameron Jordan and Demario Davis, who each lead the team with 14 run stops, per Pro Football Focus.

3. Atlanta Falcons (4-4) at Cleveland Browns (2-6-1)

Total: 50.5
Favorite: Falcons (-4)

The Falcons will head on the road for the second-straight week after thumping Washington in their building. Atlanta’s offense has been hot far more often than not and now goes against a team that’s allowed an average of 72.2 plays per game to be run against them. The Browns also may be without star rookie corner Denzel Ward and just put defensive captain Christian Kirksey on IR. The Falcons could run up and down this stop unit on Sunday. Not only should this help push the total over the 50.5 projected, but we could see Atlanta cover the spread against a spinning Browns squad.

Matchup to watch 

It was Duke Johnson week on Fantasy Twitter. It seemed every analyst had some sort of positive post about him. Johnson caught all nine of his season-high targets for 78 yards and a pair of scores. His re-emergence coincided with the ousting of both Hue Jackson and Todd Haley, but what if it was just a mere coincidence? That’s the range of outcomes, as Johnson’s snap share (46.7 percent) wasn’t anything out of his normal usage. The good news: the Falcons come to town and are, for the fourth-straight season, allowing the most catches to the running back position. Cleveland should also be in a pass-heavy negative game script, allowing Johnson to push for 20-plus routes run again. Even if we have long-term viability concerns, Johnson is usable this week.

4. Washington Redskins (5-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5) 

Total: 51.5
Favorite: Buccaneers (-3)

Despite the disparity in their records, Tampa Bay is a home favorite over Washington. The current NFC East leader didn’t just get bit by the injury bug, they got chomped. The team just lost both of their starting guards and their top field-stretching receiver to season-ending injuries this week. They were already playing without left tackle Trent Williams and their right tackle is a question mark with a malady of his own. Washington is a run-first team that’s built around the aging Adrian Peterson. Offensive line injuries were exactly what they couldn’t afford. This team could start to see its season slip away this week.

Matchup to watch 

Tampa Bay is objectively the worst defense in the NFL and doesn’t have a premier pass-rushing group, but Alex Smith just has too much going against him right now to be a fantasy option. Not only is Washington the 11th most run-heavy team in the NFL this year, but the injuries on the line is also a leak that could rip wide open this week. Alex Smith struggles under the heat of the pass rush, posting a 55.3 passer rating on pressured dropbacks this year. This matchup could be the key to the Bucs securing a win or at least covering the spread.

5. Los Angeles Chargers (6-2) at Oakland Raiders (1-7)

Total: 50
Favorite: Chargers (-10)

The Chargers are double-digit road favorites over the Raiders, who have packed it in for the 2018 season. Los Angeles carries the third-highest implied point total of the week behind the Chiefs and Rams. Both data points show what kind of class the Chargers are in right now. They should have no problem squashing Oakland, which has no tangible team strength right now.

Matchup to watch

Tyrell Williams has played on 80-plus percent of the Chargers snaps in six games this year and he topped out at 92 percent last week. Mike Williams has yet to clear 70 percent this season and cratered to 29 percent in Week 9. The duo still has similar target totals on the year (32 to 30 in favor of Mike). However, Tyrell Williams seems to clearly be the more efficient player. He’s an interesting dart throw against a painfully slow Raiders defense that gives up an NFL-high 14.1 yards per completion. Williams has been a big factor in Philip Rivers’ perfect 158.3 passer rating on play action throws this season.

6. New England Patriots (7-2) at Tennessee Titans (4-4)

Total: 46.5
Favorite: Patriots (-6.5)

We should all know the dangers of buying into what seems like the third “turning point” for the Titans this year. However, the Titans are coming off two strong performance that coincide with Dion Lewis being the clear lead back. Lewis has cleared 60 receiving yards in back-to-back games and held a 53 percent share of the team rush attempts in Week 9. He’s stabilized their offense and is rightfully showcased as what he is: the team’s best offensive player. He’ll take on his former team this week, who is getting rolling on offense themselves. They’ll be looking to exploit another former Patriot in Malcolm Butler, who has allowed an NFL-high 618 yards in coverage this year. If the Titans offense is truly on the right track, this game could easily go over the projected total.

Matchup to watch

Marcus Mariota has essentially had just two strong QB1 weeks this year: Week 4 against Philadelphia and Week 9 against Dallas. Outside of those two contests? He’s gone under 10 fantasy points in all but one of his other starts. The common theme between his two good games, besides the division of the opponent, is his rushing work. He’s totaled 10 carries and scored a rushing touchdown in both of those two big fantasy lines. In a game against the Patriots where the Titans will have to score to keep pace, we should see Mariota take off and scramble a bit more than usual. The Patriots play a heavy dose of man coverage, which always incentivizes a quarterback to run more. With a slow linebacker group in tow, Mariota could come away with his best rushing game of the year.

