Usage Model Notes: What to do with DAL WRs

Hayden Winks
·13 min read



“The Fantasy Usage Model” simply is how many PPR fantasy points an average NFL player in an average NFL offense would’ve scored with the same exact opportunity. Read Targets Aren’t Created Equal and Carries Aren’t Created Equal if you want to see the type of variables that go into this model, but think air yards, relation to the sideline, yards from the end zone, and scheme indicator metrics. It’s a “Buy Low Model” (shoutout to the great Josh Hermsmeyer). To make things better, I manually clean the data each week with things I can adjust for that a computer wouldn’t know about (i.e. removing early-injury games) because the data is only as good as the context that comes with it. If you have questions, reach out to me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks).

Note: There are fewer context notes this week because the Irvine, CA wildfires have impacted my usual workflow. Turns out, it's hard to write when your place smells like a bonfire and you can see flames in the distance. I'll get the context notes back to normal next week. Thanks everyone!

Top 5 Rebound Candidates of Week 8

1. Mike Davis (vs. ATL) assuming no CMC

2. Jarvis Landry (vs. LV) especially without Odell

3. Hunter Henry (@ DEN)

4. CeeDee Lamb (@ PHI)

5. Jamison Crowder (@ KC) assuming he's healthy

Fantasy Usage Model - WRs

Average fantasy usage and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player

Fantasy Usage

PPR Per Game

Context

Davante Adams

WR1 (21.6)

WR1 (28.4)

32.1, 14.3, & 29.0 xFPs in 3 healthy games.

Emmanuel Sanders

WR2 (20.3)

WR7 (19.8)

Recently the clear No. 1 without Thomas.

Adam Thielen

WR3 (18.6)

WR4 (23.2)

Terry McLaurin

WR4 (18.5)

WR24 (16.0)

Keenan Allen

WR5 (18.3)

WR11 (18.4)

LAC set season high in neutral pass rate.

Tyler Lockett

WR6 (17.6)

WR5 (22.4)

Set 2020 records in usage, air yards Week 7.

Tyler Boyd

WR7 (17.4)

WR22 (16.2)

WR2 overall in usage Week 7. PPR WR2/3.

Jamison Crowder

WR8 (17.4)

WR12 (18.3)

A PPR WR2 when healthy. Darnold back.

Julio Jones

WR9 (16.7)

WR2 (25.7)

High-upside WR1 when healthy.

Stefon Diggs

WR10 (16.7)

WR20 (16.4)

Schedule toughens up now but a WR1/2.

Travis Fulgham

WR11 (16.6)

WR8 (19.2)

PHI treating as X WR. Reagor close back.

Allen Robinson

WR12 (16.6)

WR25 (15.9)

Not always pretty but an every-week WR1/2.

Amari Cooper

WR13 (16.2)

WR13 (18.0)

Downgrading to upside WR2 post-Dak.

A.J. Green

WR14 (15.8)

WR46 (11.4)

Boom-bust WR3 depending on if he's trying.

D.J. Chark

WR15 (15.7)

WR38 (12.3)

WR2 usage when healthy. Boom-bust asset.

CeeDee Lamb

WR16 (15.1)

WR31 (14.8)

Downgrading to WR2/3 but such a stud.

DK Metcalf

WR17 (15.1)

WR27 (15.4)

Volatile WR2 usage but elite player + MVP QB.

Odell Beckham

WR18 (14.8)

WR15 (17.9)

Out for season. Is Jarvis truly healthy?

Will Fuller

WR19 (14.8)

WR10 (18.9)

Week 7 victim of CB Alexander. WR2.

Robby Anderson

WR20 (14.8)

WR26 (15.6)

Marquise Brown

WR21 (14.5)

WR34 (14.0)

Most volatile WR but should average as a WR3.

Brandin Cooks

WR22 (14.2)

WR21 (16.2)

More play action post-BOB equals WR3 status.

A.J. Brown

WR23 (14.2)

WR3 (23.7)

Efficiency outlier on WR2/3 usage. Upside WR2.

DeAndre Hopkins

WR24 (13.8)

WR14 (18.0)

Has been slightly slowed by ankle. Top-5 WR.

Chris Godwin

WR25 (13.8)

WR18 (16.8)

My bet to lead TB WRs but only a WR2.

Calvin Ridley

WR26 (13.4)

WR32 (14.6)

Top-5 WR run is over with Julio back. WR1/2.

Kenny Golladay

WR27 (13.1)

WR23 (16.0)

Cooper Kupp

WR28 (12.5)

WR45 (11.4)

JuJu Smith-Schuster

WR29 (12.2)

WR62 (9.0)

WR4 when PIT goes run-heavy. WR2 if not.

