Updated game-by-game predictions for Texas using ESPN’s FPI after the Arkansas loss

·2 min read

The Steve Sarkisian era got off to a hot start in Week 1, where they defeated then ranked No. 23 Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns 38-18 and looked solid and composed in all three phases.

Week 2 was a completely different story. Texas traveled to Fayetteville on Saturday evening to face Arkansas and were completely dominated in the trenches. In fact, it’s hard to find a single positive takeaway from the 40-21 loss to the Razorbacks.

The offensive line struggles for Texas happened to be the biggest storyline, but Pete Kwiatkowski’s defensive unit also gave up 333 rushing yards on the ground. Even the special teams had their fair share of miscues, as kicker Cameron Dicker missed a field goal attempt for the second consecutive week, while also bobbled the snap on a punt that Arkansas later took advantage of.

Texas certainly needs to make some adjustments before beginning conference play on Sept. 25.

In ESPN’s updated Football Power Index, Texas is now favored in all but two of the remaining games on their schedule. The game-by-game predictions below are laid out by win probability for each matchup.

Texas’ matchups with Kansas and Rice present the highest win probability, while Oklahoma and Iowa State show the lowest. Prior to the Arkansas loss, the Longhorns were favored to defeat Iowa State. Now, the Cyclones are favored in that matchup.

Sept. 18: vs. Rice

AP Photo/Michael Woods

Win Probability: 95.5%

Last meeting: Texas 48, Rice 13 (Sept. 14, 2019)

Sept. 25: vs. Texas Tech

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability: 78.7%

Last meeting: Texas 63, Texas Tech 56 (Sept. 26, 2020)

Oct. 2: at TCU

Brett Rojo-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability: 51.7%

Last meeting: TCU 33, Texas 31 (Oct. 3, 2020)

Oct. 9: vs. Oklahoma (Dallas)

Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability: 18.6%

Last meeting: Oklahoma 53, Texas 45 (Oct. 10, 2020)

Oct. 16: vs. Oklahoma State

Rob Ferguson-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability: 77.3%

Last meeting: Texas 41, Oklahoma State 34 (Oct. 31, 2020)

Oct. 30: at Baylor

Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability: 58.9%

Last meeting: Texas 27, Baylor 16 (Oct. 24, 2020)

Nov. 6: at Iowa State

Breece Hall
Breece Hall

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability: 43.6%

Last meeting: Iowa State 23, Texas 20 (Nov. 27, 2020)

Nov. 13: vs Kansas

Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability: 97.0%

Last meeting: Texas 50, Kansas 48 (Oct. 19, 2019)

Nov. 20: at West Virginia

Rob Ferguson-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability: 55.2%

Last meeting: Texas 17, West Virginia 13 (Nov. 7, 2020)

Nov. 26: vs Kansas State

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability: 82.5%

Last meeting: Texas 69, Kansas State 31 (2020)