Week 10 Early Line Movement

Warren Sharp
·6 min read

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

This divisional clash on Thursday night has seen some toggling between 2.5 and 1.5, but any significant line movement yet we should be aware of. The Titans opened as -2 point favorites on the lookahead and still sit at -2 point favorites right now. The total opened at 49.5 and is down one point to 48.5.

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns

The lookahead was the home team Browns -2.5, with the Browns on a bye. The Texans survived against the Jaguars despite a late scare, but this line reopened lower, at -1.5. It quickly took Browns money, and was bet back to -2.5 within an hour of reopening. Since then, money has come in on the Browns, driving the line to -3 (-120). The total opened at 54 and has been bet down due to forecasted high winds. The total currently sits at 51.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers

As near touchdown underdogs, this line has not seen much movement at all. The lookahead was -13.5. The reopen was -13.5. It ticked up to -14, which lasted about a day, and since has taken two half-point moves, to -13.5 and then to -13. The total has been bet down from 53 to 51.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

A battle for NFC East supremacy at 1pm ET on Sunday looms, and the Eagles are -3.5 point favorites, which is the same as the line opened. The Giants are off a win in Washington and played Tom Brady’s Bucs strong the week prior. This line has taken money and action on both sides of this number, with multiple smacks on the Giants +3.5 dropping the line to Eagles -3, followed by Eagles -3 being bet, driving the line back up to -3.5. The Eagles are off a bye and are getting healthier. This total opened at 42 and has since moved up to 44.5.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Prior to the destruction at the hands of the Saints, the lookahead of this game was the Bucs -6. That number was bet up to -6.5 before Sunday’s games. After Sunday night’s slaughter, books still had this line -6 and it stayed between -6 and -6.5 for the next day. But starting on Tuesday, Panthers money rolled in, dropping this line to -5.5 then -5 and then -4.5. However, the news that Christian McCaffrey will miss the game caused some Bucs money to enter the market. This line currently sits between 5 and 5.5 points. The total opened at 48 and has been bet higher, up to 50.5.

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Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders

The lookahead here was Raiders -4. Las Vegas beat the Chargers and the Broncos lost to the Falcons, and this line took early Raiders money after reopen, moving up from -4 to -4.5 to -5. The total opened at 50.5 and now sits at 51.5. Denver is unlikely to score 21 points in the fourth quarter as they’ve done in back-to-back weeks, so they’ve got to figure out a way to start earlier in games.

Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals

Both teams are off games last week that drew large audiences. The Bills had a huge win over the Seahawks as underdogs. The Cardinals were upset at home by Tua’s Dolphins. The lookahead on this game was the Cardinals -2.5. When the games reopened, that line was down to -2. Early Bills money drove this game down to a pick’em, before Cardinals money reentered the market and increased the line back to -2. The total opened at 54.5 and is up 1.5 points to 56.

Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins

The Chargers lost another heartbreaker to the Raiders last week, while Tua recorded his second win in as many starts. The line opened initially at Miami -1.5. It reopened at -1, but has taken Dolphins money all week, raising that number to -2.5. The total opened at 50 but has taken under money, dropping the total down to 48.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

The lookahead on this game was Steelers -10, but Pittsburgh narrowly escaped Dallas with a win despite being a -14 point favorite. The line reopened at -9.5, but took immediate Bengals money. This number is currently off the board due to COVID issues, but the last number was Pittsburgh -7.5 with a 47.5 point total.

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams

Yet another game seeing a home team favored by less than 3 points, the lookahead was Rams -2, and it currently sits at -1.5. The total hasn’t changed from where it was originally lined at 55.5.

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints

The largest mover of the week, this line was originally set at Saints -6.5. But then the Saints destroyed the Bucs in primetime. And the line reopened at -8.5. It has since taken one-way Saints money and rose as high as -9.5 and -10 at some spots. The total opened at 51 and is down to 50.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots

The lookahead on this traditionally entertaining battle was Baltimore -6.5 in New England. But the Ravens won in Indianapolis and the Patriots squeaked by the Jets on Monday night. As a result, this line was reopened at Ravens -7.5. However, Patriots backers didn’t take to that line, and bet it down to -7, which is where it sits at present. The total opened at 41.5 and has been bet up to 43.5.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

This Monday night tilt saw a reversal in favorite. The Bears were projected to lose to the Titans last week while the Vikings were projected to narrowly beat the Lions. The Vikings dominated in their win and the Bears looked hapless in their loss. The lookahead was Bears -2, but when this line reopened, the Vikings were 2.5 point favorites, which is where this line currently sits, with some spots trending to -3. This a large swing, particularly when it reaches 3 naturally. The total has been bet up slightly from 44.5 to 45.