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UFC Fight Night 196 predictions: Marvin Vettori or Paulo Costa in 205-pound main event?

·3 min read
In this article:
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Costa
vs.
Vettori

Dawson
vs.
Glenn

Clark
vs.
Edwards

Caceres
vs.
Choi

Grant
vs.
Trinaldo

Negumereanu
vs.
Villanueva

MMA Junkie readers’
consensus picks
2021: 167-97

costa2021


Costa
(57%)

dawson2021


Dawson
(87%)

clark2021


Clark
(75%)

choi2021


Choi
(50.1%)

trinaldo2021


Trinaldo
(63%)

negumereanu2021


Negumereanu
(77%)

John Morgan
@MMAjunkieJohn
2021: 172-92

vettori2021


Vettori

dawson2021


Dawson

clark2021


Clark

choi2021


Choi

trinaldo2021


Trinaldo

negumereanu2021


Negumereanu

Simon Samano
@SJSamano
2021: 166-98

vettori2021


Vettori

dawson2021


Dawson

edwards2021


Edwards

choi2021


Choi

trinaldo2021


Trinaldo

negumereanu2021


Negumereanu

Nolan King
@mma_kings
2021: 164-100

vettori2021


Vettori

dawson2021


Dawson

edwards2021


Edwards

choi2021


Choi

trinaldo2021


Trinaldo

negumereanu2021


Negumereanu

Dan Tom
@DanTomMMA
2021: 161-103

trophy copy

2020 Champion

vettori2021


Vettori

glenn2021


Glenn

clark2021


Clark

choi2021


Choi

trinaldo2021


Trinaldo

villanueva2021


Villanueva

Ken Hathaway
@kenshathaway
2021: 160-104

trophy copy

2018 Champion

costa2021


Costa

dawson2021


Dawson

edwards2021


Edwards

choi2021


Choi

grant2021


Grant

negumereanu2021


Negumereanu

Matt Erickson
@MMAjunkieMatt
2021: 160-104

vettori2021


Vettori

dawson2021


Dawson

clark2021


Clark

choi2021


Choi

trinaldo2021


Trinaldo

negumereanu2021


Negumereanu

Mike Bohn
@MikeBohnMMA
2021: 159-105

trophy copy

2014 Champion

vettori2021


Vettori

dawson2021


Dawson

clark2021


Clark

caceres2021


Caceres

trinaldo2021


Trinaldo

negumereanu2021


Negumereanu

Brian Garcia
@thegoze
2021: 155-109

trophy copy

2017 Champion

costa2021


Costa

dawson2021


Dawson

clark2021


Clark

choi2021


Choi

trinaldo2021


Trinaldo

negumereanu2021


Negumereanu

Danny Segura
@dannyseguratv
2021: 154-110

vettori2021


Vettori

dawson2021


Dawson

edwards2021


Edwards

caceres2021


Caceres

trinaldo2021


Trinaldo

negumereanu2021


Negumereanu

George Garcia
@MMAjunkieGeorge
2021: 153-111

vettori2021


Vettori

dawson2021


Dawson

clark2021


Clark

caceres2021


Caceres

grant2021


Grant

negumereanu2021


Negumereanu

Farah Hannoun
@Farah_Hannoun
2021: 151-113

costa2021


Costa

dawson2021


Dawson

clark2021


Clark

choi2021


Choi

trinaldo2021


Trinaldo

negumereanu2021


Negumereanu

Abbey Subhan
@kammakaze
2021: 150-115

costa2021


Costa

dawson2021


Dawson

clark2021


Clark

choi2021


Choi

trinaldo2021


Trinaldo

negumereanu2021


Negumereanu

Matthew Wells
@MrMWells
2021: 90-58

vettori2021


Vettori

dawson2021


Dawson

clark2021


Clark

caceres2021


Caceres

grant2021


Grant

negumereanu2021


Negumereanu

The UFC stays home in Las Vegas this week with a key middleweight matchup atop the card – thought it won’t be at that weight class.

UFC Fight Night 196 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The card streams on ESPN+.

(Click here to open a PDF of the staff picks grid in a separate window.)

In the main event, Paulo Costa (13-1 MMA, 5-1 UFC) takes on Marvin Vettori (17-4-1 MMA, 7-3-1 UFC) in a fight between the most recent two middleweight title challengers. They both lost to champion Israel Adesanya. But this fight won’t be at middleweight thanks to Costa’s failure to make weight. They’ll fight at 205 pounds after Costa came into fight week heavy and intially asked for a catchweight. Vettori is a -185 favorite at Tipico; the comeback on Costa is +140. Our 13 editors, writers, radio hosts and videographers have Vettori with a 9-4 picks lead.

In the co-feature, Grant Dawson (17-1 MMA, 5-0 UFC) is the biggest favorite on the card at -420 in his lightweight fight against Ricky Glenn (22-6-1 MMA, 4-3 UFC). He’s a near-unanimous pick from our staff members at 12-1.

Also on the main card, Jessica-Rose Clark (10-6 MMA, 3-2 UFC) takes on Joselyne Edwards (10-3 MMA, 1-1 UFC) in a women’s bantamweight bout. Clark is a -160 favorite, and she’s got a sizable 9-4 picks lead.

Alex Caceres (18-12 MMA, 13-10 UFC) meets Seungwoo Choi (10-3 MMA, 3-2 UFC) in a featherweight bout. Choi nearly is a 3-1 favorite, and he’s up big in the picks at 9-4.

It’s a close fight at the betting window between welterweights Dwight Grant (11-3 MMA, 3-2 UFC) and Francisco Trinaldo (26-8 MMA, 16-7 UFC). Trinaldo is just a -135 favorite, but he’s got a big 10-3 edge in the picks.

And to open the main card, Nicolae Negumereanu (10-1 MMA, 1-1 UFC) is a -230 favorite at light heavyweight against Ike Villanueva (18-12 MMA, 1-3 UFC). He’s a near-unanimous pick at 12-1 from our staff members.

In the MMA Junkie reader consensus picks, Costa (57 percent), Dawson (87 percent), Clark (75 percent), Choic (50.1 percent), Trinaldo (63 percent) and Negumereanu (77 percent) are the choices.

Check out all the picks above.