Usage Model Notes: Is Keenan A Top 5 WR?

Hayden Winks
·16 min read



“The Fantasy Usage Model” simply is how many PPR fantasy points an average NFL player in an average NFL offense would’ve scored with the same exact opportunity. Read Targets Aren’t Created Equal and Carries Aren’t Created Equal if you want to see the type of variables that go into this model, but think air yards, relation to the sideline, yards from the end zone, and scheme indicator metrics. It’s a “Buy Low Model” (shoutout to the great Josh Hermsmeyer). To make things better, I manually clean the data each week with things I can adjust for that a computer wouldn’t know about (i.e. removing early-injury games) because the data is only as good as the context that comes with it. If you have questions, reach out to me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks).

Top 5 Rebound Candidates of Week 9

1. Jerry Jeudy (@ ATL)

2. Leonard Fournette (vs. NO)

3. Robby Anderson (@ KC)

4. D'Andre Swift (@ MIN)

5. Josh Jacobs (@ LAC)

Fantasy Usage Model - WRs

Average expected PPR points and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player

Fantasy Usage

PPR Per Game

Context

Davante Adams

WR1 (23.0)

WR1 (29.0)

32.1, 14.3, 29.0, & 25.8 xFPs in healthy games.

DK Metcalf

WR2 (20.2)

WR3 (23.9)

Leading WRs in air yards P/G (122) in last 4.

Keenan Allen

WR3 (18.8)

WR5 (22.1)

22.2 xFPs P/G in 5 healthy Herbert games.

Tyler Lockett

WR4 (18.7)

WR4 (22.9)

Most volatile fantasy usage week to week. WR1.

Jamison Crowder

WR5 (18.3)

WR14 (18.7)

Removed Weeks 7-8 & groins can linger. WR2.

Travis Fulgham

WR6 (18.2)

WR10 (20.7)

xFPs P/G: Weeks 5-8 (20.3), Week 9 (11.8).

Julio Jones

WR7 (18.0)

WR2 (24.0)

Top-5 WR with or without Ridley (foot).

Terry McLaurin

WR8 (17.6)

WR33 (14.0)

10.0 targets, 34% share in last 4 weeks. WR2.

Brandin Cooks

WR9 (17.5)

WR7 (21.6)

Target share since Wk 5: BC (27%), WF (23%).

Tyler Boyd

WR10 (17.5)

WR18 (17.0)

46% of targets are over the middle. That's elite.

Cooper Kupp

WR11 (17.2)

WR31 (15.0)

WR1/2 usage on career-low 7.3 YPT. WR2.

Corey Davis

WR12 (17.2)

WR8 (21.2)

WR2 usage recently but was a WR5/6 for a year.

Stefon Diggs

WR13 (17.1)

WR28 (15.8)

3rd in targets per game (11.0) in last 4 weeks.

Sterling Shepard

WR14 (16.5)

WR22 (16.7)

Was NYG's No. 1 in 2019. Is the No. 1 in 2020.

Diontae Johnson

WR15 (16.1)

WR30 (15.3)

Only includes Wk 7-8. Boom-bust WR3. Health?

Will Fuller

WR16 (15.4)

WR17 (17.5)

3rd in air yards P/G (116) in last 4. Upside WR2.

A.J. Green

WR17 (15.1)

WR38 (12.2)

WR2 usage on WR5 legs. Volatile top-36 WR.

Allen Robinson

WR18 (15.1)

WR16 (17.7)

102 air yards P/G as low-end WR1 despite QB.

D.J. Chark

WR19 (15.0)

WR87 (6.6)

8th in air yards P/G (111) in last 4. Backup QB.

Calvin Ridley

WR20 (14.7)

WR12 (19.5)

Removed Week 8 (foot). Volatile WR1/2 with JJ.

Adam Thielen

WR21 (14.4)

WR24 (16.4)

Only had 8 air yards Week 8. Volatile WR2.

