The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Get it here!
Betting Props for UFC Vegas 35
Each week I will highlight fights where I see betting value in the prop line. You can bet these props straight or parlay them in cases where the odds are greater than -160. Let’s dig into PointsBet and grab some value.
**Fight: Mana Martinez vs Guido Cannetti
Prop: Mana Martinez/Under 2.5 Rounds -105 on PointsBet
Analysis: Mana Martinez is a finisher with big punching power. He has ended all 8 of his professional wins by KO/TKO. His opponent Guido Cannetti enters this fight at 41 years old and has been finished in his last four UFC losses. Cannetti fights from the outside and uses his leg kicks to keep range. It will be difficult for him to slow the pace with takedowns if he stays on the outside on his back foot. Mana will have plenty of openings if he is able to keep it standing.
**Fight: Sam Alvey vs Wellington Turman
Prop: Same Alvey by KO/TKO +300 on PointsBet
Analysis: Wellington Turman has been finished in the first round in his last two fights. Both finishes were brutal, with Turman laying on his back, eyes rolled back staring at the lights. He’s accepted this fight two months after his last knockout loss. Turman will try to grapple but he has 22% takedown accuracy and Sam Alvey has 82% takedown defense. I like Alvey to defend the takedowns and keep this fight standing. Alvey will strike from the outside and look to connect with a big left hand for a KO/TKO finish.
**Fight: Andrew Petroski vs Michael Gillmore
Prop: Andre Petroski by Submission +120 on PointsBet
Prop: Andre Petroski/Under 2.5 Rounds -159 on PointsBet
Analysis: This fight lines up as the perfect spot for Andre Petroski. Petroski was the favorite to win The Ultimate Fighter in his weight class until he got caught in a submission in the semifinals. He’ll come into this fight hungry for the win to prove that loss was a fluke. Petroski’s plan is to strike at range to set up his takedown so he can take your back. He has heavy top control so his most likely paths to victory are ground and pound finish from top control or submission. Petroski’s opponent Michael Gillmore has three professional losses by submission and was submitted in his short-notice TUF appearance.
Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium Betting Tools that are packed with live odds, betting trends, predictions, player prop projections, our extensive Edge Finder and much more. And don't forget to use promo code SAVE10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more!
**Fight: Alessio Di Chirico vs Abdul Razak Alhassan
Prop: Over 1.5 Rounds -197 on Pointsbet
Analysis: The game plan to beat Abdul Razak Alhassan is extremely clear at this point; strike at range and take him down when he closes the distance. Alessio is a cerebral fighter and we can expect him to carry out that game plan to a victory. Alessio is capable of a late finish here if Alhassan gasses bad and Alessio takes advantage of that later in this fight.
Betting Note: This line is -197 and the next fight has a line of -186. There are plenty of fights on this card that you may want to use in a parlay with these lines. I wouldn’t mind parlaying these with Battle, Emmers, or Aldrich at different price points.
**Fight: Gerald Meerschaert vs Mukhmud Muradov
Prop: Under 2.5 Rounds -186 on PointsBet
Analysis: The implied probability that this fight finishes under 2.5 rounds is 65% and I believe it should be in the 75% range. Muradov is a powerful striker. He has the reputation for starting slow but I expect Meerschaert to pursue the takedown early which will force the action. Meerschaert is capable of a submission finish also as most of his wins are via submission and his two most recent losses are by strikes in the first round.