Every Monday, I’ll provide updated Heisman, national title and first-overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft odds from PointsBet along with thoughts on potential angles.
|Player||Position||Team||This week||Last week|
|Trevor Lawrence||QB||Clemson Tigers||-110||400|
|Justin Fields||QB||Ohio State Buckeyes||600||600|
|Mac Jones||QB||Alabama Crimson Tide||700||1400|
|Kyle Trask||QB||Florida Gators||2000||400|
|D’Eriq King||QB||Miami Hurricanes||2500||600|
|Shane Buechele||QB||SMU Mustangs||2500||2000|
|Najee Harris||RB||Alabama Crimson Tide||2500||3000|
|Travis Etienne||RB||Clemson Tigers||2500||N/A|
|Kellen Mond||QB||Texas A&M Aggies||4000||5000|
|Jaylen Waddle||WR||Alabama Crimson Tide||4000||5000|
|Stetson Bennett||QB||Georgia Bulldogs||4000||N/A|
|Spencer Rattler||QB||Oklahoma Sooners||5000||2500|
|Master Teague III||RB||Ohio State Buckeyes||5000||4000|
|DeVonta Smith||WR||Alabama Crimson Tide||5000||5000|
|Zamir White||RB||Georgia Bulldogs||5000||10000|
|Chuba Hubbard||RB||Oklahoma State Cowboys||5000||N/A|
|Ian Book||QB||Notre Dame Irish||6000||3000|
|Sam Howell||QB||North Carolina Tarheels||8000||4000|
|Sean Clifford||QB||Penn State Nittany Lions||8000||5000|
|Sam Ehlinger||QB||Texas Longhorns||10000||2500|
|Tanner Morgan||QB||Minnesota Gophers||10000||10000|
|Kadarius Toney||OW||Florida Gators||10000||15000|
|CJ Verdell||RB||Oregon Ducks||10000||N/A|
|Jack Coan||QB||Wisconsin Badgers||10000||10000|
|Adrian Martinez||QB||Nebraska Cornhuskers||15000||15000|
|JD Spielman||WR||TCU Horned Frogs||15000||15000|
|Taulia Tagovailoa||QB||Maryland Terrapins||15000||15000|
|Charlie Brewer||QB||Baylor Bears||15000||15000|
|Feleipe Franks||QB||Arkansas Razorbacks||15000||15000|
|Micale Cunningham||QB||Louisville Cardinals||20000||6000|
|Bo Nix||QB||Auburn Tigers||20000||8000|
|Matt Corral||QB||Ole Miss Rebels||20000||20000|
|Amon-Ra St. Brown||WR||USC Trojans||20000||N/A|
|JT Daniels||QB||Georgia Bulldogs||N/A||1400|
|KJ Costello||QB||Mississippi State Bulldogs||N/A||2000|
|Bryce Young||QB||Alabama Crimson Tide||N/A||2500|
|Myles Brennan||QB||LSU Tigers||N/A||5000|
|John Rhys Plumlee||OW||Ole Miss Rebels||N/A||6000|
|Brady White||QB||Memphis Tigers||N/A||10000|
|Seth Williams||WR||Auburn Tigers||N/A||10000|
|Shawn Robinson||QB||Missouri Tigers||N/A||15000|
|Jarrett Guarantano||QB||Tennessee Volunteers||N/A||15000|
|Hendon Hooker||QB||Virginia Tech Hokies||N/A||15000|
|Tylan Wallace||WR||Oklahoma State Cowboys||N/A||20000|
|Pooka Williams Jr.||RB||Kansas Jayhawks||N/A||20000|
|Javian Hawkins||RB||Louisville Cardinals||N/A||20000|
|Spencer Sanders||QB||Oklahoma State Cowboys||N/A||25000|
- Last week in this space, we talked about how you’d want to place your bet on Trevor Lawrence if you liked Clemson to beat Miami. Lawrence completed 29-of-41 passes for 292 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 34 yards and another score as the Tigers blew out the Hurricanes 42-17. Lawrence’s odds were slashed from +400 all the way to -110, an astronomical rise in implied probability. His odds of winning the award definitely increased on Saturday, but Lawrence is no longer a good value bet. At this price, you’d be taking Lawrence against the field and not even getting even money.
- D’Eriq King was of course on the other side of that beatdown. He struggled against Clemson’s mighty defense, going 12-for-28 for 121 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. King’s odds fell from +600 to +2500. Even at 25-to-1, there doesn’t appear to be much value here. This was King’s shot to make a statement and he blew it. Voters won’t forget.
