Way-too-early NFL Power Rankings: The Chiefs' winning ways might just be starting

Maybe Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow will just be Patrick Ewing. Or Charles Barkley or Karl Malone.

Burrow said about winning a Super Bowl, "The window is my whole career," and while that's a great line and Burrow is a remarkable player, it's also possible he, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence and whoever else will become the NFL's Ewing, Barkley and Malone, with great careers but no rings because they happened to play in the same era as the NFL's Michael Jordan.

The Kansas City Chiefs traded receiver Tyreek Hill, who was an All-Pro this season, got no veteran help back in that trade, didn't make a single huge addition in free agency and still won a Super Bowl . The rest of the NFL has to be disheartened. If the Chiefs can trade one of the best players in football and still finish on top, what chance does the rest of the league have?

A lot of great things are said about Patrick Mahomes, and you might be growing sick of them already, but there's no denying that Mahomes is on a different tier than everyone else. When the Chiefs took over possession in Super Bowl LVII with a little more than five minutes left in a tie game, the only question was whether the Philadelphia Eagles would get the ball back with enough time to match what Mahomes would do. A stop there, even for an Eagles defense that was fantastic until the Super Bowl, seemed impossible. And Mahomes got that game-winning drive, leaving the Eagles only eight seconds on the clock.

The Chiefs have some questions this offseason. Andy Reid has danced around the subject of possible retirement. Travis Kelce was great at age 33, but he's still doing something no other tight end ever has at his age, and the Chiefs' offense without Kelce at his peak wouldn't be the same. There's a big issue of whether Kansas City can re-sign left tackle Orlando Brown, a free agent. The Chiefs' defense is still a constant work in progress.

But it seems silly to worry about most of that, considering the Chiefs shipped off Hill and never missed him. The Chiefs had a really good draft with multiple rookies playing big roles in the Super Bowl. They have extra fourth- and sixth-round picks in this draft still coming from the Hill trade. There are roadblocks when your quarterback has a $46.8 million 2023 salary cap hit, but the Chiefs are actually set up pretty well around Mahomes for the next few years.

On one hand, the Chiefs should be challenged for years. The talent in the AFC, particularly at quarterback, is impressive. That should make it very hard for the Chiefs to keep winning Super Bowls.

But it should have been hard this season, when the Chiefs were retooling a bit on the fly and still won a Super Bowl. If the rest of the NFL wasn't able to catch up to the Chiefs this season, it might not happen for a while.

Here are the power rankings as we start the NFL offseason. These rankings will change a lot over the next few weeks and months, but consider this a snapshot of where your team stands heading into the offseason (with this past season's record in parentheses):

32. Houston Texans (3-13-1)

The Texans were remarkably lucky that a former great player happened to be one of the top coaching candidates this cycle and wanted to come back to Houston. DeMeco Ryans was a great hire, the type of hire the dysfunctional Texans weren't going to make without a stroke of good fortune. Hopefully Ryans can stabilize that franchise.

31. Arizona Cardinals (4-13)

The Cardinals took a while to get a head coach before landing Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon. It's possible it took the Cards a while because the job, especially with Kyler Murray's contract and current ACL injury, is a tough sell. The Cardinals look like they're a long way from being a playoff team.

30. Indianapolis Colts (4-12-1)

The Colts' coaching search was long but at least it didn't land on Jeff Saturday as the answer. The job went to Shane Steichen, the Eagles' offensive coordinator who has a great reputation as an offensive mind. Now he just needs a quarterback to work with.

29. Chicago Bears (3-14)

It makes a ton of sense for the Bears to move down from No. 1 in the draft to No. 4 with the Colts. Even better if they can move first to No. 2 with the Texans (if Houston has one QB target they don't want to miss on), then trade with the Colts. If the Bears are at No. 4 and two quarterbacks go in the top three, they'd still get an elite defensive prospect and a lot of extra picks.

28. New Orleans Saints (7-10)

Will Derek Carr land in New Orleans? It makes sense for both sides. The Saints need him. The issue is the cap, which again is a mess for New Orleans. But no franchise does better at getting out the credit card and putting those big cap hits into the future.

