UFC 286 predictions: Who’s picking Leon Edwards to upset Kamaru Usman again?
MMA Junkie readers’
2018, 2022 Champion
The UFC is back in London for the third time in about a year this week with a welterweight trilogy rematch atop the card.
UFC 286 takes place Saturday at The O2 in London. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPNews and early prelims on ESPN+.
(Click here to open a PDF of the staff picks grid in a separate window.)
In the main event, welterweight champion Leon Edwards (20-3 MMA, 12-2 UFC) takes on former champ Kamaru Usman (20-2 MMA, 15-1 UFC) in a trilogy title rematch. Usman had little issue with Edwards for nearly 25 minutes when they fought this past August, but Edwards pulled off a stunning late head-kick knockout to take the title.
Usman is a -250 favorite at Tipico Sportsbook; the comeback on Edwards is +200. It’s not a shutout, though it is a blowout. Our 11 editors, writers, radio hosts and videographers have Usman ahead at 9-2.
UFC 286: Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman 3 preview show with Dan Hardy
UFC 286 official weigh-in highlights and photo gallery
In the co-feature, Rafael Fiziev (12-1 MMA, 6-1 UFC) takes on former interim lightweight champ Justin Gaethje (23-4 MMA, 6-4 UFC). Fiziev is more than a 2-1 favorite, but it’s Gaethje who has the slimmest possible picks lead at 6-5.
Also on the main card, Bryan Barberena (18-9 MMA, 9-7 UFC) meets Gunnar Nelson (18-5-1 MMA, 9-5 UFC) in a welterweight bout. Nelson is the biggest favorite on the main card at -360, but he has just a 7-4 lead in the picks from our staff members.
Jennifer Maia (20-9-1 MMA, 5-5 UFC) takes on the unbeaten Casey O'Neill (9-0 MMA, 4-0 UFC) in a women’s flyweight bout. O’Neill is a -170 favorite – the smallest favorite on the main card. Yet she is our closest thing to a unanimous pick at 10-1.
And to open the main card, former middleweight title challenger Marvin Vettori (18-5-1 MMA, 8-4-1 UFC) fights Roman Dolidze (12-1 MMA, 6-1 UFC). Vettori nearly is a 3-1 favorite at the betting window, but he only has a 6-5 lead in the picks.
In the MMA Junkie consensus picks, Usman (59 percent), Fiziev (52 percent), Nelson (62 percent), O’Neill (73 percent) and Vettori (59 percent) are the choices.
Check out all the picks above.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 286.