Updated ESPN FPI game-by-game Ohio State football predictions for remainder of schedule after Week 5

The Ohio State football team is beginning to look like a bunch that is coming together. The wins haven’t exactly been against the best in the country, but Rutgers more than hung with Michigan, and OSU ran the Scarlet Knights off the field early in the game Saturday.

It all has Buckeye fans feeling more optimistic about what might happen in 2021, and has many now pointing toward a team in Columbus that might be getting its act together just in time to make a run at some pretty special things.

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Now, all the caveats and disclaimer apply here about the level of competition, but OSU struggled against the likes of Tulsa a couple of weeks ago, so it’s definitely better than the alternative.

With the last couple of improving weeks in the rearview mirror, it feels like a good time to check in with what the ESPN FPI now says about predicting the remainder of the Ohio State football schedule. Has OSU made any progress in the percentage chance of winning each game? Is Michigan still favored to take down the Buckeyes in the Big House at the end of the year?

Let’s get into it, shall we?

Oct. 9 vs. Maryland

Sep 17, 2021; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Maryland Terrapins wide receiver Dontay Demus jr. (7) catches a pass while defended by Illinois Fighting Illini defensive back Joriell Washington (10) in the second half. Credit: Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports


Ohio Stadium (Columbus)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 93.4% (up from 87.4%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 6-0

Projected running record: 5-1

Oct. 23 at Indiana

Sep 11, 2021; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Indiana Hoosiers wide receiver Ty Fryfogle (3) misses a pass against Idaho Vandals cornerback Marcus Harris (11) during the second half at Memorial Stadium. Indiana won 56-14. Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, Indiana)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 87.9% (up from 84.3%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 76-12-5

Projected running record: 6-1

Oct. 30 vs. Penn State

Oct 2, 2021; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Sean Clifford (14) runs with the ball during the third quarter against the Indiana Hoosiers at Beaver Stadium. Penn State defeated Indiana 24-0. Credit: Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports


Ohio Stadium (Columbus)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 75.2% (up from 73.2%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 21-14

Projected running record: 7-1

Nov. 6 at Nebraska

Sep 4, 2021; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers linebacker Jojo Domann (13) celebrates with linebacker Garrett Nelson (44) after intercepting the pass during the game against the Fordham Rams in the first half at Memorial Stadium. Credit: Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports

Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, Nebraska)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 71.1% (down from 71.9%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 8-1


Projected running record: 8-1

Nov. 13 vs. Purdue

Purdue head coach Jeff Brohm during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 2, 2021, at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Ind. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 91.8% (up from 87.6%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 39-15-2

Projected running record: 9-1

Nov. 20 vs. Michigan State

Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker III, right, celebrates after a run against Nebraska during overtime on Saturday, Sept. 25, 2021, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. Credit: USA TODAY Sports


Ohio Stadium (Columbus)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 81.3% (up from 76.2%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 34-15

Projected running record: 10-1

Nov. 27 at Michigan

Michigan defensive line coach Shaun Nua talks to defensive lineman Christopher Hinton (15) and Michigan linebacker David Ojabo (55) during the first half Saturday, Sept. 4, 2021, at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Michigan)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State (change from Michigan)
Buckeyes Win Probability: 51.2% (up from 46.9%)
All-Time Series: Michigan leads 58-51-6

Projected running record: 11-1 (change from 10-2)

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