Tee Higgins

WR30 (12.1)

WR28 (15.2)

Chase Claypool

WR31 (12.0)

WR6 (20.8)

Usage down with Diontae. Boom-bust WR3.

DeVante Parker

WR32 (11.9)

WR36 (13.5)

Robert Woods

WR33 (11.9)

WR40 (12.1)

Has been hurt by low-aDOT, run-first offense.

Cole Beasley

WR34 (11.8)

WR29 (15.1)

Darius Slayton

WR35 (11.7)

WR48 (11.2)

Tyreek Hill

WR36 (11.7)

WR33 (14.4)

YPT outlier but coverages testing WR1 status.

D.J. Moore

WR37 (11.6)

WR16 (17.0)

Zach Pascal

WR38 (11.5)

WR60 (9.2)

Deebo Samuel

WR39 (11.4)

WR44 (11.5)

WR4 usage before pulling hammy.

Justin Jefferson

WR40 (11.4)

WR9 (19.1)

Efficiency outlier. Might trade WR1 days with AT.

Tim Patrick

WR41 (11.3)

WR30 (14.9)

Christian Kirk

WR42 (11.2)

WR19 (16.8)

A winner of Drake's injury if they pass more.

Jarvis Landry

WR43 (11.1)

WR55 (10.0)

WR2/3 upside post Odell... if healthy.

T.Y. Hilton

WR44 (10.9)

WR77 (7.0)

Randall Cobb

WR45 (10.9)

WR49 (11.1)

Jeff Smith

WR46 (10.3)

WR83 (5.6)

Darnell Mooney

WR47 (10.3)

WR78 (6.8)

Foles is the king of unrealized air yards.

Laviska Shenault

WR48 (10.1)

WR54 (10.1)

Brandon Aiyuk

WR49 (9.9)

WR43 (11.9)

Re-gains WR4/flex status if Deebo misses.

Curtis Samuel

WR50 (9.9)

WR39 (12.2)

Keelan Cole

WR51 (9.8)

WR53 (10.5)

Josh Reynolds

WR52 (9.5)

WR56 (10.0)

Mike Evans

WR53 (9.4)

WR42 (12.0)

Slowed by ankle. Volatile WR3 with Gronk/AB.

Nelson Agholor

WR54 (9.4)

WR17 (16.9)

Marquez Callaway

WR55 (9.2)

WR65 (8.5)

Greg Ward

WR56 (9.1)

WR57 (9.9)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

WR57 (9.1)

WR87 (5.2)

Breshad Perriman

WR58 (8.9)

WR69 (7.5)

Left with concussion.

Mike Williams

WR59 (8.9)

WR35 (13.9)

Big-play threat with no floor. LAC passing more.

Larry Fitzgerald

WR60 (8.6)

WR73 (7.3)

Adam Humphries

WR61 (8.3)

WR52 (10.7)

Michael Gallup

WR62 (8.0)

WR89 (5.1)

Russell Gage

WR63 (8.0)

WR71 (7.4)

Marvin Jones

WR64 (7.9)

WR82 (5.9)

Damiere Byrd

WR65 (7.9)

WR68 (7.5)

Julian Edelman

WR66 (7.8)

WR105 (3.9)

Injured WR playing with injured QB.

Scotty Miller

WR67 (7.6)

WR51 (11.0)

Hunter Renfrow

WR68 (7.6)

WR66 (8.0)

Jerry Jeudy

WR69 (7.6)

WR67 (7.8)

John Brown

WR70 (7.3)

WR101 (4.1)

Preston Williams

WR71 (7.3)

WR50 (11.0)

Deonte Harris

WR72 (7.2)

WR63 (8.8)

Isaiah Ford

WR73 (7.1)

WR98 (4.4)

Anthony Miller

WR74 (7.0)

WR90 (5.1)

Marcus Johnson

WR75 (6.9)

WR59 (9.3)

Fantasy Usage Model - TEs

Average fantasy usage and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player

Fantasy Usage

PPR Per Game

Context

Darren Waller

TE1 (17.6)

TE2 (16.9)

Not Kelce or Kittle but close. Easily the TE3.

George Kittle

TE2 (16.2)

TE1 (20.7)

Top-2 TE who feasts in negative script.

Travis Kelce

TE3 (13.4)

TE3 (16.1)

Return TDs, snow played into rare dud.

Austin Hooper

TE4 (12.6)

TE9 (11.8)

Removed Week 7. TE1 without Odell. Buy.

Rob Gronkowski

TE5 (12.6)

TE7 (12.0)

Averaging 12.6 xFPs in last 5. Low-end TE1.

Albert Okwuegbunam

TE6 (12.3)

TE15 (9.8)

Had TE1 usage with Fant hurt.

T.J. Hockenson

TE7 (12.3)

TE8 (11.8)

xFPs per game: Before bye (9.4), after (12.6).

