If you follow us at all here at Buckeyes Wire, then you know I’m a big fan of checking in on the analytics website FiveThirtyEight. I love analytics, not because they tell the whole story of what’s going on within the confines of competition, but because they at least tell part of the story that’s going on.

And while predicting which teams will make the College Football Playoff isn’t quite to that level, I’d say the folks at FiveThirtyEight have more data and formulas that I trust more than others that try to do something similar.

Along those lines, and between the same guardrails, FiveThirtyEight updated its 2022 College Football Playoff Predictions model after the initial release of the 2022 College Football rankings on Tuesday, and it did indeed change some things from before that baseline was set.

As you can imagine, teams like Ohio State, Georgia, Tennessee, Clemson, Michigan, and Alabama have some of the best odds. But it’s more than that. You can even play around with if teams win out or have a conference championship in their pocket to see how it changes all of the numbers.

Here’s where things stand after Week 9 and after all the bruhaha of the first CFP rankings on Tuesday. Oh, and we are only including teams that have a 5% chance or better just so we have some ground rules set.

No. 15 (tie) - Illinois Fighting Illini (7-1)

Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

5% (⇑)

Chances if win out

96%

No. 15 (tie) - LSU Tigers (6-2)

Sep 17, 2022; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA; LSU Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) runs the ball against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Tiger Stadium. Credit: Scott Clause-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

5% (⇑)

Chances if win out

87%

No. 12 (tie) - North Carolina Tar Heels (7-1)

Oct 30, 2021; South Bend, Indiana, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels wide receiver Josh Downs (11) carries in the third quarter against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Notre Dame Stadium. Credit: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

6% (⇑)

Chances if win out

64%

No. 12 (tie) - Ole Miss Rebels (7-1)

Oct. 12, 2019; Columbia, MO, USA; A general view of a Mississippi Rebels helmet during the game against the Missouri Tigers at Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field. Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

6% (⇑)

Chances if win out

67%

No. 12 (tie) - Kansas State Wildcats (6-2)

Sep 24, 2022; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Kansas State Wildcats quarterback Adrian Martinez (9) reacts after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Oklahoma Sooners at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

6% (⇑)

Chances if win out

63%

No. 10 (tie) - Utah Utes (6-2)

Sep 3, 2022; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Utah Utes place kicker Jordan Noyes (67) smiles as he makes an extra point against the Florida Gators during the second half at Steve Spurrier-Florida Field. Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

7% (⇑)

Chances if win out

25%

No. 10 (tie) - UCLA Bruins (7-1)

Sep 3, 2022; Pasadena, California, USA; UCLA Bruins quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson (1) celebrates his touchdown scored against Bowling Green Falcons with offensive lineman Raiqwon O’Neal (71) during the second half at Rose Bowl. Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

7% (⇑)

Chances if win out

54%

No. 9 - USC Trojans (7-1)

Sep 24, 2022; Corvallis, Oregon, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) runs against Oregon State Beavers defensive back Rejzohn Wright (2) at Reser Stadium. Credit: Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

12% (⇔)

Chances if win out

65%

No. 8 - Oregon Ducks (7-1)

Sep 24, 2022; Pullman, Washington, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Bo Nix (10) audibles against the Washington State Cougars in the first half at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

14% (⇑)

Chances if win out

70%

No. 6 (tie) - TCU Horned Frogs (8-0)

Oct 22, 2022; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Max Duggan (15) scrambles abasing Kansas State Wildcats defensive end Brendan Mott (38) in the first quarter at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

29% (⇑)

Chances if win out

>99%

No. 6 (tie) - Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1)

Sep 17, 2022; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban talks to quarterback Bryce Young (9) during the second half against the UL Monroe Warhawks at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

29% (⇓)

Chances if win out

98%

No. 5 - Michigan Wolverines (8-0)

ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN – OCTOBER 29: Quinten Johnson #28 and Joe Taylor #39 of the Michigan Wolverines celebrate a turnover on downs against the Michigan State Spartans during the fourth quarter at Michigan Stadium on October 29, 2022, in Ann Arbor, Michigan. (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

34% (⇓)

Chances if win out

>99%

No. 4 - Tennessee Volunteers (8-0)

Oct 22, 2022; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Volunteers wide receiver Jalin Hyatt (11) is congratulated by offensive lineman Javontez Spraggins (76) and offensive lineman Jerome Carvin (75) after scoring a touchdown against the Tennessee Martin Skyhawks during the first half at Neyland Stadium. Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

48% (⇑)

Chances if win out

>99%

No. 3 - Clemson Tigers (8-0)

Oct 8, 2022; Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts, USA; Clemson Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney talks to his players during the second half against the Boston College Eagles at Alumni Stadium. Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

57% (⇓)

Chances if win out

>99%

No. 2 - Georgia Bulldogs (8-0)

Georgia Bulldogs running back Branson Robinson (22) celebrates with Georgia Bulldogs tight end Cade Brock (44) after scoring a touchdown during the second half of an NCAA college football game between Auburn and Georgia in Athens, Ga., on Saturday, Sept. 8, 2022. News Joshua L Jones

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

60% (⇓)

Chances if win out

>99%

No. 1 - Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0)

Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., right, celebrates with teammate Emeka Egbuka (2) after scoring a touchdown during an NCAA football game against Iowa, Saturday, Oct. 22, 2022, at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

68% (⇑)

Chances if win out

>99%

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