Vlad Jr. remains 'leap of faith' for managers
DJ Short explains how Toronto Blue Jays' Vlad Guerrero Jr. has the potential to break out this season, but is still a "leap of faith" for managers.
Video Transcript
DJ SHORT: Is this the year that Vladimir Guerrero Jr finally breaks through? Now, the narrative is certainly there, as he said at the start of spring camp that he lost a whopping 42 pounds over the winter. But what about the actual numbers?
So far, you are taking a leap of faith at least with his average draft position. Guerrero hits the ball hard. There's no doubt about that.
According to Baseball Savant, he ranked in the 93rd percentile last year in both hard hit percentage and average exit velocity. You don't need me to tell you that's very good. Guerrero also makes a lot of contact. So that bodes well as far as him not being a batting average liability.
But Guerrero still hits the ball on the ground far too often. In fact, his ground ball rate last year was higher than it was in 2019. There's obviously a ton of talent here.
Guerrero just turned 22 years old this month. There's plenty of reason to believe that something will eventually click here. But his current average draft position carries a ton of projection. The question is whether you'd rather take a more proven player early in your draft. Are you feeling lucky?
