Watch the Cowboys top 5 offensive plays of 2020 by EPA
Many offensive plays from the Dallas Cowboys’ 2020 season stand out, from CeeDee Lamb’s twisting endzone grab to Dak Prescott’s first career touchdown reception. But which ones did the most damage in terms of EPA?
EPA measures the value of any individual play in terms of expected points, by calculating the scoring probability based where the team is on the field, the down and distance, and the time remaining in the game. The increase (or decrease) in scoring probability after the play is expressed in terms of Expected Points Added, and provides a different lens through which to view the game. These are the plays where the Dallas offense most helped their cause, the big plays which most contributed toward putting points on the board. Their sources might be a little surprising.
EPA stats via nflfastR Play Index.
No. 5: Week 15 vs San Francisco, RB Tony Pollard 40-yard TD run - 4.50 EPA
The 2020 season was a mini-breakout of sorts for former the Memphis RB, now entering his third year. Pollard saw an uptick in his usage in the offense, earning more rushing attempts and passing targets from his rookie season, although the efficiency wasn't there. Pollard's rushing yards per attempt fell a full yard, from 5.3 to 4.3, and his receiving yards per target similarly fell from 5.4 to 4.8. But the numbers don't entirely do Pollard justice, because he had several breathtaking runs that showed why the Cowboys want the ball in his hands. He was given the keys in Week 15, earning the start while Ezekiel Elliott was inactive due to a calf injury. Pollard made the most of his opportunity, generating 132 total yards of offense and scoring two touchdowns. This 40 yarder through what seems like the entire San Francisco defense was his best by EPA. https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1340766243045851136 Somewhat notably, this is the only rushing play among the Cowboys' offense top 5, and it doesn't belong to Elliott. The run game has been a longtime staple in Dallas, but it left a lot to be desired in 2020, especially considering how heavily invested the team is in the area. Tweaking the run game to ensure the Cowboys get the most out of it should be a point of emphasis in 2021.
No. 4: Week 3 @ Seattle, WR Cedrick Wilson 42-yard TD reception - 4.52 EPA
It's been a very stop-and-start beginning to WR Cedrick Wilson's career, but he also stood out in 2020, especially when Prescott was throwing to him. His first reception of last season went for a 40-yard touchdown, during a fun back-and-forth Week 3 battle against Seattle. Wilson scored again in the second half, outrunning the Seahawk secondary in a race toward the end zone for a 42-yard score. https://twitter.com/nflmx/status/1310352334220931072 That was by far Wilson's best game of the season, as he recorded 107 of his 189 total receiving yards that week. But he still had the attention of Dallas coaches, who made a concerted effort to get Wilson involved. Along with his 17 receptions last season, he also took three handoffs, attempted two passes, and returned five punts. Wilson was at the center of many trick plays, including a memorable Music City Miracle-inspired special teams play with C.J. Goodwin. He's a player who could see an expanded role in 2021, especially if Prescott is back at the helm.
No. 3: Week 3 @ Seattle, WR Michael Gallup 43-yard TD reception - 4.65 EPA
Despite playing in just five games, it's telling just how much Prescott still occupies many of the Cowboys' 2020 offensive leaderboards. He makes another appearance here, which maybe isn't surprising considering Prescott's monster 472 yard, three TD performance against Seattle. This beautifully thrown ball to WR Michael Gallup helped bring the Cowboys back in the game, and generated their third-most EPA of any offensive play last year. https://twitter.com/PFF_Fantasy/status/1310356918561583109
No. 2: Week 16 vs Philadelphia, WR Amari Cooper 69-yard reception - 4.77 EPA
At No. 2 is Amari Cooper's longest reception of the season, a 69-yard catch-and-run on a day when he tormented the Philadelphia secondary. While Andy Dalton gets credit for these passing yards, the majority of the heavy lifting is done by Cooper. From the route he runs to what he does after the catch, what Cooper does here is a thing of beauty, basically single-handedly bringing the Cowboys from their own 22 to the Philadelphia 9. https://twitter.com/BleacherReport/status/1343338866544160768
No. 1: Week 16 vs Philadelphia, WR CeeDee Lamb 52-yard TD reception - 4.97 EPA
Dallas' biggest offensive play by EPA last year also came in Week 16, when WR CeeDee Lamb slipped his man at the line of scrimmage and just kept running. Dalton put it on him, and 52-yards later the beatdown was on. https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1343334691483525120 The stakes couldn't have been any lower during this late-season NFC East matchup, which saw both teams trying to scratch for the privilege of being the division's sub .500 representative in the playoffs. But the Cowboys at least got their win back after falling to Philadelphia earlier in the year, and did so in spectacular fashion. After falling behind 14-3 early, the Cowboys roared back and outscored Philadelphia 34-3, shutting them out in the second half. This was Lamb fifth and final receiving touchdown of the season, and really broke the game open. Lamb even added a cherry on top with a 19-yard TD run in the fourth quarter, in what's hopefully just the beginning of many years of him lighting up the Eagles.
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