This week, Draft Kings trotted out Kedon Slovis at O/U 293.5 Passing Yards and had it bet into oblivion within a half hour, causing it to be pulled down. It was reminiscent of last week's Emory Jones debacle where they put him up at 198.5 Pass Yards despite Anthony Richardson drawing the start. King Doerue was another gift at 49.5 Rush Yards with Zander Horvath looking ready to take on a bigger workload this week in his return from injury.
Moral of the story - The early bird gets the worm when it comes to CFB player props.
Take Notice, and be ready to hop on the low hanging fruit on Friday afternoon. Onto this week's slate:
Dennis Grosel O/U 173.5 Passing Yards (FanDuel)
Rumors are swirling that Phil Jurkoved could be back from his hand injury. Regardless, Grosel was so terrible last week against Syracuse that he got pulled for freshman Emmett Moorehead after going 9-for-17 for 93 passing yards and a 28.3 QBR. For his part, Moorehead wasn’t great either, completing 6-of-15 passes for 87 yards, but he has youth on his side and if BC’s sluggish offense continues to underperform under Grosel against Virginia Tech (HINT: He 100% will) then expect to see Moorehead again.
The Hokies have a very solid against the pass as well, ranking 36th in overall pass defense and allow just 6.8 Yards Per Pass Attempt (37th) according to CFB Winning Edge’s analytics, in addition to rating 21st in passing success rate against. The only issue is going to be making sure Grosel actually gets a snap, because if he does this bet is a lock. Grosel UNDER 173.5 is my Play of the Week.
Tyrion Davis-Price O/U 58.5 Rush Yards (Draft Kings)
It was a magical ride for “The Imp” Lord Tyrion Davis-Price, but his two straight games of 100-yards rushing is a distant memory now. He no longer has the luxury of being the exclusive running back in Baton Rouge, as Corey Kiner has returned from injury, carrying 10 times for 49 yards last game against Ole Miss’ 94th ranked run defense. For his part, TDP rushed 17 times for 53 yards last game, and had failed to clear the 57.5 yard mark in each of his games prior to his explosions against Kentucky and Florida.
This week he has the displeasure of taking on a stout Alabama defense that ranks 5th in the nation and should find it to be tough sledding this Saturday. Take the UNDER on TDP’s 58.5 Rushing Yards before DK pulls it down, as it started at 65.5 before getting hammered.
Trelon Smith O/U 58.5 Pass Yards (Draft Kings)
There are a lot of mouths to feed in the Arkansas backfield, with Raheim “Rocket” Sanders posting 16 carries for 64 yards against Auburn, while Trelon Smith got just 10 totes for 48 yards. If that weren’t bad enough, Dominique Johnson went for 42 yards on six carries and A.J. Green chipped in with 4 carries for 12 yards. That carry distribution held steady the previous game against Ole Miss in a prodigious shootout, with Sanders out-carrying Trelon 17-to-11, with the other two splitting 7 carries between them. It’s basically a settled backfield at this point, with Smith firmly in the RB2 role. That’s before we even mention QB K.J. Jefferson’s 20 carries.
To further complicate matters, Mississippi State’s run defense is nasty. They rank 27th in rushing success rate, 17th in marginal efficiency and 24th in stuff rate. The Bulldogs also rank 20th in overall defense and just annihilated Kentucky last week, who i’ve heard likes to run the ball a bit. With a crowded backfield and a brutal matchup, i’m backing the UNDER 58.5 Rush Yards on Trelon.
Will Rogers O/U 1.5 Passing TDs (Draft Kings)
On the other side of that contest, Will Rogers opened on DK at O/U 315.5 Passing Yards which lasted less than 5 minutes before it got pulled down. Some whale swam by and emptied their clip all over that prop before the rest of the public got a hold of it. However Rogers’ Passing TDs O/U is still up and rolling, which is good for us since Rogers has gone OVER on the touchdown pass mark 6 out of the 7 non-Alabama games in which he has played in.
The Razorbacks have given up 37, 52 and 38 points over their past three games against SEC opponents. Miss State is rocking right now, winning three of their last four games while throwing for 313 yards per game. It’s not exactly a secret that MSU’s air-raid offense chucks the ball. I’m hitting the OVER 1.5 Touchdown Passes for Rogers and expect it to be in the books by halftime.
Chris Rodriguez O/U 67.5 Rushing Yards (Draft Kings)
Heading into UK’s game against Georgia, Chris Rodriguez had been leading the SEC in rushing before sustaining an injury late in their game against LSU on October 9 which has hampered his ability to contribute. He saw only seven carries against Georgia the week after before being blessed with a bye week and receiving 8 carries for 34 yards to go with two catches for 23 yards in a game where UK got down early against Mississippi State and had to throw the ball to play catch up for the remainder of the contest.
Regarding his injury, OC Liam Cohen had this to say about CRod ahead of this week’s game, “I think he had a great practice yesterday. He was locked in, focused, detailed, and the same thing today. You can always tell when a player is, you don’t have to beat it into them. He knows it hasn’t been good enough, and it’s not to his standard, not to our standard. I believe that he’ll come out with a different mentality and the right mentality for the game Saturday night.”
In Mark Stoops’ press conference on Thursday, he was emphatic about Rodriguez’ readiness stating, “He has not been healthy, I said it four times last week. This week he took every snap in every practice, that was something he was unable to do heading into Mississippi State. He wasn’t at 100%, he wasn’t himself. I think he'll be just fine (against Arkansas).”
With Stoops being a rare college coach who has been pretty honest about CRod’s health, there’s no reason to believe that the Kentucky mauler won’t be back to his usual form after having a month to recover from his ailment. I think he crushes the OVER on 67.5 Rush Yards against a Tennessee defense that ranks 45th in overall rushing performance and allows a 42% success rate on the ground (56th) while ranking 81st in rushing marginal efficiency.