Virginia at Florida State (-1)
This is the only Top 25 matchup on the College Basketball slate today and it should be a good one. Virginia has won eight of the last 12 overall meetings between these two teams, a favorable trend.
Florida State is coming off a 92-85 OT win versus Wake Forest, avoiding their first losing streak of the season. Florida State has won six of the last seven games, going 5-0 SU at home in that span. Virginia has won four straight and 11 of the previous 12 games overall. On the road, the Cavaliers are 5-1 in true road games, while Florida State is 10-1 SU at home.
In ACC play, the Seminoles rank first in effective field-goal percentage (57.8%), three-point percentage (41.8%) and second in two-point percentage (55.0%). On the other side, the Cavaliers rank first or second defensively in all three of those categories. Virginia leads the conference with 57.5 points per game allowed and a 30.0% three-point percentage highlights the defense. The Cavaliers are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six road games, while the Seminoles are 4-1 ATS over the previous five games as a home favorite.
In this series, the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, pointing towards Virginia, but the Cavaliers are 3-7 ATS over the last 10 following an ATS win the game prior. When playing a team with a winning percentage above .600%, Virginia is 2-6 ATS in the last eight.
For the game total of 127.5, the Over is 4-1 in Seminoles last five home games and 6-1-1 over the previous eight. Virginia's defense has come on strong lately with a 4-1 Under mark in the last five overall. Virginia has held their opponents to 48 and 49 points in the past two games. On the road, the Cavaliers have allowed 49, 49, 50, 57 and 65 points in the last five games (points listed lowest to highest).
When Florida State scores 90 or more points, the Under is 5-2 in the next seven games. This a low number for a Seminoles squad that scored 78 or more in five of the last six games. Virginia has limited Florida State to fewer than 70 points in each of the previous 19 meetings, so there is value there, but the team total of 62.5 seems a little too low.
Florida State beat Virginia 54-50 last season at home and 61-56 on the road. Florida State split with them in 2018-19 and Virginia is 2-3 SU in their last five games at Florida State's Tucker Center. I will back the home team in what should be a close game between two ACC heavyweights.
I favor Florida State's shooting in this matchup, particularly what they could do from deep. The Seminoles are also 2.5 games back of Virginia for the lead in the ACC, with only one meeting with Virginia scheduled and five conference games remaining following the outcome of this matchup.
Bet Locked In: Florida State ML (1.5u)
Top 3 Games to Bet This Week
Florida at Arkansas: Tuesday at 7 PM ET
Arkansas is 12-1 SU at home this season and coming off two big road wins over Kentucky and Missouri. Florida was upset by South Carolina at home after winning four straight. In this series, the favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings and Arkansas will open as -3 point favorites or higher.
Arkansas has beat four of the last five meetings with Florida, but this seems like the best Razorbacks team in recent years. Defensively, Arkansas has struggled, ranking 10th in effective field goal percentage (51.8%), three-point percentage (35.3%) and two-point percentage (51.1%) in SEC play.
Florida ranks top four in conference play offensively in all three of those categories and has won two straight road games, including an 85-80 win at West Virginia. Do not count the Gators out on the road, especially if the line creeps past +5.
Michigan State at Purdue: Tuesday at 7 PM ET
The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings between the two. Purdue is 8-1 SU at home this season and has won two straight and three of the previous four meetings with Michigan State at home. Big Ten home teams are nothing to be reckoned with and I think we will have another case of that with Purdue here.
Purdue is 2-3 SU in the last five games, while Michigan State is 2-5 SU over the previous seven. Michigan State beat Nebraska and Penn State as their two wins, unimpressive victories, while Purdue's only loss at home came against Michigan. Purdue's Trevion Williams has been a force scoring 23 and 24 points in two of his previous three games. if he gets going early, Purdue will not let back against this Michigan State team.
The Boilermakers have allowed opponents to 71 points or less in six straight games and I expect that to be seven against the Spartans. Purdue should open up around -6-point favorites at home, a reasonable number.
Texas at Oklahoma: Wednesday, TBD
This game was scheduled for Tuesday but rescheduled for Wednesday due to weather. The hype will have to build for one more day between these two Top 25 teams. Oklahoma split with Texas last season and lost three straight games prior to those meetings.
Entering this matchup, Texas has won two straight games after dropping three straight and four of the previous five. Oklahoma is playing their best basketball of the season, winning seven of the last eight games and two straight.
Oklahoma's downfall this season has been both their shooting and defense from three. In conference play, the Sooners hit 32.2% from three (9th) and defended it at 35.8% (8th). Texas is primarily an inside team, making 51.7% (2nd) of their two-pointers and Oklahoma protects inside the three-point line at 45.2% (2nd). This could defensively be a slugfest if neither team can capitalize from three. Expect the spread to be within three points and likely open up at -1 in favor of Oklahoma.