Updated ESPN game-by-game FPI predictions for Ohio State’s remaining schedule

·2 min read

Another week is down for the Ohio State football team, and it was a tough one, but the Buckeyes walked away with another win, this time against East division rival Penn State, to improve their record to 5-0 in the Big Ten East and 7-1 overall.

There were some more interesting games across the Big Ten, and we like to see how all of the results affect OSU’s predictive chances of winning each remaining game by looking at the ESPN FPI (Football Power Index) early each week. You have to believe that Michigan’s loss coupled with the win by Michigan State has changed each of those two games respectively, but also, Ohio State’s performance against the Nittany Lions surely had something to do with moving the needle in a few of the contests.

Here’s what ESPN says is the probability of Ohio State winning each of its final regular-season games after Week 9.

Nov. 6 at Nebraska

Oct 16, 2021; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers kicker Connor Culp (33) celebrates his 50-yard field goal against the Minnesota Golden Gophers during the first quarter at Huntington Bank Stadium. Credit: Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, Nebraska)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 82.5% (up from 80.8%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 8-1

Projected running record: 8-1

Nov. 13 vs. Purdue

Purdue head coach Jeff Brohm during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 2, 2021, at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Ind. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 92.7% (down from 93.9%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 39-15-2

Projected running record: 9-1

Nov. 20 vs. Michigan State

Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III (9) runs against Michigan defensive back R.J. Moten (6) during the second half at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing on Saturday, Oct. 30, 2021. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 85.7% (down from 86.5%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 34-15

Projected running record: 10-1

Nov. 27 at Michigan

Michigan defensive line coach Shaun Nua talks to defensive lineman Christopher Hinton (15) and Michigan linebacker David Ojabo (55) during the first half Saturday, Sept. 4, 2021, at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor.

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 63.6% (up from 62.2%)
All-Time Series: Michigan leads 58-51-6

Projected running record: 11-1

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