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)

Tom Brady's retirement wasn't that surprising, but it starts a new reality for the Buccaneers. They have a roster built to win now, and a quarterback quandary and cap problem that screams for a rebuild. There should be zero regrets over the Brady era, but this day of reckoning was part of that package.

26. Atlanta Falcons (7-10)

The Falcons have a ton of cap space, the second-most in the NFL at the moment, according to Spotrac (the Bears have the most, by a wide margin). Given that GM Terry Fontenot and coach Arthur Smith are 14-20 through two seasons, there might be some desperation to win in Year 3. That and the cap flexibility could make things interesting.

25. Denver Broncos (5-12)

The path to landing Sean Payton was strange at times, but ultimately the Broncos landed a very good coach. It cost them, and the price to get Payton and Russell Wilson is astonishing, but they needed a head coach to clean up this mess. Now we find out if Payton can fix Wilson. If he can't, it's a lost cause.

24. Washington Commanders (8-8-1)

It has to be disappointing that the Commanders are seemingly on the fence about defensive end Chase Young's fifth-year option. When he won NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2020 it looked like it would be a no-brainer. He has played 12 games with 1.5 sacks since then.

“Well, what goes into that is you get an opportunity to sit down, look at his tape with our scouts, talk about the way he played, what do we see in terms of development and growth?” Commanders coach Ron Rivera said, via Richmond.com. “We’re going to sit down with the doctors, with the trainers. ‘Where is he? How do you feel, is this something that is going to be long-term? Hey, no worries — as long as nothing crazy happens, he’s going to be fine, it’s worth the risk.’"

23. Tennessee Titans (7-10)

The Titans are teetering on the edge of falling off. Ryan Tannehill might not even be around for another season. Derrick Henry is unbelievable but he can't last forever. Mike Vrabel is an outstanding coach and we can't underestimate his ability to get more out of the Titans than seems possible, but the roster has some big questions.

22. Las Vegas Raiders (6-11)

Whoever the Raiders' next quarterback is, bet on it being someone with ties the Patriots. Old Bill Belichick assistants are predictable that way. The Raiders are OK on the cap, which probably means they're re-signing Josh Jacobs. Jacobs was incredible last season, but the track record of running backs on a second contract isn't good.

21. Carolina Panthers (7-10)

Frank Reich was a good hire. Reich is a good coach who was stuck with a revolving door at quarterback for the Colts. The problem is, he's joining another team that needs a quarterback. The best guess is the Panthers find a way to draft a permanent solution, because it seems unlikely Reich would sign up for another endless carousel of washed-up veterans.

20. Cleveland Browns (7-10)

Kevin Stefanski is officially on the Matt Nagy path. It's either going to turn back around for the former NFL Coach of the Year in his fourth Cleveland season, or he'll be the latest coach to win that award his first season and fall off fast afterward. And while there are plenty of improvements that can be made to the roster in the offseason, his success rests heavily on how Deshaun Watson plays next season.

19. New England Patriots (8-9)

You know the Patriots were bad at offensive coordinator last season when hiring Bill O'Brien seems like a reason to celebrate. O'Brien got pretty bad with his trade decisions but he is a solid offensive coordinator. That will help, but the rest of the AFC East seems to be passing the Patriots by.

18. Green Bay Packers (8-9)

It's hard to move on from a player like Aaron Rodgers, but it does seem like a good time for it. The Packers took a step back last season. They can get plenty back in a trade. Rodgers will be 40 next season. It's now or never for that Jordan Love investment. And the Packers have to be like everyone else: exhausted from the constant Rodgers drama.

17. Seattle Seahawks (9-8)

It would be surprising if the Seahawks and Geno Smith don't work out a contract after Smith had a surprising season that earned him NFL Comeback Player of the Year honors. Assuming Smith is back, the offense is on good footing with Smith's improvement and a good draft. The defense needs some work though.

16. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8)

The Steelers should feel good about Kenny Pickett after some promising moments as a rookie, but there is some improvement that has to happen. That's normal for any quarterback. The Steelers should feel pretty good that this was practically a rebuilding season and they still finished with a winning record.

