Updated look at Oklahoma’s game-by-game win projections after dismantling of Nebraska

·5 min read

When you go on the road into a tough environment and win by 35 points like the Oklahoma Sooners just did, it tends to do something for the national perception of your team.

There’s still a lot to prove, but the Sooners’ 49-14 win over Nebraska was a step in the right direction of creating a new identity for the Oklahoma Sooners. One that’s not satisfied with simply winning. They want to dominate their opponent on both sides of the ball.

Now 3-0, Brent Venables and the Oklahoma Sooners turn their attention to the Big 12 and the incoming Kansas State Wildcats. Kansas State is coming off of a disappointing loss to the Tulane Green Wave, but certainly has a team that can create trouble for the Sooners, even at home.

Oklahoma opened as a double-digit favorite ahead of their primetime showdown with Deuce Vaughn and the Wildcats.

As Big 12 play gets underway, let’s take an updated look at Oklahoma’s win probabilities after their win over Nebraska.

Sept. 24: Kansas State Wildcats (Norman)

Oct 2, 2021; Manhattan, Kansas, USA; Kansas State Wildcats running back Deuce Vaughn (22) runs the ball against Oklahoma Sooners linebacker David Ugwoegbu (2) during the second quarter at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium. Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports

Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 84.3% (Up from 71.3%)

All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 77-21-4

Projected running record: 4-0

Oct. 1: TCU Horned Frogs (Fort Worth)

Sep 2, 2022; Boulder, Colorado, USA; TCU Horned Frogs wide receiver Derius Davis (11) celebrates his touchdown with quarterback Max Duggan (15) in the fourth quarter against the Colorado Buffaloes at Folsom Field. Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 74,5% (Up from 63.6%)

All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 17-5

Projected running record: 5-0

Oct. 8: Texas Longhorns (Dallas)

Oct. 9, 2021; Dallas, Texas; Oklahoma Sooners wide receiver Marvin Mims (17) makes a touchdown catch in front of Texas Longhorns defensive back Darion Dunn (4) during the fourth quarter at the Cotton Bowl. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Cotton Bowl (Dallas)

Predicted Winner: Texas

Sooners Win Probability: 46.5% (Up from 36.2%)

All-Time Series: Texas leads 62-50-5

Projected running record: 5-1

Oct. 15: Kansas Jayhawks (Norman)

Oct. 23, 2021; Lawrence; Kansas Jayhawks running back Devin Neal (4) scores a touchdown against the Oklahoma Sooners during the first half at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 89.3% (Down from 91%)

All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 79-29-6

Projected running record: 6-1

Oct. 22: BYE WEEK

Sep 17, 2022; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Oklahoma Sooners head coach Brent Venables reacts after the game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Memorial Stadium. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

According to ESPN’s matchup predictor, the Sooners will enter the bye week with a 6-1 record heading into a final stretch of the season that includes road trips to Ames and Lubbock and games against Baylor and Oklahoma State in Norman.

Oct. 29: Iowa State Cyclones (Ames, Iowa)

Nov. 20, 2021; Norman, Oklahoma; Iowa State Cyclones quarterback Brock Purdy (15) fumbles the ball in front of Oklahoma Sooners linebacker David Ugwoegbu (2) during the game at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Jack Trice Stadium (Ames)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 64.3% (Up from 57.9%)

All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 78-7-2

Projected running record: 7-1

Nov. 5: Baylor Bears (Norman)

Nov. 16, 2019; Waco, Texas; Oklahoma Sooners defensive lineman Marcus Stripling (33) and Baylor Bears offensive lineman Connor Galvin (76) in action during the game between the Bears and the Sooners at McLane Stadium. Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 68.6% (Up from 58.2%)

All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 28-4

Projected running record: 8-1

Nov. 12: West Virginia Mountaineers (Morgantown)

Sept. 25, 2021; Norman; Oklahoma Sooners safety Delarrin Turner-Yell (32) makes an interception during the first quarter against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium (Morgantown)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 75.9% (Down from 79.3%)

All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 11-2

Projected running record: 9-1

Nov. 19: Oklahoma State Cowboys (Norman)

Nov. 27, 2021; Stillwater; Oklahoma Sooners tight end Brayden Willis (9) catches a pass for a touchdown against Oklahoma State Cowboys cornerback Jarrick Bernard-Converse (24) during the first half at Boone Pickens Stadium. Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports

Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 74.1% (Up from 62.4%)

All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 90-19-7

Projected running record: 10-1

Nov. 26: Texas Tech Red Raiders (Lubbock)

Oct. 30, 2021; Norman; Oklahoma Sooners running back Marcus Major (24) runs with the ball during the second half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Jones AT&T Stadium (Lubbock)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 78.4% (Up from 65.1%)

All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 23-6

Projected running record: 11-1

Summary

Sep 17, 2022; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Oklahoma Sooners wide receiver LV Bunkley-Shelton (6) runs with the ball as Nebraska Cornhuskers defensive end Garrett Nelson (44) defends during the second half at Memorial Stadium. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The Sooners improved their win probability in all but two games after their win over Nebraska; the Kansas and West Virginia games.

The Jayhawks continue to prove that they aren’t the Kansas of old after their big road win over Houston. They’re now 3-0 on the season and have another big nonconference matchup against undefeated Duke this weekend.

West Virginia finally got a win after two heartbreaking losses to Pitt and Kansas to open the season, hence the drop in win probability for the Sooners. That mid-November road trip to Morgantown looms large as the Mountaineers have an improved offense to go along with some difference-makers on defense.

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Story originally appeared on Sooners Wire