- Kyle Trask’s price likewise dropped after Florida was upset by Texas A&M. Trask fell from a +400 frontrunner to +2000. Trask is going to keep putting up video game numbers. If you think Florida can run the table from here on out, now’s the time to buy low.
- Mac Jones’ odds were slashed in half, from +1400 to +700. Jones threw for 417 yards and two TD in a win over Ole Miss on Saturday. Jones’ hot start has locked him into the starting job. Subsequently, PointsBet has removed five-star freshman QB Bryce Young from the board.
- Amid all the movement around him, Justin Fields remained at +600. Fields is the best value bet on the board. He’s the one legitimate challenger to Lawrence at present. Getting 6-to-1 on Fields as opposed to paying 1-to-1.1 on Lawrence is a no-brainer.
- Stetson Bennett makes his debut on the PointsBet Heisman board this week at +4000. That means he’s tied for the ninth-best odds in the nation. Bennett is a game-manager only, and thus I don’t believe he has much of a shot of winning the award. However, Georgia will have a decent chance of running the table if it can upset Alabama this week. If you like Bennett more than me and think the Bulldogs have a shot of beating the Tide, now’s the time to play odds arbitrage with his price.
- Spencer Rattler and Sam Ehlinger, who played each other this past weekend, continue to freefall down the board. Both have, for all intents and purposes, been eliminated from the race.
- Among the group departing the board this week is K.J. Costello. What an incredible fall in two weeks. Costello was listed at +800 after his 623-yard, five-touchdown performance in the Bulldogs’ 44-34 upset over defending national champions LSU in the opener. He fell to +2000 after throwing three interceptions in an upset loss to Arkansas. After throwing four interceptions and getting benched against Kentucky in a game Mississippi State didn’t score a single offensive point, Costello is no longer even listed.
|Team||This week||2 weeks ago|
|Ohio State Buckeyes||300||250|
|Alabama Crimson Tide||300||350|
|Notre Dame Irish||3000||4000|
|Penn State Nittany Lions||3000||3000|
|Texas A&M Aggies||5000||3000|
|Iowa State Cyclones||8000||25000|
|Kansas State Wildcats||10000||40000|
|North Carolina Tarheels||10000||15000|
|Minnesota Golden Gophers||10000||10000|
|Oklahoma State Cowboys||15000||15000|
|Virginia Tech Hokies||20000||20000|
|West Virginia Mountaineers||25000||30000|
|South Carolina Gamecocks||25000||20000|
|Florida State Seminoles||50000||30000|
|Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns||50000||50000|
|Coastal Carolina Chanticleers||100000||N/A|
|Marshall Thundering Herd||100000||50000|
|Mississippi State Bulldogs||N/A||25000|
|TCU Horned Frogs||N/A||25000|
|NC State Wolfpack||N/A||25000|
|Boston College Eagles||N/A||40000|
|Wake Forest Demon Deacons||N/A||40000|
|Duke Blue Devils||N/A||50000|
|Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets||N/A||50000|
|Texas Tech Red Raiders||N/A||50000|
|South Florida Bulls||N/A||75000|
|Texas State Bobcats||N/A||100000|
|Tulane Green Wave||N/A||100000|
|UL Monroe Warhawks||N/A||100000|
|Vanderbilt Commodores Commodores||N/A||100000|
|Western Kentucky Hilltoppers||N/A||100000|
- Clemson checks in alone at the top of the board at +200. Clemson hasn’t been challenged yet. Despite blowing out Virginia and No. 7 Miami, Clemson’s odds only dropped 50 cents from two weeks ago. A 2-to-1 pricetag seems a bit steep, but that’s probably the best price you’re going to get on Clemson the rest of the regular season so long as they keep winning.
- Ohio State and Alabama are the only two teams within shouting distance of Clemson; both are listed at +300. Like Clemson, each price was reduced 50 cents from two weeks ago. Alabama is coming off a closer-than-expected win over Ole Miss.
- Ohio State opens its season next weekend. The Buckeyes should be considered the relative bargain bet of the frontunners -- ala Fields on the Heisman board. Ohio State remains SP+’s No. 1-ranked team. Should Buckeye investors really be getting 3-to-1 while Clemson bettors have to pay 2-to-1 odds? Ohio State’s odds will start dropping when they kick off.
- Florida dropped to +2500 from +1600 two weeks ago. The Gators were upset by Texas A&M this past weekend. They’ll likely have to run the table in the regular season to have a shot at the playoffs.
- Despite that win for the Aggies, they’ve fallen from +3000 to +5000 over the last two weeks due the 52-24 loss to Alabama at the beginning of the month. If you’re looking for a longshot, A&M at 50-to-1 is worth a look. The schedule lines up really well for A&M going forward: With Mississippi State, Arkansas, South Carolina, Tennesse, Ole Miss, LSU and Auburn left to go, it’s possible A&M will be favored in every remaining regular season game.