15. New York Jets (7-10)

Hopefully the Jets don’t end up like the 2021 and 2022 Broncos, getting their hopes up for Aaron Rodgers, making decisions based on that hope, then making a big mistake when Rodgers stays in Green Bay. The Jets are already going down that road, hiring Rodgers' buddy, Nathaniel Hackett, as their offensive coordinator. It’s easy to get excited for a Jets team with that kind of an upgrade at QB, but be wary of going all in on that chance.

14. New York Giants (9-7-1)

The Giants seem likely to re-sign Daniel Jones, and it has to be a little scary. Jones played well, but he's going to cost a lot and there have to be questions about where he ranks at the position. But after the season he had with Brian Daboll, it's hard to imagine he's not back in New York.

13. Los Angeles Rams (5-12)

The offseason has gone as well as the Rams could have hoped to this point. They got Sean McVay back. Aaron Donald says he's coming back too. The Rams have dealt away draft picks and their cap isn't in great shape, but just having a healthy nucleus back is huge.

12. Baltimore Ravens (10-7)

Well, we all know what the story is. Can the Ravens get Lamar Jackson signed, do they trade him or do they use the franchise tag and pray that Jackson is happy with it? This is a franchise-changing situation for the Ravens this offseason.

11. Miami Dolphins (9-8)

The Dolphins don't have much cap space, and they also don't have first-, fourth- and sixth-round picks after trading them away (they do have an extra third). There won't be many avenues to improve the roster, which is OK because Miami was pretty good this past season. Of course, the only thing that really matters is Tua Tagovailoa's health after his scary season with multiple concussions.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)

The Jaguars spent big last offseason and they're not in great cap shape to do much more this offseason. That's OK, because the shrewd move to trade for Calvin Ridley — ahead of a pretty soft receiver free-agent market — is Jacksonville's big offseason addition.

9. Minnesota Vikings (13-4)

Tyreek Hill's contract is for $30 million per year. Davante Adams is behind him at $28 million. Justin Jefferson's asking price, after winning NFL Offensive Player of the Year, has to be well above that. It will be an interesting offseason with the Vikings fitting that contract in their cap.

8. Dallas Cowboys (12-5)

I'm not sure the Mike McCarthy/Brian Schottenheimer duo running the offense is really what will unlock the next level for Dak Prescott, but that's what they're trying. We also need to see if the Cowboys are willing to admit that Ezekiel Elliott isn't worth his salary anymore and move on.

7. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7)

Adding Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator should be a plus. The Chargers had little in the way of a vertical passing game last season, which is shocking given they have Justin Herbert at quarterback, but also somewhat understandable because there are no pure deep threats on the roster. That needs to be corrected by next season.

6. Detroit Lions (9-8)

The Lions will be bringing mostly everyone back next year, which is exciting after the way Detroit ended the season. This will be everyone's hot pick to win the NFC North and maybe more next season.

5. San Francisco 49ers (13-4)

The 49ers will be on a tightrope with their quarterback. Brock Purdy's elbow should be good by next season, but what if it's not? The 49ers seem to be totally out on Trey Lance. You can't go sign a top quarterback in August if Purdy's elbow isn't 100 percent. And it's still fair to wonder what Purdy's true level will be as a quarterback. The 49ers are set up well, but the QB question will linger.

4. Buffalo Bills (13-3)

It’s pretty much the same story for the Bills. They’re talented enough to win the Super Bowl. The playoffs are competitive and for some teams, the coin never flips on their side. The Bills would benefit from getting help around Josh Allen, but that’s easier said than done.

3. Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)

The Bengals are in great shape. They have some key free agents (tight end Hayden Hurst, safeties Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell, and linebacker Germaine Pratt) but plenty of cap space. There's no reason the Bengals can't get right back to the AFC championship game. And they are one of the few teams that has beaten the Mahomes-led Chiefs on a big stage before.

2. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)

Jalen Hurts was awesome in the Super Bowl, and he has established himself as a top quarterback. That means he'll be paid like a top quarterback. It's not impossible to win as your quarterback's cap hit jumps up from $1.64 million in 2022 to $35 million or more in future years, but it's a lot harder. That's the challenge the Eagles have to navigate to stay on top.

1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-3)

If the Chiefs have another draft as good as last year's, they'll set themselves up really well around Patrick Mahomes for a few years. The Chiefs are getting a lot out of first- and second-year players, which is scary.