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UFC Orlando odds, betting: How to attack the Kevin Holland-Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson main event

The only thing better than a solid fight card is a free one filled with exciting matchups. So fight fans get the best of both worlds this Saturday night with UFC Orlando. The main event features former middleweight Kevin Holland against sixth-ranked Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson. Holland has a massive opportunity to insert himself into the top five of the welterweight division with a win over the former title contender.

Holland (23-8-1, 10-5-1 UFC) has found his home at 170 pounds after struggling with the strong grapplers in the middleweight division. He is 2-0 at welterweight in the UFC and finished both of his opponents before bravely stepping up at UFC 279 to fight the much bigger Khamzat Chimaev at a catchweight. Unfortunately, Holland only lasted a little over two minutes before being dragged to the ground, controlled and submitted. However, he won't have to worry about suffering the same fate on Saturday night.

Stephen Thompson, known for his karate-based fighting style, has yet to execute a single takedown since 2015. So by pairing Holland with another dynamic striker, the fans will see both fighters showcasing what they do best, so expect fireworks. Here is why speed will determine who gets his hand raised in the main event and a nice two-fighter parlay that pays out at close to even money.

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - SEPTEMBER 09: Kevin Holland poses on the scale during the UFC 279 ceremonial weigh-in at MGM Grand Garden Arena on September 09, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
Kevin Holland should have some significant advantages against Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson on Saturday night. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)

Kevin Holland (-145) vs. Stephen Thompson (+120)

A few important things to consider when projecting each fighter's path to victory. Thompson can end the fight with a highlight reel leg kick at any time. But that doesn't mean it's likely to happen. Thompson has failed to finish his opponent in his last 10 fights, dating back to 2016 when he TKO'd Johny Hendricks in the first round. "Wonderboy" has evolved into a point fighter who uses his leg kicks as jabs to disrupt his opponent's timing. His patience can be more of a curse, as his willingness to set up the perfect shot often leads to low overall striking output. If you are not putting fighters away, it's tough to sway the judges if you are losing on volume. And I don't expect him to out-land the much faster, more explosive Holland.

Holland's length and closing speed will take away Thompson's typical edge at distance. Most fighters get frustrated by Thompson's ability to evade the pocket, but Holland can use his significant reach advantage to force him into exchanges from the outside. I don't know how long the 39-year-old Thompson wants to test his chin in a firefight. Nevertheless, Holland sets up his entries well with kicks and feints, and should have no problem getting inside and putting Thompson in retreat mode for most of the fight. A Holland finish is certainly in the realm of possibilities. Still, even if it hits the scorecards, Holland should have the flashier moments, more damage inflicted and higher overall output to take home the victory.

The bet: Kevin Holland ML (-145)

Parlay: Rafael dos Anjos/Scott Holtzman (-106)

We are targeting two UFC veterans who had remarkable careers for this parlay, but we are only backing one. You rarely catch me using a fighter in his late 30s as a parlay leg, but dos Anjos will handle Bryan Barberena easily. Dos Anjos still has strong enough wrestling to get Barberena on the mat, pass into a dominant position and unleash a barrage of shots from top control.

We are fading Clay Guida against "Hot Sauce" Holtzman for the second leg. Guida's unpredictable, frenetic style has become much less effective in the twilight of his career. His striking defense won't hold up against the solid boxing of Holtzman, who has enough power to make Guida pay the ultimate price.

Stats provided by ufcstats.com.