Mad Bets: Line Movement to watch in Week 13
Matt Gothard & Jared Quay talk about the games with the most significant line movement in Week 13 of the 2020 NFL season.
Video Transcript
MATT GOTHARD: Welcome back to "Mad Bets" everybody. Week 13 is here and so is a major line movement I'm here with Jared Quay to talk through where the money's at and how it's impacting some of these point spreads. Let's start off with the first game on our list, the Green Bay Packers versus the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles got a miraculous cover last week. This week, they opened up as 6 and 1/2 point dogs. Now, they're 8 and 1/2 point dogs.
98% of the money is on the Green Bay Packers here, bumping that from 6 and 1/2 through a key number of 7 up to 8 and a 1/2. Jared, how do you like this line? Which way would you go? What are you thinking?
JARED QUAY: Ugly. It was-- at first, I liked it for them to win by a touchdown. But now they have to win by a touchdown and some. And I don't know if you know this, but Doug Pederson must be going on a spread too. Because why would you go for 2 last week? Why?
I wouldn't touch this one after being moved as much. I mean, obviously the Eagles aren't a very great team this year. And the Packers are always pretty good, and Aaron Rodgers seems to be playing prime, great good ball. And so I see the line moving, but I'd probably not touch it. Once it moved past 7, I probably wouldn't bet it.
MATT GOTHARD: Yeah, they say good teams win. Great teams cover. And the Eagles seem to be one of those teams that are just playing to cover at this point, since winning is a little bit more difficult. All right, moving on to the second game.
We talked about this a little bit earlier, but the Los Angeles Rams at Arizona. Earlier this week, this game opened up as Arizona minus 1. And now, it's moved all the way to the Rams minus 3. And that's a pretty key number, you know, because the field goal there.
But when you look at the money, 60% of the tickets are on the Rams, but 56% of the money is on the Cardinals. So this line movement's a little bit fishy. Quay, what do you think about this? Run from it. Vegas knows something.
JARED QUAY: No, I think obviously it's a little bit reaction. The Cardinals went out and lost to the Patriots. And the home field advantage for the Rams and the Cardinals isn't very strong because they both play domes right now, and they're very close to each other. So it doesn't really affect it as much.
And the Rams have been playing good ball all around. But personally, I still think the Cardinals have a little tricks up their sleeve. But they just got to figure out the clock management and coaching. And stop missing field goals!
MATT GOTHARD: Well, if you like the Rams earlier this week, it seems like value might be gone. Cardinals fans, you're definitely picking up three points. So more value than there's ever been in that match-up.
All right, last up-- third game of the week. The New Orleans Saints minus 3 on the road against the Falcons-- a team that they dominated a couple of weeks ago. It's very weird that this line is only minus 3. It opened up at minus 3 and 1/2. 70% of the money and tickets are on the Saints, and it went down a 1/2 point to 3. Quay, you think the Falcons are the play here?
JARED QUAY: If you watched that Broncos game, the Saints weren't a great team. They just played a team that can pick and complete a pass and couldn't get a first down. I don't know what Sean Payton's plan is with Taysom Hill. Maybe he has something up his sleeve.
But if he's playing Taysom Hill the way they played against the Broncos, I think the Falcons might be the play there. And I think that's why the line's moving because Vegas knows what I know. We're both smart people-- me and the house, that is.
MATT GOTHARD: Yeah, you feel like if the Falcons get a lead in that, it'll be tough for the Saints to come back with Taysom Hill at quarterback. Jared Quay, thank you so much. As always, great stuff. We'll see you next week.
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