Updated ESPN game-by-game predictions for Wisconsin football’s remaining schedule

·3 min read

In a year that began with ESPN’s Football Power Index favoring Wisconsin in every game on their schedule, the Badgers now sit at 2-3. Of their seven remaining games, ESPN FPI now sees two going in their opponents direction.

Each week, ESPN updates their Football Power Index and projects how the rest of Wisconsin’s season will play out. The Badgers are now underdogs in a game that they were favored in all year up until this point, and have only a 36.8% chance of winning their toughest remaining home game according to FPI.

Can the Badgers win out? ESPN FPI sees just above a 1% chance that Wisconsin turns this thing around and finishes at 9-3 on the regular season. Here is a look at each remaining game and the ESPN FPI projection for that contest:

October 16 vs. Army

Oct 2, 2021; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers quarterback Graham Mertz (5) throws a pass during warmups prior to the game against the Michigan Wolverines at Camp Randall Stadium. Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Predicted Winner: Wisconsin
Badgers Win Probability: 79.8%

October 23 at Purdue

Oct 2, 2021; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Paul Chryst looks on during warmups prior to the game against the Michigan Wolverines at Camp Randall Stadium. Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Predicted Winner: Wisconsin
Badgers Win Probability: 57.3%

October 30 vs. Iowa

Oct 9, 2021; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes quarterback Spencer Petras (7) throws a pass during the second quarter against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Kinnick Stadium. Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Predicted Winner: Iowa
Badgers Win Probability: 36.8%

November 6 at Rutgers

Greg Schiano after Isaih Pacheco of Rutgers scored a fourth quarter TD as Rutgers crushed Temple 61-14 in their season opener at SHI Stadium in Piscataway, NJ on September 4, 2021. Credit: Chris Pedota, NorthJersey.com-Imagn Content Services, LLC

Predicted Winner: Wisconsin
Badgers Win Probability: 59.4%

November 13 vs. Northwestern

Sep 3, 2021; Evanston, Illinois, USA; Northwestern Wildcats head coach Pat Fitzgerald reacts after a play against the Michigan State Spartans during the fourth quarter at Ryan Field. Credit: Jon Durr-USA TODAY Sports

Predicted Winner: Wisconsin
Badgers Win Probability: 85.7%

November 20 vs. Nebraska

Aug 28, 2021; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Nebraska quarterback Adrian Martinez (2) runs past Illinois defensive lineman Keith Randolph Jr. (88) in the first quarter at Memorial Stadium. Credit: Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Predicted Winner: Nebraska
Badgers Win Probability: 49.0%

November 27 at Minnesota

Oct 26, 2019; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers quarterback Tanner Morgan (2) calls out a play change at the line of scrimmage in the first quarter against the Maryland Terrapins at TCF Bank Stadium. Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Predicted Winner: Wisconsin
Badgers Win Probability: 57.9%

Chance of winning out: 1.0%

Sep 11, 2021; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers running back Chez Mellusi (6) rushes with the football during the second quarter against the Eastern Michigan Eagles at Camp Randall Stadium. Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of winning conference: 1.0%

Oct 9, 2021; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Wisconsin Badgers running back Braelon Allen (0) runs with the ball as Illinois Fighting Illini linebacker Khalan Tolson (45) pursues in the first half at Memorial Stadium. Credit: Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Strength of schedule remaining: 50th in the country

Oct 9, 2021; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Wisconsin Badgers quarterback Graham Mertz (5) hands the ball to Wisconsin Badgers fullback John Chenal (44) in the first half of Saturday’s game with the Illinois Fighting Illini at Memorial Stadium. Credit: Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

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