UFC Vegas 51 betting: Finding an edge in Vicente Luque vs. Belal Muhammad
LAS VEGAS — Belal Muhammad and Vicente Luque were good prospects when fate threw them together at UFC 205 on Nov. 12, 2016, at Madison Square Garden in New York.
Lyman Good failed an anti-doping test and was yanked from the card, replaced by Luque in late October of 2016. Entering the fight, Muhammad was 1-1 in the UFC and 10-1 overall in MMA. Luque was 3-1 in the UFC and 10-5-1 overall.
Both were regarded as fighters to watch, though no one imagined either would a few years later be vying for championship shots. But when they meet on Saturday at Apex in a rematch of a fight that Luque won by first-round TKO, the winner will be on the short list for the next welterweight title shot.
The division is as deep now as it has been in years, with Nos. 1-6 of Colby Covington, Khamzat Chimaev, Leon Edwards, Gilbert Burns, Luque and Muhammad posing legitimate threats to champion Kamaru Usman’s reign.
Luque is the favorite at BetMGM and is -200. Muhammad is +165.
Luque is probably the better pure striker and Muhammad the better wrestler. Luque’s not known for his submissions, but he’s pulled off D’Arce chokes in each of his last two bouts.
Muhammad looked incredible in a dismantling of Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson in his last outing, but few fighters have been as hot as Luque. Luque has shown the entire package and has won 10 of his last 11.
I like Luque to win the fight, but if the number keeps going up, I’ll pass on him. I don’t want to lay anything more than -200. If it goes up more than that, I’ll pass.
I think it goes the distance, though, and I’ll go with that as my play. "No" is the favorite on whether it goes the distance at -140. "Yes" is even-money at +100.
So I’ll bet it does go the distance, laying $100 to win $100. I’ll play Luque at -200 to win, but would recommend a pass if it creeps higher.
Other plays for UFC Vegas 51, Bellator 277
• On Friday at Bellator 277, featherweight champion A.J. McKee defends the belt against Patricio “Pitbull” Freire, the man he won it from. The odds are too high for me to bet McKee, who is -375. Freire is +280.
I hate doing this, but the numbers will dictate it: Though I like McKee to win, I can’t lay that. BetMGM doesn’t have any props on the fight yet, so I’ll take my chances with Freire at +280 to try to even the score and set up a rubber match.
• I’ll bet Vadim Nemkov at -165 to win over Corey Anderson, who is +135.
• I’ll take Christopher “Beast Boy” Barnett at +190 to win over Martin Buday (-250).
