Updated ESPN game-by-game predictions for Ohio State football’s remaining schedule, Week 7

·3 min read

Each week we like to check in with the Football Power Index from ESPN to see what it predicts for the remaining games on OSU’s schedule. It’s been an up and down look with the percentage probability of winning each game ebbing and flowing with the results across the entire landscape of the sport.

Ohio State showed some warts early but rebounded the last couple of weeks. There was even a point in which Michigan was favored to beat the Buckeyes according to the model. That changed with all the formulaic genius that apparently goes into ESPN’s sausage-making, so let’s check in to see where things are today.

We’ve already seen Ohio State move back up into the top five in both the USA TODAY Sports AFCA Coaches and AP Poll, but how did all the probabilities change with the game-by-game predictions after the bye-week?

Oct. 23 at Indiana

Indiana reiterates stance on Ohio State going to B1G Championship Game
Indiana reiterates stance on Ohio State going to B1G Championship Game

Indiana coach Tom Allen talks to Indiana players before running onto the field against Michigan State at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Saturday, Nov. 14, 2020. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, Indiana)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 90.3% (up from 90.1%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 76-12-5

Projected running record: 6-1

Oct. 30 vs. Penn State

Penn State’s Brandon Smith almost comes up with an interception in the second quarter against Auburn at Beaver Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 18, 2021, in State College. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 79.4% (up from 79.0%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 21-14

Projected running record: 7-1

Nov. 6 at Nebraska

Sep 4, 2021; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers quarterback Adrian Martinez (2) looks to hand off the ball to running back Markese Steppingstones (30) during the game against the Fordham Rams in the first half at Memorial Stadium. Credit: Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports

Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, Nebraska)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 77.5% (up from 75.9%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 8-1

Projected running record: 8-1

Nov. 13 vs. Purdue

Purdue head coach Jeff Brohm during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 2, 2021, at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Ind. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 90.9% (down from 93.8%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 39-15-2

Projected running record: 9-1

Nov. 20 vs. Michigan State

Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker III, right, celebrates after a run against Nebraska during overtime on Saturday, Sept. 25, 2021, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 83.0% (up from 82.2%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 34-15

Projected running record: 10-1

Nov. 27 at Michigan

NFL scouts paint grim picture of state of Michigan football program
NFL scouts paint grim picture of state of Michigan football program

Nov. 21, 2020; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Michigan Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh talks with his team before the overtime against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at SHI Stadium. Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Michigan)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 58.2% (up from 57.6%)
All-Time Series: Michigan leads 58-51-6

Projected running record: 11-1

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