Updated look at Oklahoma’s win probability for final three games according to ESPN Matchup Predictor
The next three opponents for the Oklahoma Sooners hold a unique distinction. They each hold the last win in the all-time series.
TCU and West Virginia beat the Sooners in 2022. BYU is one of the few teams in college football that the Sooners haven’t beaten. The Cougars are one of six current teams Oklahoma is winless against.
The six include Georgia (I know, don’t remind you), Ole Miss (2024 opponent), Indiana (thanks for Dasan McCullough), Illinois, Navy, and BYU.
The Sooners have a chance to right some wrongs over the final three games of the season if they can win out. Don’t let West Virginia, BYU, or TCU join the group of Big 12 teams that hold a win in the final matchup over the Sooners. Teams like Baylor, Texas Tech, Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State.
At 7-2 with three games remaining, a 10-win season is within their grasp. Fighting to establish their identity matters as well. Going out on a high not in their final season in the Big 12 is a necessity.
Here’s how the ESPN Matchup Predictor sees the remainder of the Sooners’ schedule playing out.
Nov. 11: West Virginia Mountaineers (Norman)
Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 89% (Down from 92.2%)
All-Time Series: 11-3
Projected running record: 8-2
Nov. 18: BYU Cougars (Provo)
LaVell Edwards Stadium (Provo)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 91.7% (Up from 90.8%)
All-Time Series: BYU leads 2-0
Projected running record: 9-2
Nov. 24: TCU Horned Frogs (Norman)
Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 84.7% (Down from 86%)
All-Time Series: 17-6
Projected running record: 10-2
ESPN Football Power Index
The Oklahoma Sooners are the No. 9 team in the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI). The simulations believe the Sooners have a 59.3% chance to win out, a 14.4% chance to win the Big 12, a 0.2% chance to make the College Football Playoff, and a 0.1% chance to win the national title.
The Big 12 title is still on the table, but the College Football Playoff is not just unlikely but is not going to happen.
Analysis
The Sooners picked up win probability points in just one of their remaining three games, the matchup with a reeling BYU Cougars. West Virginia is playing good football and is a team the Sooners can’t take lightly.
TCU is an intriguing team. They’re moving the ball offensively, but they’re turning the ball over a lot and that’s keeping them from winning games.
The Oklahoma Sooners still have a lot to play for this year, even if they’re unlikely to reach the Big 12 title game or the playoff. After a 6-7 season a year ago, Brent Venables, his coaching staff, and the team have shown they’re an improved program. Now it’s time to finish strong and keep improving.
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