A.J. Brown

WR22 (14.0)

WR9 (20.9)

Efficiency outlier on low-end WR2 usage.

DeAndre Hopkins

WR23 (13.8)

WR11 (20.2)

Seeing hardest targets possible but still a WR1.

Chris Godwin

WR24 (13.8)

WR19 (16.8)

WR2/3 usage even without AB. Upside WR3?

CeeDee Lamb

WR25 (13.6)

WR50 (10.6)

xFPs per game: With Dak (14.7), without (9.0).

Robby Anderson

WR26 (13.3)

WR34 (13.5)

29% target share in last 4 weeks. WR2/3.

Robert Woods

WR27 (13.2)

WR6 (22.0)

Only a 18% target share but gets carries. WR3.

Jarvis Landry

WR28 (13.2)

WR56 (9.9)

Banged up but season-high 44% share Week 8.

Marquez Callaway

WR29 (13.1)

WR45 (11.5)

Will be unusable when Thomas/Sanders return.

JuJu Smith-Schuster

WR30 (12.8)

WR53 (10.2)

Low-floor flex with Diontae. A sad 5.6 aDOT.

Chase Claypool

WR31 (12.8)

WR13 (19.4)

Treated as No. 1 WR by defenses. Volatile WR3.

Brandon Aiyuk

WR32 (12.8)

WR32 (14.3)

Season-high 22.4 xFPs Week 8 without Deebo.

Tee Higgins

WR33 (12.6)

WR29 (15.5)

7.5 targets, 94 air yards in last 4 games. WR3.

Marquise Brown

WR34 (12.4)

WR37 (12.3)

6 air yards in Week 8 was very disappointing.

Jakobi Meyers

WR35 (12.1)

WR48 (11.0)

9.7 & 14.4 expected fantasy points in last 2.

Kenny Golladay

WR36 (12.0)

WR27 (16.0)

Out weeks.

Marvin Jones

WR37 (12.0)

WR42 (11.6)

xFPs P/G: With Kenny (7.2), without (13.4).

Darius Slayton

WR38 (11.8)

WR41 (11.9)

5.7 & 14.0 xFPs in 2 games with Shepard back.

Josh Reynolds

WR39 (11.6)

WR61 (9.0)

17% target share in last 4 games. WR5 dart.

D.J. Moore

WR40 (11.6)

WR23 (16.6)

Career-high 10.5 YPT hiding WR3 usage. Sell?

Randall Cobb

WR41 (11.6)

WR36 (13.0)

Under 10.0 xFPs in 6-of-7 games. PPR WR5.

Christian Kirk

WR42 (11.5)

WR15 (18.7)

NFL-high 97% of targets near the sideline.

Deebo Samuel

WR43 (11.4)

WR44 (11.5)

Out weeks.

Tyreek Hill

WR44 (11.2)

WR21 (16.8)

Efficiency outlier (9.9 YPT) as low-end WR1.

Amari Cooper

WR45 (11.0)

WR51 (10.5)

xFPs per game: With Dak (17.9), without (8.8).

Curtis Samuel

WR46 (10.9)

WR20 (16.8)

Still only a 19% target share in last 4. WR4/5.

Tim Patrick

WR47 (10.8)

WR49 (10.8)

16.0 aDOT as Denver's deep threat if healthy.

Justin Jefferson

WR48 (10.7)

WR26 (16.2)

6.7 targets, 67 air yards in last 4. Volatile WR2/3.

Mike Williams

WR49 (10.7)

WR25 (16.3)

LAC top-5 in neutral pass rate in two straight.

Cole Beasley

WR50 (10.5)

WR35 (13.1)

7.4 aDOT, 47 air yards per game. PPR WR4/5.

Jerry Jeudy

WR51 (10.5)

WR85 (6.8)

Led Week 8 in air yards with Patrick out. WR4/5.

Jalen Reagor

WR52 (10.3)

WR39 (12.2)

22% target share in Week 8. Upside WR4.