Is Marcus Mariota getting his groove back? We may see more against New England. (AP Photo/Michael Ainsworth)
Is Marcus Mariota getting his groove back? We may see more against New England. (AP Photo/Michael Ainsworth)

7. Arizona Cardinals (2-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (8-1)

Total: 50
Favorite: Chiefs (-16.5)

While this game has an appealing 50-point total, it’s all Kansas City. The Chiefs have the highest implied point total of the week at 30.3, while Arizona sits second from the bottom with 16.8 thanks to the Bills. The Chiefs are massive favorites but should have no problem handling this squad. Arizona’s soft zone coverage should leave wide open windows for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs passing game. The Cardinals have been run on an NFL-high 270 times and will now face a running back who’s coming into this game red hot.

Matchup to watch  

The offense saw some minor changes go down in the first game of the Byron Leftwich era. One notable bump was given to Larry Fitzgerald, who led the team with 12 targets and 109 air yards. Perhaps this was Leftwich-induced or it could have been a result of Fitzgerald finally getting healthy. He played his highest snap share (97 and 100 percent) since Week 1 in each of the last two games. Fitzgerald is back in the circle of trust, for now, and could once again gobble up targets if the Cardinals fall behind early here.

8. Miami Dolphins (5-4) at Green Bay Packers (3-4-1)

Total: 47.5
Favorite: Packers (-10)

The Packers haven’t looked like a dominant team at all this season but walk into a perfect get-right game here. Miami has scored more than 25 points just once in Brock Osweiler’s four starts and it took overtime against the Bears to get there. Three of those four came at home. Now the Dolphins will travel to Lambeau to match up with a Packers team desperate for a win to stay in the NFC playoff race. They also have to be furious after fumbling away a competitive game in New England last week. The Packers rank top-three in sack rate and should cause plenty of trouble for the Dolphins pass offense. This could get ugly.

Matchup to watch 

With Geronimo Allison out of the picture for the rest of the year, Marquez Valdes-Scantling is officially flirting with the circle of trust. He’s played on 80-plus percent of the snaps in three of the Packers last four games and has target totals of 10, six, five and six. While that low volume makes him tough to bank on, he’s averaged 82.5 air yards per game in that stretch, trailing only Davante Adams. His big-play ability makes him worth chasing in a plus matchup against a Dolphins secondary rotating personnel.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-5) at Indianapolis Colts (3-5)

Total: 47
Favorite: Colts (-3)

The identical records don’t tell the story of the tenor around these two teams’ seasons. The Jaguars are one of the most disappointing operations in the NFL. Despite allowing the fewest passing yards in the league, they’re no longer a big play unit that can bail out their offense. Jacksonville ranks 11th in sack rate and 25th in interception rate. The Colts don’t have the wins to show for it but Andrew Luck has progressed throughout the year. They’ve had young players like Marlon Mack emerge while veterans like Eric Ebron have added playmakers to a shallow roster and most importantly, the offensive line is a plus unit in run and pass blocking. The Colts are a three-point favorite but could outkick the spread here. If they’re to finish the season strong and make a longshot run at the AFC South title, it has to start here.

Matchup to watch

Andrew Luck went into his bye week white hot after going for 22-plus fantasy points in five straight games. He ranks second in the NFL with 23 passing touchdowns and is 4th in pass attempts with 342. The emergence of Marlon Mack hasn’t done anything to ding Luck’s ceiling despite slicing out some volume. On the contrary, he’s just been more efficient with seven combined touchdowns and completion rates over 70 percent in his last two games. With all that positivity, it’s fair to wonder if we really need to be considering any pessimism with Luck despite a matchup with the Jaguars. We really need a heat check on how we view the Jags defense anyway. Playing at home behind a line that’s allowed a league-low 2.8 sack rate, Luck should be protected enough to get over on this defense.

10. Dallas Cowboys (3-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-4)

Total: 43
Favorite: Eagles (-7.5)

The Cowboys come in licking their wounds after suffering an embarrassing home loss to the Tennessee Titans. The 3-5 NFC East team is the epitome of mediocre. There are just too few pieces of dynamism on this roster as currently constructed. The Eagles come off their bye week stocked with an extra passing game weapon in Golden Tate and a quarterback getting better each week. Additionally, the team continues to get healthier on the lines, with Lane Johnson practicing this week in a major shocker and Timmy Jernigan set to see his first action of the 2018 season. With Dallas coming to Philadelphia, the Eagles deserve every bit of their touchdown-plus favorite status.

