TNF preview: Will Carolina cover -8 over Houston?

Minty Bets is your betting guide today as she previews the Carolina Panthers and the Houston Texans set to kick off Week 3 in the NFL on the Yahoo Sports app. The Panthers are coming off a dismantling of the Saints while the Texans will be without starter Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. Minty picks against the spread, has a total wager as well as a few player props. New BetMGM customers who bet $1 on ANY game will receive $100 in free bets added to their account. You don’t need to win your bet to receive the promotion. Must be 21+ in AZ, CO, IN, IA, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY only. . Terms apply. Go to BetMGM.com/YAHOOSPECIAL to get started or use promo code SPORTSBOOK when making your first deposit.

Video Transcript

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MINTY BETS: Welcome to Yahoo Sportsbook Daily. It's September 23rd and I'm your betting guide Minty Bets. We went four and one on Thursday Night Football last week, so let's see if we can make some more money together as we preview Houston and Carolina. The Thursday night game will be on the Yahoo Sports app at 8:20 PM Eastern Standard Time. The Panthers are eight point road favorites and the total is set at 43.

Thursday Night Football usually has some pretty boring matchups in recent history, but these are two surprising teams and I actually do not hate this game. Both of these teams have covered in both weeks so far. So I think everyone just completely wrote off the Texans because they looked like a train wreck last season with a questionable decisions Bill O'Brien made, and everyone made fun of this roster because it's technically the oldest roster in the league.

Tyrod Taylor is ruled out for this Thursday night game and that's unfortunate because if he was playing I would confidently take the points with Houston. Rookie quarterback Davis Mills is in for Tyrod and Mills said he was unfazed when he had to fill in for Tyrod versus the Browns. Let's talk about who Davis Mills is for a bit before you completely write him off. He went to Stanford and played only 14 games in three seasons because he kept dealing with multiple knee and leg injuries.

Before that, Mills was a top ranked quarterback in high school and was actually ranked higher than Tua tagovailoa and Mac Jones. On Sunday Mills completed eight of 18 passes for a touchdown and a pick. Not super impressive. But this offense has a trio of very capable running backs like Mark Ingram, David Johnson, and Philip Lindsay. I think they'll have to rely on the ground game if they want to succeed here. I mean, they don't know it but they only have to keep this game within eight points and people will love them for it.

This one is tough because Carolina is a better team than we expected. Eight points is an awful lot of points to be favored by, especially on the road. Sam Darnold is flourishing with the Panthers so far, which I love that for him. Christian McCaffrey back on this offense makes a huge difference along with D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson, they're making plays happen and doing a lot of damage. It is risky but I think I will take the home dog. Plus eight is a great number. I'd even take it at plus 7 and 1/2 and plus seven, but I wouldn't bet the Texans any lower than that.

Once we start to see some six and a half's in the mix I'm out. Onto the total. Houston has one of the worst defensive lines in the NFL and they give up a ton of yards as well as a ton of points. I don't doubt Carolina will score quite a bit. But I wouldn't rule out Houston to put some points on the board as well. Although Carolina's defense leads the NFL in total yards allowed, rushing yards allowed, passing yards allowed, sacks and points allowed, and they force offenses to 25% on third down, which is the best in the NFL, this total set pretty low and I feel comfortable enough to bet the over. I like the over more than I like my Texans plus eight picks, so please keep that in mind.

I know this match-up is four and one to the under but these two teams only meet up every few years, and both of these teams have quite different rosters and coaching since then. The over has hit in three straight games taking place in Houston dating back to last year, so I will take my chances with the over because it is no fun taking an under.

Now let's talk some props. First one I'm going with will be for D.J. Moore. His total number of receptions is set at 5 and 1/2. He's made six in week one and eight in week two. The over is plus 105 while the under is minus 140. This line is telling me that the books are saying he's going to have a little regression in week three, which I understand, but plus money for six receptions is great value. I'll take the over.

Next we'll talk about Mark Ingram. His total rushing yards is set at 34 and 1/2. I did mention earlier that in order for Houston to have some success against this Carolina defense they're going to have to run the ball a lot. Enter Mark Ingram, he rushed over this total both weeks of the season so far, this total is set so low so let's go over.

Lastly, I cannot give out a QB prop. Looking at Davis Mills props seems like he's expected to under-perform so I'll look to Sam Darnold instead. 33 and 1/2 is the total set for his pass attempts. Now, I know this might not make that much sense because I like the game total to go over and I like DJ Moore to hit at least six receptions, but I'm going to go with the under four Sam Darnold passing attempts at minus 105. I know he went over this total in both games so far this season, but last year he only averaged about 30.3 pass attempts. And I do think that in order for Carolina to control the tempo they'll want to run the ball a lot in this game. Unders are no fun like I said, but I like the under a lot.

Now to recap, I like the Texans plus eight, the game total over 43, D.J. Mooer over 5 and 1/2 receptions plus 105, Mark Ingram over 34 and 1/2 rushing yards minus 115, and Sam Darnold pass attempts under 33 and 1/2 at minus 105.

Thanks for joining me today on Yahoo Sports Book Daily podcast. You can follow me on Twitter @MintyBets and make sure to follow all of our content over at Yahoo Sports Book. New BetMGM customers who bet $1 on any game will receive $100 in free bets added to their account. You don't need to win your bet to receive the promotion but you must be 21 and over in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming only. Terms apply, go to betmgm.com/yahoospecial to get started or use promo code SPORTSBOOK when making your first deposit. Pam and I are hosting tomorrow to take you through our favorite NFL Sunday wagers on Yahoo Sportsbook Daily. Until then good bye and good luck.

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