Keelan Cole

WR53 (10.3)

WR47 (11.1)

Michael Gallup

WR54 (10.2)

WR81 (7.2)

2nd in targets near the sideline (94%). WR5/6.

Jeff Smith

WR55 (10.1)

WR114 (3.3)

Darnell Mooney

WR56 (9.8)

WR43 (11.5)

105 air yards per game in last 4. No-floor WR5.

Larry Fitzgerald

WR57 (9.8)

WR63 (9.0)

I'd bench him for Andy, but I'm not an NFL coach.

Laviska Shenault

WR58 (9.7)

WR65 (8.8)

16% target share and now with a backup QB.

Anthony Miller

WR59 (9.3)

WR52 (10.3)

Season-high 18.0 xFPs in Week 8. Still a WR5/6.

Mike Evans

WR60 (9.2)

WR57 (9.8)

10.7 xFPs per game on season. Now adding AB.

Zach Pascal

WR61 (9.2)

WR66 (8.8)

Denzel Mims

WR62 (9.1)

WR80 (7.2)

WR5/6 usage. Crowder returning soon?

Breshad Perriman

WR63 (8.9)

WR79 (7.5)

T.Y. Hilton

WR64 (8.9)

WR91 (6.0)

Career-low 5.6 YPT. Now injured.

Greg Ward

WR65 (8.6)

WR62 (9.0)

Braxton Berrios

WR66 (8.5)

WR92 (5.8)

Marcus Johnson

WR67 (8.4)

WR54 (10.0)

Nelson Agholor

WR68 (8.4)

WR40 (12.1)

Under 8.5 xFPs in 6-of-7 games. WR6 only.

Kendrick Bourne

WR69 (7.7)

WR69 (8.4)

Season-high 17.7 xFPs Week 8 with Deebo out.

DeVante Parker

WR70 (7.6)

WR64 (8.9)

17% target share in last 4. 1 air yard in Week 8.

Deonte Harris

WR71 (7.6)

WR59 (9.7)

Julian Edelman

WR72 (7.6)

WR120 (2.6)

Injured reserve.

Preston Williams

WR73 (7.5)

WR46 (11.3)

Team-high 75 air yards per game in last 4. WR6.

Tre'Quan Smith

WR74 (7.3)

WR82 (7.2)

Russell Gage

WR75 (7.3)

WR77 (7.5)

Scotty Miller

WR76 (7.2)

WR72 (7.9)

Willie Snead

WR77 (6.8)

WR86 (6.6)

Gabriel Davis

WR78 (6.8)

WR107 (3.7)

John Hightower

WR79 (6.7)

WR98 (4.2)

Adam Humphries

WR80 (6.7)

WR84 (7.1)

Demarcus Robinson

WR81 (6.5)

WR70 (8.0)

KJ Hamler

WR82 (6.4)

WR73 (7.9)

Collin Johnson

WR83 (6.3)

WR83 (7.2)

David Moore

WR84 (6.2)

WR78 (7.5)

Marvin Hall

WR85 (6.1)

WR93 (5.7)

Jalen Guyton

WR86 (6.1)

WR74 (7.7)

Hunter Renfrow

WR87 (6.0)

WR67 (8.7)

Trent Taylor

WR88 (5.9)

WR101 (4.0)

Mecole Hardman

WR89 (5.8)

WR60 (9.7)

Season-high 13.6 xFPs Week 8. 31-of-47 routes.

DaeSean Hamilton

WR90 (5.8)

WR75 (7.6)

Henry Ruggs

WR91 (5.8)

WR58 (9.7)

Under 9.0 xFPs in all 4 "healthy" games. WR5.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

WR92 (5.6)

WR111 (3.5)

Bad at the game. Lazard returning.

Tyler Johnson

WR93 (5.6)

WR71 (7.9)

Rashard Higgins

WR94 (5.6)

WR55 (10.0)

2.9 xFPs & 12% target share in Week 8. WR6.

