What the Unequal Distribution of Monthly Website Visits Tells Us About Apple’s Q1

·3 min read

The most valued company in the world, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), is set to announce its 1QF22 results after the market closes on Thursday, January 27. In anticipation of the upcoming earnings release, we used TipRanks’ new tool to look into Apple’s monthly website visits, to gain a clearer picture about how the top-line might have performed in the quarter to be reported.

Apple’s products, namely iPhone, iPod, iPad, AirPod, Mac series, Apple TV, AirTag, HomePod, and device accessories are sold via the official apple.com website, as well as by a handful of other authorized online retailers. Thus, a higher number of monthly users to the website holds the possibility of higher revenues for the company, and vice versa.

For this reason, when the monthly users tool showed us a sequential drop in total estimated visits to the apple.com website in FQ1, we were a tad disappointed. More precisely, there was a 4.15% drop in total visits to the website globally in FQ1 since the previous quarter.

Moreover, when compared to the same quarter in Fiscal 2021, the tool showed us that there has been a 17.75% year-over-year decline in total estimated website visits in 1QF22.

The tool also showed us something particularly bewildering. In a general sense, the company should have benefited from the pre-holiday and holiday seasons. On the contrary, the month of December witnessed the sharpest decline in total monthly users visiting the website. Indeed, retail sales data and the Chinese Academy of Information and Communication Technology (CAICT) discovered a slowdown in sales momentum in December, which conforms with the information we have from the monthly website visits tool.

That said, there is a much more going on at Apple than what meets the eye. Persistent supply constraints likely impacted sales.

More Takers for Apple TV than for Devices?

Nonetheless, the tool also helped us see that more users watched Apple TV than in the previous quarter. Notably, there was a rise in total estimated visits to tv.apple.com by 25.83% from the previous quarter. The rise in cases of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus had once again kept many in their homes towards the end of last year, resulting in their logging on to Apple TV more often than usual. This might possibly have reflected in the rise in Apply TV viewers.

While the decline in Apple’s overall monthly user statistics suggests a possibility of an impact to the top-line, Apple TV’s increased website visits may have given Apple room to offset the impact.

Experts Weigh In

Ahead of the 1QF22 earnings release, Goldman Sachs analyst Rod Hall reiterated a Hold rating, with a $142 price target on Apple.

Despite seeing an upside to iPhone sales during the quarter, the slowdown in December made him wary. The retail sales data and CAICT data that we talked about earlier made Hall speculate whether the slowdown was a result of higher purchases earlier into the quarter, or whether it will drive a cautious guidance from Apple for the FQ2.

The analyst consensus, however, is optimistic about Apple, with a Strong Buy rating based on 22 Buys, 4 Holds, and 1 Sell. The Apple stock forecast indicates an average price target of $181.40.

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