- Over the past two weeks, the three biggest risers in the nation are Kansas State, Iowa State and BYU.
- Iowa State has rallied from a +25000 extreme-longshot to +1100, standing alone at No. 11 on PointsBets’ board. The Cyclones were upset by Louisiana in the opener, but have since beaten TCU, Oklahoma and Texas Tech. After a bye, ISU has a huge matchup at Oklahoma State on October 24.
- Kansas State, which has gone from +40000 to +10000, has had a similar trajectory to its season. The Wildcats were upset by a depleted Arkansas State team 35-31 in the opener. Since, they’ve beaten Oklahoma, Texas Tech and TCU -- the same three teams the Cyclones have.
- BYU (4-0) has seen its odds slashed by a third, from +30000 to +10000. The Cougars beat Navy, Troy and Louisiana Tech by 31 points or more before sneaking past UTSA 27-20 last week. The only challenging opponents left on BYU’s schedule are Houston, Boise State and San Diego State. BYU may have a coinflip chance of finishing the regular season undefeated -- but what ancillary circumstances would be required for the Cougars to be selected into the four-team field by the committee?
- Your two biggest fallers of the past two weeks? They just played in the Red River Showdown! Two weeks ago, Oklahoma ranked among the five-highest-listed teams on the board at +2000. Despite beating Texas, the Sooners have fallen all the way to +10000 due to upset losses to Iowa State and Kansas State.
- The Longhorns, meanwhile, have freefallen from +2500 to +20000 after losses to TCU and Oklahoma.
- The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers and Florida International Panthers are two new additions to the board. Each are listed at +100000. Save your money.
- Wisconsin went from +4000 to +5000 after news of starting QB Jack Coan’s injury. Coan’s backup Graham Mertz is the highest-ranked signal-caller that Wisconsin has ever signed. I don’t see Wisko winning the natty, but their odds shouldn’t have dropped any based on Coan’s status -- there’s a decent chance that Mertz is the better player.
- Penn State remains +3000 despite LB Micah Parsons’ announcement affirming he’ll opt-out.
- Several teams have been removed from the board. That list includes the Tennessee Volunteers, Mississippi Rebels, Mississippi State Bulldogs, Kentucky Wildcats, Louisville Cardinals, TCU Horned Frogs, NC State Wolfpack and defending champ LSU Tigers. One thing is for sure in this wonky, pandemic-themed season: We’re going to crown a new CFB champion in 2020.
Odds to go 1st overall in the 2021 NFL Draft
|Patrick Surtain II||5000|
|Amon-Ra St. Brown||10000|
- Unlike the Heisman, where there’s more variance, this bet can truly be seen as Trevor Lawrence against the field. And at -300, Lawrence’s implied probability of going 1.1 accurately reflects reality. In fact, you could make the argument that Lawrence remains a bit of a discount at 3-to-1 odds.
- As I see it, there are only three guys who could steal the 1.1 slot from Lawrence (barring something catastrophic like serious injury): Justin Fields, Penei Sewell, or an unforeseen quarterback rallying up the board.
- Fields, at +300, is worth a look. He’ll need to take a legitimate step forward and hope that Lawrence doesn’t keep playing this well. But he at least has a shot of going first overall.
- Sewell at +425 is probably the better bet. Sewell is one of the best offensive line prospects to enter the league in the last decade. If a team like the Dolphins picks first, and the team behind them also desperately needs an offensive tackle but is set at quarterback (Bengals?), Miami could theoretically turn down monster offers for the top pick in order to guarantee itself Sewell.
- The only other players I could envision going 1.1 at this point are Kyle Trask or Zach Wilson if either has a Joe Burrow-like season and rise. Trask has 8.5-to-1 odds. Wilson isn’t listed.
- Trey Lance (+1000) probably saw his odds of rallying to the 1.1 slot die when NDSU’s season ended after one game. Lance has officially begun NFL Draft preparations. He only made 17 starts in the FCS. The ceiling is enormous, but the bust risk from Lance’s unprecedented lack of seasoning are going to prevent a team from picking him over Lawrence (and probably Fields). I'd pass at that price.
Games of note this weekend:
No. 1 Clemson at Georgia Tech
Pittsburgh at No. 13 Miami
Louisville at No. 4 Notre Dame
LSU at No. 10 Florida
No. 3 Georgia at No. 2 Alabama
Boston College at No. 23 Virginia Tech
No. 11 Texas A&M at Mississippi State
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