Fearless Forecast: 1006 TOTAL YDS, 89 REC, 6 TD
Projected Rank: 33
MATT HARMON: Tyler Lockett. I love the player still. I mean he was awesome last year, gets open, is a deep threat. He's one of the best deep ball trackers in the NFL still. But he's going to need it this year, with Drew Lock and Geno Smith.
People think because that DK Metcalf actually had a couple of big touchdowns that he was the better receiver when Geno Smith was out there. But Tyler Lockett actually had the higher target share than DK Metcalf in the games that Geno Smith started last year. And I think that probably will remain the same this year.
I mean, this is still a very highly concentrated offense between DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. I know they added Noah Fant. But still, there's really no third receiver there. They don't really throw to the running backs in this offense. I think you can still lock in Tyler Lockett for a 20% to 24% target share in the offense. It's just the season long ceiling is not great. I think the weekly floor could be rough.
That said, and he's going so late in drafts, right? I mean, the talent is just so high that where he goes, I'm not like going out of my way to draft Tyler Lockett this year. But I do think when he slips outside the top 35 receivers, and I'm kind of looking for a high upside wide receiver four, wide receiver five, I think I'll find my way to Tyler Lockett on a couple of drafts.
I'm not again, not going out of my way to draft him. But I am whatever, kind of tepidly in at ADP. Right now I've got him at wide receiver 33. I think he just gets over 1,000 yards and catches 89 balls this year.