Wales face Armenia in Yerevan on Saturday before concluding their campaign by hosting Turkey on Tuesday.
That is Turkey’s sole remaining game – they are currently clear at the top of the group on 16 points with qualification certain, and a win or draw will secure their spot as group winners.
Wales are currently level on 10 points with Croatia, each side having played six games. The 2018 World Cup finalists take on struggling Latvia before finishing their group efforts against Armenia.
Regardless of Croatia’s results, though, two wins from two will be enough for Wales to reach Euro 2024. This is due to their superior head-to-head record over Croatia, drawing the away fixture in Split in March and then securing a 2-1 win in Cardiff last month.
If Wales match or better Croatia’s final two results, they will finish ahead of them.
However, Armenia could still come into the mix – they have the head-to-head edge over Wales after a 4-2 away win in June.
The Caucasus nation currently have seven points – if they win their final two games (against Wales and Croatia), and Croatia fail to beat Latvia, Armenia would finish second in the group. Even if Croatia do beat Latvia, Armenia would still finish above Luka Modric and co if they beat them by at least two goals in Zagreb on Tuesday.
All would not be lost for Wales if they were to finish third, though. Qualification play-off spots are available based on performances in the 2022/23 Nations League.
Wales were relegated from League A but with most of the teams ahead of them on the competition ladder likely to secure automatic qualification for the Euros, a play-off spot will almost certainly be theirs if they finish third in the group, notwithstanding a ludicrous set of results from other groups over the weekend.
Croatia, meanwhile, are assured of at least a play-off spot after reaching the Nations League finals.
Armenia vs Wales, Yerevan (Saturday 18 November, 2pm GMT)
Latvia vs Croatia, Riga (Saturday 18 November, 5pm GMT)
Croatia vs Armenia, Zagreb (Tuesday 21 November, 7.45pm GMT)
Wales vs Turkey, Cardiff (Tuesday 21 November, 7.45pm GMT)
1. Turkey (Q)