Cedrick Wilson

WR95 (5.3)

WR124 (2.0)

Danny Amendola

WR96 (5.3)

WR76 (7.6)

Isaiah Wright

WR97 (5.2)

WR102 (4.0)

James Washington

WR98 (5.2)

WR94 (5.6)

Damiere Byrd

WR99 (5.1)

WR95 (5.4)

Golden Tate

WR100 (5.0)

WR68 (8.6)

Droppable in 12-team leagues.

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Fantasy Usage Model - TEs

Average expected PPR points and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player

Fantasy Usage

PPR Per Game

Context

Travis Kelce

TE1 (15.5)

TE1 (19.8)

Has 2x the PPR points of the TE12 this season.

T.J. Hockenson

TE2 (14.2)

TE6 (13.4)

15.9, 11.3, & 15.2 xFPs in 3 games post-bye.

Darren Waller

TE3 (13.3)

TE4 (13.5)

25% target share (2nd) in last 4 weeks. The TE2.

Rob Gronkowski

TE4 (13.2)

TE2 (14.6)

17% target share in last 4 likely to drop. TE1/2.

Austin Hooper

TE5 (12.5)

TE8 (10.5)

13.0, 16.2, & 8.7 xFPs before surgery. TE1.

Noah Fant

TE6 (12.4)

TE16 (9.3)

At least 9.7 xFPs in all six healthy games. TE1.

Mark Andrews

TE7 (11.3)

TE14 (9.3)

22% target share is a disappointment. Still TE1.

Evan Engram

TE8 (11.3)

TE13 (9.4)

3rd in routes. Usage trending up. Low-end TE1.

Jimmy Graham

TE9 (11.0)

TE27 (6.8)

TE1/2 usage. TD-dependent in horrible offense.

Trey Burton

TE10 (11.0)

TE5 (13.4)

Only 15-of-37 routes Week 8 but schemed open.

Hunter Henry

TE11 (10.1)

TE20 (8.3)

LAC top-5 in neutral pass rate in two straight.

Eric Ebron

TE12 (9.8)

TE12 (9.5)

TD-dependent on 17% target share. TE2.

Albert Okwuegbunam

TE13 (9.2)

TE17 (9.1)

Only 15-of-48 routes Week 8 with Fant healthy.

Jared Cook

TE14 (9.2)

TE3 (13.8)

Season-high 13.0 xFPs Week 8 without MT/ES.

Hayden Hurst

TE15 (9.2)

TE9 (10.4)

2nd in TE routes. 6.0 targets per game in last 4.

Ross Dwelley

TE16 (8.5)

TE19 (8.6)

Season-high 8.5 xFPs Week 8. Jordan Reed?

Anthony Firkser

TE17 (8.4)

TE11 (9.6)

Off the radar when Jonnu is healthy.

Jonnu Smith

TE18 (8.4)

TE15 (9.3)

8.3 & 2.9 xFPs in last 2 with AJB & CD balling.

Gerald Everett

TE19 (7.8)

TE18 (8.8)

Week 8 routes: Everett (29), Higbee (24). TE2/3.

Dalton Schultz

TE20 (7.5)

TE28 (6.2)

TE2 usage as backup TE with backup QB.

Logan Thomas

TE21 (7.0)

TE10 (10.2)

Produced but 7.9 & 7.1 xFPs in last 2 games.

Irv Smith

TE22 (6.7)

TE22 (7.5)

15-of-18 Week 8 routes with low-end TE2 usage.

Tyler Eifert

TE23 (6.6)

TE54 (2.3)

Robert Tonyan

TE24 (6.2)

TE21 (7.9)

26-of-50 Week 8 routes. TDs only with Adams.

Mike Gesicki

TE25 (6.1)

TE32 (5.3)

Slot WR Ford trade improves Gesicki's outlook.

Greg Olsen

TE26 (5.5)

TE56 (2.3)

Darren Fells

TE27 (5.4)

TE7 (11.4)

Jace Sternberger

TE28 (5.2)

TE23 (7.5)

Harrison Bryant

TE29 (4.9)

TE24 (7.3)

23-of-30 Week 8 routes. Hooper returning. Drop.