Jonnu Smith

TE8 (11.1)

TE10 (11.5)

Removed Week 6. Athletic on TE1 usage.

Evan Engram

TE9 (10.7)

TE18 (8.7)

Volatile TE1/2 usage. Hopefully traded.

Noah Fant

TE10 (10.4)

TE23 (7.7)

At least 9.7 xFPs in all 5 healthy games.

Eric Ebron

TE11 (10.4)

TE22 (7.7)

Mostly TD-dependent on TE1/2 usage.

Jimmy Graham

TE12 (10.1)

TE17 (9.0)

Trey Burton

TE13 (10.1)

TE11 (11.3)

Low-end TE1 usage since Alie-Cox injury.

Mark Andrews

TE14 (9.9)

TE5 (14.1)

Extremely volatile but elite TE1 spikes.

Hunter Henry

TE15 (9.7)

TE21 (7.8)

LAC had neutral pass rate jump Week 7.

Anthony Firkser

TE16 (9.7)

TE12 (11.0)

A capable streamer if Jonnu ever misses.

Hayden Hurst

TE17 (8.7)

TE13 (10.1)

xFPs P/G: With Julio (10.1), without (7.4).

Tyler Eifert

TE18 (8.2)

TE53 (2.9)

Old TE in awful offense. TE3.

Dalton Schultz

TE19 (7.9)

TE24 (7.6)

Averaging 5.8 expected PPR without Dak.

Mike Gesicki

TE20 (7.9)

TE31 (5.9)

Only 1-of-6 games above 11.0 xFPs. TE2.

Jared Cook

TE21 (7.3)

TE6 (12.7)

Extremely TD-dependent on TE2 usage.

Greg Olsen

TE22 (7.2)

TE35 (5.1)

At least TD-dependent attached to Russ.

Robert Tonyan

TE23 (7.0)

TE4 (14.8)

xFPs P/G: With Adams (9.5), without (2.8).

Irv Smith

TE24 (7.0)

TE27 (6.6)

Entered bye with 3-straight new 2020 highs.

Logan Thomas

TE25 (6.7)

TE19 (8.1)

Still had TE2 usage Week 7 despite TD.

Drew Sample

TE26 (6.7)

TE33 (5.5)

Needs CIN to pass 50 times to be a TE2.

Richard Rodgers

TE27 (6.3)

TE25 (7.5)

Gerald Everett

TE28 (5.9)

TE14 (9.9)

Harrison Bryant

TE29 (5.7)

TE20 (7.9)

Durham Smythe

TE30 (5.6)

TE28 (6.2)

Dawson Knox

TE31 (5.5)

TE52 (3.1)

Tyler Higbee

TE32 (5.2)

TE32 (5.6)

Will Dissly

TE33 (4.8)

TE29 (6.1)

Darren Fells

TE34 (4.8)

TE16 (9.6)

Kyle Rudolph

TE35 (4.7)

TE37 (4.8)

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Fantasy Usage Model - RBs

Average fantasy usage and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments. For more notes, I highly recommend High Value RB Touches.

Player

Fantasy Usage

PPR Per Game

Context

Joe Mixon

RB1 (24.0)

RB3 (24.1)

Removed Week 7. Strong RB1 if healthy.

Alvin Kamara

RB2 (21.8)

RB5 (21.2)

The best fantasy RB by a wide margin.

Mike Davis

RB3 (20.4)

RB9 (18.5)

Avg. 20.6 expected PPR points post CMC.

Derrick Henry

RB4 (20.2)

RB1 (25.0)

Slightly more boom-bust than other RB1s.

Dalvin Cook

RB5 (19.6)

RB2 (24.3)

Myles Gaskin

RB6 (19.2)

RB17 (15.3)

Touch shares: Leading (37%), trailing (21%).

James Conner

RB7 (19.0)

RB16 (15.5)

Avg. 19.7 expected PPR points since Wk 1.

Ronald Jones

RB8 (18.8)

RB12 (17.8)

Week 7 xFPs: Fournette (21.4), RoJo (12.1)

David Montgomery

RB9 (18.8)

RB23 (13.3)

RB1 usage on RB6 athleticism. RB2.

David Johnson

RB10 (18.4)

RB22 (14.0)

Melvin Gordon

RB11 (18.1)

RB6 (20.9)

Ezekiel Elliott

RB12 (18.1)

RB14 (16.5)

Not a top-3 RB anymore. Still a RB1.

Todd Gurley

RB13 (18.0)

RB8 (19.1)

James Robinson

RB14 (17.8)

RB11 (17.9)

RB1 without Thompson. High-end RB2 with.

Chris Carson

RB15 (17.8)

RB4 (22.5)

Could miss a few weeks. Same with Hyde.

