UFC on ESPN 44: Quick picks and prognostications

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC on ESPN 44.

UFC on ESPN 44 takes place Saturday at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Mo. The main card airs on ESPN following prelims on ESPN+..

Last event’s results: 2-3

Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2023: 30-24-2

Welcome to MMAJunkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.

With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by Tipico Sportsbook.

If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.

So, without further ado…

Clay Guida (+210) vs. Rafa Garcia (-275)

The main card on ESPN kicks off with a lightweight fight between [autotag]Clay Guida[/autotag] and [autotag]Rafa Garcia[/autotag].that feels like a throwback to the Joe Silva era.

Although Garcia doesn’t come from a wrestling base, he’s more than capable of chaining his way to takedowns and scoring from topside. That said, I’m not sure how much success Garcia will have wrestling with Guida, which is why I believe that this will likely be a striking battle that goes to the scorecards.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Guida’s activity squeak out another split decision, but I’ll reluctantly side with the more impactful strikes of Garcia to get the win.

Chris Gutierrez (-225) vs. Pedro Munhoz (+180)

Serving as a solid bantamweight offering is a matchup between [autotag]Chris Gutierrez[/autotag] and [autotag]Pedro Munhoz[/autotag].

Despite the dog odds next to Munhoz’s name initially being tempting, I have a hard time backing the Brazilian vet in this more cautious iteration of his career. If Munhoz can get back to his vaunted pressure and submission game, then he has a solid chance to score the upset.

I’ll be happy for Munhoz if he can do it, but I’ll ultimately be siding with the underrated wrestling and counterstriking from Gutierrez to keep things at his range and pace en route to a decision win.

Ion Cutelaba (-135) vs. Tanner Boser (+110)

Despite a potential title eliminator at flyweight somehow getting stuck on the prelims, the UFC matchmakers saw fit to feature a light heavyweight fight between [autotag]Ion Cutelaba[/autotag] and [autotag]Tanner Boser[/autotag].

Even though Cutelaba trains in my backyard of Xtreme Couture, I have a hard time prognosticating the Moldovan wildman due to his unpredictable nature. I mean, let’s face it: Cutelaba fights have about as many f*cked-up outcomes as a Gaspar Noé film.

For that reason, I’ll semi-reluctantly side with Boser to survive the initial storm and stumble upon a finish by round three.

Azamat Murzakanov (+140) vs. Dustin Jacoby (-165)

Filling out the main card is another attraction at light-heavyweight, as [autotag]Azamat Murzakanov[/autotag] meets [autotag]Dustin Jacoby[/autotag].

Despite Murzakanov looking like David Harbour from Stranger Things in both face and physique, the Russian fighter has some deceptive speed and skills in tow.

Even though I’m a big fan of Jacoby and thought he won his last fight, I picked Rountree to win due to Jacoby’s history with southpaws (currently standing at 1-3 against UFC-level lefties) and his propensity to eat left hands.

I hope I’m wrong, but I’ll take a flier on the underdog Murzakanov to score a shocking knockout in the first round.

Billy Quarantillo (-175) vs. Edson Barboza (+145)

The co-main event on ESPN features a featherweight bout with fireworks written all over it.

[autotag]Edson Barboza[/autotag] is no stranger to this spot on the card, but this will be [autotag]Billy Quarantillo[/autotag]’s first time fighting as the co-feature under the UFC umbrella.

Although Barboza is undoubtedly a step up in competition, I believe that Quarantillo has what it takes to beat the dangerous Brazilian vet (who is coming off a year-plus layoff due to injury).

Aside from the fact that Quarantillo is insanely durable with a seemingly endless gas tank, the Buffalo native does the one thing that has traditionally troubled Barboza throughout his entire career—and that’s relentless pressure.

Quarantillo will likely be eating right hands and having his kick defense tested early, but I think that “Billy Q” can survive the early storm in order to pour it on Barboza late and force a stoppage by the third round via ground-and-pound.

Max Holloway (-185) vs. Arnold Allen (+150)

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – APRIL 14: (L-R) Max Holloway and Arnold Allen of England face off during the UFC Fight Night ceremonial weigh-in at T-Mobile Center on April 14, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

The main event in Kansas City features an important featherweight fight between [autotag]Max Holloway[/autotag] and [autotag]Arnold Allen[/autotag].

As stated in my in-depth breakdown, I suspect that the southpaw dynamic that Allen brings to the table makes this match particularly interesting.

Aside from Holloway being at a strange crossroads in his career, the former featherweight champion officially sits at 0-3 opposite UFC-level lefties (losing once to Conor McGregor and twice to Dustin Poirier).

Although Allen has a lot of the tools and capabilities referenced in the tweet above, he has yet to prove that he can keep pace and command of his game five full rounds (as the Englishman has shown signs of flagging come round three).

Couple that with the fact of Allen’s comfort in striking along the cage, and I’ll side with Holloway to successfully navigate early rounds and extend exchanges en route to pulling away down the stretch for a win on the scorecards.

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Story originally appeared on MMA Junkie