Matchup to watch

We’re tracking how the two midseason movers at wide receivers are used with their new teams. Amari Cooper got the full run with Dallas last week, playing on 84.7 percent of the snaps, drawing eight targets and running a team-high 35 routes. The Cowboys offense is too dysfunctional to confidently project anyone right now but he gets a good spot here against a defense allowing the sixth-most (1,534) yards to wide receivers this season. We have no clue as to how Golden Tate will be deployed and while he’s a risky bet, he’s still intriguing. Dallas has given up the second-fewest catches and yards to wide receivers this season and their top perimeter corner, Byron Jones, has allowed a 48 percent catch rate in his coverage. The Eagles may look to attack the Cowboys over the middle with their newest slot receiver and their duo of gifted tight ends.

11. New York Giants (1-7) at San Francisco 49ers (2-7)

Total: 44
Favorite: 49ers (-3)

The 49ers get the edge here because they’re at home but also appear to be the team still fighting to keep momentum this year. The Giants have all but packed it in and were content to sell off players for picks at the trade deadline. New York still has enough offensive weapons to make this interesting. Odell Beckham runs over 50 percent of his routes away from left cornerbacks and should avoid Richard Sherman in this spot. It has little effect on the viability of their team, but Saquon Barkley is always a threat for a big game. He could make moves on an opponent who’s allowed 4.0 yards per carry and seven scores on the ground. The 49ers still remain the more intriguing team with Nick Mullens set to get a second start. The young passer kept his stud tight end George Kittle involved and even broke Pierre Garcon’s scoreless San Francisco streak. He might be real enough to keep this team hanging around, so they deserve their favorite status here.

Matchup to watch 

Mullens Mania should continue for another week. The 49ers were able to destroy Oakland’s secondary on play action throws, as Mullens used it on 45.5 percent of his plays in Week 9 and managed a 142.1 passer rating. Kyle Shanahan just schemes things up for his quarterbacks so well and Mullens will benefit for another week. While Oakland’s defense was a cakewalk matchup, the Giants aren’t much better. New York is just a few spots higher than the Raiders in sack rate, ranking 30th with 3.5 percent.

12. Detroit Lions (3-5) at Chicago Bears (5-3)

Total: 45
Favorite: Bears (-6.5)  

The Bears have shown the ability to win in multiple ways this year. Occasionally it’s the defense carrying the way, which allows them to play conservative on offense. We’ve also seen them win by opening up the passing game. This Week 10 divisional matchup could truly go either way. The Lions have been out-classed in two straight games and just gave up a whopping 10 sacks on Matthew Stafford against the Vikings last week. This team could be trending in the wrong direction and a trip into Chicago is hardly what the doctor ordered. Khalil Mack and Allen Robinson should return for this one, after essentially getting rested against the hapless Bills in Week 10. If Mack is back, the Lions could truly go down in flames.

Matchup to watch

If this is going to be a conservative, slow-paced game plan from Matt Nagy to match the game script, Jordan Howard is once again a fantasy play. The Bears haven’t taken a single snap while trailing the last two weeks and Howard piled up 36 carries in that span. He hasn’t been efficient, going under four yards per carry in both games, but the volume has put him in position to pop in three scores. The Lions have allowed north of five yards per carry all season, so Howard should be in position to thrive.

13. Buffalo Bills (2-7) at New York Jets (3-6) 

Total: 36.5
Favorite: Jets (-7)

The Bills won’t be the only AFC East team heading into this matchup down their starting rookie quarterback. Sam Darnold will miss several games with a foot injury. Despite the line moving from Jets -8 to -7, it’s hard to see New York moving to proven veteran Josh McCown as a tangible downgrade given how Darnold was playing coming into Week 10. The rookie had tossed seven interceptions to just two touchdowns over his last three games. McCown ranked top-15 in completion rate, passer rating and yards per attempt last season. He’s more than viable enough to get them through this stretch. The Bills will likely have no choice but to roll out Nathan Peterman again this week. He’s been so bad that fans are fundraising money to get him to retire. The Jets have their issues but are indeed a clear favorite here.

Matchup to watch  

With so little fantasy appeal in this game, not much bears watching. We should keep our eyes on two playing time splits in the Jets offense, however. Two intriguing youngsters led their respective positions in snaps with Chris Herndon at tight end (64 percent) and Elijah McGuire (55 percent). Injuries were likely the root cause for Herndon but he was due a promotion given his scoring rate. McGuire’s bump was notable, given that this was his first game action of the year. He caught three of five targets for 37 yards. The Jets offense isn’t the best soil to grow fantasy development but these two may just matter down the stretch.

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