Durham Smythe

TE30 (4.9)

TE31 (5.5)

Richard Rodgers

TE31 (4.9)

TE29 (5.9)

Tyler Higbee

TE32 (4.8)

TE33 (5.1)

30th in TE routes in 2020.

Jack Doyle

TE33 (4.7)

TE25 (7.2)

Will Dissly

TE34 (4.3)

TE30 (5.8)

Cameron Brate

TE35 (4.2)

TE34 (4.5)

Fantasy Usage Model - RBs

Average expected PPR points and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player

Fantasy Usage

PPR Per Game

Context

Alvin Kamara

RB1 (22.9)

RB3 (22.7)

18.9+ xFPs in all 7 games. 126-catch pace.

Dalvin Cook

RB2 (22.4)

RB1 (34.3)

The RB2 overall moving forward.

Myles Gaskin

RB3 (22.0)

RB7 (17.3)

The Fantasy Usage Model hero is going to IR.

Joe Mixon

RB4 (21.8)

RB15 (15.2)

24.0 xFPs P/G in last 3 healthy games.

David Montgomery

RB5 (21.2)

RB17 (14.4)

Knock his speed all you want. RB1 usage. RB2.

Josh Jacobs

RB6 (19.9)

RB20 (13.8)

Touch shares: Leading (55%), trailing (15%).

James Robinson

RB7 (19.2)

RB5 (19.0)

xFPs P/G: With Thompson (14.9), without (23.5).

David Johnson

RB8 (18.8)

RB16 (14.9)

All 18 touches in Week 7 came in 1st/2nd down.

Derrick Henry

RB9 (18.6)

RB2 (23.0)

Pacing for 368 carries. Is that sustainable?

Leonard Fournette

RB10 (18.5)

RB26 (12.9)

21.4 & 15.7 xFPs in last 2. RoJo keeps fumbling.

James Conner

RB11 (17.9)

RB11 (15.4)

RB1/2 usage in near bellcow role.

Todd Gurley

RB12 (17.8)

RB8 (16.9)

Iffy speed but 13.4+ xFPs in all 8 games. RB1/2.

DeeJay Dallas

RB13 (17.7)

RB21 (13.8)

xFPs: Week 7 (4.6), Week 8 (30.8).

Ezekiel Elliott

RB14 (16.6)

RB24 (13.5)

xFPs P/G: Weeks 1-6 (24.2), Weeks 7-8 (12.1).

Darrell Henderson

RB15 (16.5)

RB29 (12.5)

Removed Week 8. Early-down RB2/3.

Mike Davis

RB16 (16.4)

RB14 (15.2)

Quality RB1/2 fill in for CMC. Insurance only now.

Kareem Hunt

RB17 (16.3)

RB23 (13.6)

Chubb could be back Week 10, meaning RB2/3.

Kenyan Drake

RB18 (16.0)

RB10 (15.6)

Pure runner on bad ankle if he's a surprise active.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

RB19 (15.8)

RB27 (12.8)

Season-low 9.4 xFPs Week 8. Still the 1A.

Jamaal Williams

RB20 (15.8)

RB22 (13.7)

RB1 run likely over. Elite insurance. Bench hold.

Devonta Freeman

RB21 (15.7)

RB32 (11.7)

Was seeing RB2 usage before injury. Gallman?

D'Andre Swift

RB22 (15.6)

RB9 (15.8)

Week 8 snaps: Swift (38/61), AP (12), KJ (11).

Melvin Gordon

RB23 (14.6)

RB25 (13.4)

Lindsay only a pure rusher. Gordon is a RB2/3.

Ronald Jones

RB24 (14.5)

RB12 (15.2)

RB3 usage with Fournette. Fumbled Week 8.

Justin Jackson

RB25 (13.9)

RB19 (14.0)

Inconsistent RB3 with Kelley and Pope involved.