Aaron Jones

RB16 (17.5)

RB10 (18.1)

Top-5 RB when healthy.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

RB17 (17.3)

RB21 (14.3)

Week 7 xFPs: CEH (13.3), Bell (4.8). RB2.

D'Andre Swift

RB18 (15.9)

RB7 (19.1)

20.0 & 16.7 expected PPR points since bye.

Kareem Hunt

RB19 (15.5)

RB15 (16.1)

Chubb should be returning with 2-3 weeks.

Josh Jacobs

RB20 (15.5)

RB25 (13.0)

Touch shares: Leading (45%), trailing (18%).

Antonio Gibson

RB21 (15.3)

RB18 (15.3)

Touch shares: Leading (36%), trailing (21%).

Kenyan Drake

RB22 (15.0)

RB26 (12.6)

Edmonds SZN.

Devonta Freeman

RB23 (15.0)

RB30 (11.4)

Jamaal Williams

RB24 (14.7)

RB20 (14.4)

Top-8 RB1 whenever Jones is out.

Darrell Henderson

RB25 (14.3)

RB31 (11.3)

Jonathan Taylor

RB26 (12.6)

RB24 (13.3)

Miles Sanders

RB27 (12.5)

RB13 (17.2)

Injuries played into low ranking. Top-10 RB1.

Chase Edmonds

RB28 (12.0)

RB19 (15.2)

Raheem Mostert

RB29 (11.9)

RB28 (12.3)

Alexander Mattison

RB30 (11.4)

RB35 (9.4)

Devin Singletary

RB31 (11.4)

RB39 (8.8)

J.D. McKissic

RB32 (10.9)

RB32 (11.0)

Joshua Kelley

RB33 (10.6)

RB44 (7.1)

Week 7 xFPs: Kelley (15.9), Jackson (11.1).

Justin Jackson

RB34 (10.6)

RB34 (9.7)

Week 7 xFPs: Kelley (15.9), Jackson (11.1).

James White

RB35 (10.5)

RB33 (9.8)

Nyheim Hines

RB36 (9.9)

RB47 (6.3)

Adrian Peterson

RB37 (9.8)

RB38 (8.8)

Malcolm Brown

RB38 (9.7)

RB41 (7.7)

Latavius Murray

RB39 (9.7)

RB29 (11.9)

Phillip Lindsay

RB40 (9.2)

RB36 (9.0)

Giovani Bernard

RB41 (9.0)

RB37 (8.9)

Jerick McKinnon

RB42 (8.5)

RB42 (7.5)

Boston Scott

RB43 (8.3)

RB56 (5.4)

Frank Gore

RB44 (8.2)

RB49 (6.2)

Mark Ingram

RB45 (8.0)

RB40 (8.2)

Post-bye should mean it's Dobbins time.

Gus Edwards

RB46 (7.8)

RB59 (5.0)

Tony Pollard

RB47 (7.7)

RB50 (6.2)

67% of Week 7 touches in garbage time.

Jeff Wilson

RB48 (7.7)

RB27 (12.5)

Lamical Perine

RB49 (7.5)

RB45 (6.9)

Duke Johnson

RB50 (7.4)

RB55 (5.4)

83% of Week 7 touches in garbage time.

J.K. Dobbins

RB51 (7.1)

RB57 (5.4)

Post-bye rookie bump? I hope so.

Brian Hill

RB52 (7.0)

RB51 (5.8)

Rex Burkhead

RB53 (7.0)

RB58 (5.0)

75% of Week 7 touches in garbage time.

Jeremy McNichols

RB54 (6.6)

RB62 (4.2)

Jalen Richard

RB55 (6.4)

RB60 (4.3)

Benny Snell

RB56 (6.4)

RB52 (5.7)

Matt Breida

RB57 (6.4)

RB48 (6.3)

Wayne Gallman

RB58 (6.1)

RB46 (6.3)

Damien Harris

RB59 (6.0)

RB43 (7.4)

Empty-calorie touch king.

Royce Freeman

RB60 (5.2)

RB72 (3.3)

Leonard Fournette

RBNA (21.4)

RB (15.7)

Only includes Week 7. Backfield still TBD.

Carlos Hyde

RBNA (13.6)

RB (16.6)

Only 1 game in last four weeks.

Reggie Bonnafon

RBNA (9.3)

RB (15.1)

Only 1 game in last four weeks.

Le'Veon Bell

RBNA (8.6)

RB (7.7)

Only 1 game in last four weeks.

DeAndre Washington

RBNA (7.5)

RB (1.7)

Only 1 game in last four weeks.

The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 8

Part 1: High Value RB Touches & Game Script (Monday)

Part 2: Targets Aren’t Created Equal (Monday Night)

Part 3: Air Yards Report (Monday Night)

Part 4: Fantasy Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)

My Twitter: @HaydenWinks