Updated 11/15 at 11:55 AM ET. Made wind adjustments for HOU/CLE, JAC/GB and CIN/PIT.
Week 10 Receivers
WR Notes: The Jaguars are allowing 280 passing yards per game and 8.5 yards per attempt. That might be a problem against Davante Adams. … Stefon Diggs has reached six receptions in every game but one. The Cardinals keep collecting veteran castoff corners for their shaky secondary. Patrick Peterson has no shot at slowing Diggs in a game with a 56.5 over/under. … Opposing Diggs will be DeAndre Hopkins, who has caught three or fewer balls in two of his past three starts. He will see a heavy dose of Tre'Davious White, but White currently checks in as just the No. 48 cornerback in Pro Football Focus’ ratings. … Might DK Metcalf draw Jalen Ramsey’s shadow? The Rams are using Ramsey in a variety of ways, but DC Brandon Staley has hinted it’s a possibility. Not even Ramsey could hope to do more than slow Seattle’s 6-foot-4 Frankenstein, who has reached 90 yards in 7-of-8 appearances. … Save for his back injury shortened Week 5, Keenan Allen has caught at least seven passes in every one of Justin Herbert’s starts. That includes at least nine each of the past three weeks. Allen spends enough time in the slot that Xavien Howard and Byron Jones should not cramp his Week 10 style.
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Michael Thomas finally gets to play someone who isn’t the Bucs. The 49ers no longer have a cornerback corps. It’s probably too late for many first round Thomas drafters, but his 2020 season should officially start on Sunday. … Terry McLaurin did most of the work for Alex Smith in Week 9. McLaurin’s averaged targeted air yards, 9.8, is smack dab in the middle of the pack. That will come down under Smith, but not ruinously so. The Lions are a strong initial Smith matchup. … Allen Robinson hasn’t had a 100-yard day since Week 5, though he has reached at least 70 each of the past three weeks. He is averaging 79. The Vikings remain hopelessly undermanned in their cornerback corps. … Amongst healthy, every-week players, Will Fuller is the WR13 by average points in half PPR. With touchdowns in six straight starts, he has been consistent after all. The Browns cough up the fifth most receiver fantasy points. … Somewhat inexplicably, Tyler Lockett is settling into his 2019 habit of piling up all his yards in a select handful of games. With DK Metcalf set for hand-to-hand combat with Jalen Ramsey, there is a good chance this is one of them for Seattle’s No. 2.
A.J. Brown has scored every contest since his Week 5 return. He is 13th in receiver YAC despite making only six appearances. We would still like more targets, but his after-the-catch dominance makes him matchup proof even for tough dates like Thursday’s with the Colts. … Cooper Kupp was historically inefficient in Week 8 before the Rams’ bye, turning 20 targets into just 110 yards. Coming off arguably the worst single game performance by any pass defense all season, the Seahawks will be more forgiving for Week 10. … Right behind Kupp is Robert Woods, who has been an overall disappointment. It’s just that, no one disappoints against the Seahawks. … Jerry Jeudy has come on strong in back-to-back plus matchups. The Raiders will vie to be the third. Only six teams allow more passing yards. … Robby Anderson has yet to catch fewer than four passes and has corralled fewer than five once. He hasn’t had a ceiling game lately, but his usage remains right where we want it to be for a WR2. A tough Bucs matchup is boosted by a 50.5. over/under. … As for Anderson’s teammate D.J. Moore, he has drawn more than six looks once in his past seven games. Curtis Samuel has out-targeted him 20-14 over the past three weeks. That WR2 center cannot hold.
Brandin Cooks is the WR8 by average points since Bill O’Brien’s firing. The Browns surrender the fifth most receiver fantasy points. … Ex- Chargers slot man Desmond King would not have shadowed DeVante Parker this weekend, but his trade weakens the Chargers’ entire defense. With Preston Williams (foot) out and Isaiah Ford dealt, Parker’s targets floor is screaming upward. … Even if you subtract his 73-yard touchdown, Week 9 would have been D.J. Chark’s second best game of the season. Jaire Alexander (concussion, hand) has yet to resume practicing. … The Bengals are a great matchup for every one of the Steelers’ big three in JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool, though Cincinnati has had surprisingly strong coverage in the slot. That is JuJu’s territory. For all Claypool’s upside, Johnson continues to receive 10 targets every time he’s healthy. Just know I am mostly drawing straws here. … If the Steelers’ receiver trio all have good matchups, the Bengals’ all have bad ones. Tyler Boyd’s targets give him the lead. A.J. Green gets a boost from this week’s game environment — read lots of passes for Cincinnati — but Tee Higgins has earned his rank ahead of Green the hard way. … Allen Lazard is returning for a great matchup, but he is on WR4 probation as the Packers assess his health and role.
Adam Thielen is averaging 57 yards in six games since Justin Jefferson’s Week 3 blowup, exceeding 51 yards twice. Especially for a tough matchup like Sunday’s with the Bears, I think it is time for a rankings reset. For his part, Jefferson oozes upside, but he’s exceeded five targets twice all season. He packs quite a wallop for a WR3, but that’s what his usage has been. … Brandon Aiyuk is 14/206/1 on 17 targets over his past two games. With Deebo Samuel (hamstring) and Kendrick Bourne (COVID-19) still sidelined, the Week 10 world is Aiyuk’s targets oyster against the Saints. ... I simply do not know what to do with the Bucs’ receivers. I will make another volume bet on Chris Godwin, though it is Mike Evans crying out for squeaky wheel treatment after coach Bruce Arians publicly chastised Tom Brady for missing him too many times in Week 9. Antonio Brown remains the projections black swan. Brown is a WR4 until further notice. … With a bye week to get Dallas Goedert and Jalen Reagor healthier, this will be the ultimate test of Travis Fulgham’s WR2/3 staying power. He went 5/73 against the Giants in Week 7. … Even on limited volume, Christian Kirk’s big plays have become common enough to get him in the WR3 ranks. … Jakobi Meyers is cooking, but will Isaiah Ford’s addition lower his targets floor in the middle of the field? … It’s a great matchup for Jarvis Landry, but is he healthy enough to contribute more than low-end WR3 numbers?