Antonio Gibson

RB26 (13.8)

RB28 (12.8)

Post-Bye Rookie Bump? Was a pure runner only.

Giovani Bernard

RB27 (13.1)

RB18 (14.2)

Low-end RB1 insurance when Mixon misses.

Jonathan Taylor

RB28 (13.0)

RB31 (12.0)

Having Trent Richardson-like season. RB2/3.

Miles Sanders

RB29 (12.8)

RB4 (21.1)

Should return to top-8 RB levels following bye.

Raheem Mostert

RB30 (11.9)

RB30 (12.3)

Injured reserve. Coleman, Wilson both hurt.

Boston Scott

RB31 (11.1)

RB42 (7.8)

Low-end RB1 insurance when Sanders misses.

Chase Edmonds

RB32 (10.4)

RB13 (15.2)

RB1 if Drake misses. Outplaying him in general.

Joshua Kelley

RB33 (10.3)

RB51 (6.2)

Week 8 snaps: JJ (41), Pope (25), Kelley (21).

Gus Edwards

RB34 (10.3)

RB39 (8.6)

All 17 Week 8 touches on 1st/2nd down. RB3.

Nyheim Hines

RB35 (10.1)

RB33 (11.3)

2 TDs in Week 8 but only 11.9 xFPs. PPR RB3.

J.D. McKissic

RB36 (10.1)

RB35 (10.8)

Could lose passing role to Gibson post-bye.

Alexander Mattison

RB37 (9.9)

RB46 (7.1)

Jeff Wilson

RB38 (9.4)

RB6 (17.4)

J.K. Dobbins

RB39 (9.0)

RB38 (8.8)

1st in YAC, broken tackles per carry, YPC. RB3.

Devin Singletary

RB40 (8.9)

RB49 (6.7)

Only seeing 2.3 "high value touches" per game.

Latavius Murray

RB41 (8.8)

RB48 (6.8)

Lamical Perine

RB42 (8.7)

RB41 (8.1)

Phillip Lindsay

RB43 (8.4)

RB34 (11.2)

Malcolm Brown

RB44 (8.3)

RB53 (6.0)

JaMycal Hasty

RB45 (8.1)

RB44 (7.4)

James White

RB46 (8.1)

RB45 (7.4)

Zack Moss

RB47 (8.1)

RB36 (10.4)

Week 8 xFPs: Moss (14.5), Singletary (8.3).

Troymaine Pope

RB48 (8.0)

RB43 (7.6)

Tony Pollard

RB49 (7.9)

RB58 (5.7)

Wayne Gallman

RB50 (7.8)

RB40 (8.5)

14.3 & 9.9 xFPs in two games without Freeman.

Adrian Peterson

RB51 (7.5)

RB50 (6.3)

Brian Hill

RB52 (7.2)

RB47 (6.8)

Samaje Perine

RB53 (7.2)

RB54 (6.0)

Chris Thompson

RB54 (6.9)

RB56 (5.9)

Damien Harris

RB55 (6.7)

RB37 (9.5)

Only NE RB with inside-10 touch Week 8. RB3.

Duke Johnson

RB56 (6.7)

RB62 (4.7)

Le'Veon Bell

RB57 (6.1)

RB60 (5.4)

Week 8 snaps: Edwards-Helaire (33), Bell (17).

Jerick McKinnon

RB58 (6.0)

RB61 (5.3)

We're tired. He's tired. Only 10.0 xFPs Week 8.

Jeremy McNichols

RB59 (6.0)

RB65 (4.4)

Frank Gore

RB60 (6.0)

RB57 (5.8)

Jordan Wilkins

RB61 (5.5)

RB52 (6.1)

Season-high 14.1 xFPs Week 8. Better than JT?

The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 9

Part 1: High-Value RB Touches (Sunday Night)

Part 2: Targets Aren’t Created Equal (Monday Night)

Part 3: Air Yards Report (Monday Night)

Part 4: Fantasy Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)

My Twitter: @HaydenWinks