Tropical waves in Caribbean could merge before moving north into Gulf of Mexico
Forecasters are keeping an eye on a tropical wave in the southwestern Caribbean as it heads north toward the southern U.S., according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
The system could make its way into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Thursday night, according to AccuWeather.
"Should the system stay over warm waters of the Gulf versus crawling along the coast of Mexico from Friday through Saturday, it could have enough time to organize, strengthen and reach tropical depression or storm status," AccuWeather Meteorologist Matt Benz said.
There is a low chance for development into a named storm.
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Two factors will help determine whether the system becomes the next named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season: how fast it moves and how much time it spends over water as it moves north.
Speaking of a drink of water, latest run of the ECMWF wants to take that tropical things NHC is watching up into TX next week as a rainmaker. We shall see... pic.twitter.com/2r1zmgcYA1
— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) August 17, 2022
Regardless of development, the system could bring showers and thunderstorms into south Texas over the weekend, about a week after another system brought 5 to 10 inches of rain to the same area.
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Weather patterns over northern Africa this summer, the birthplace of many tropical systems, has so far inhibited the development of tropical waves. That may soon change.
Conditions over Africa are becoming conducive enough for more robust tropical waves, according to Dan Kottlowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist and hurricane expert.
The next named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season will be Danielle.
When is hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
Although the season has gotten off to a quiet start, the peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 8 a.m. Aug. 17:
What's out there and where are they?
Caribbean tropical wave: A tropical wave currently located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is forecast to move across Central America during the next few days and emerge over the Bay of Campeche, where an area of low pressure could form on Friday.
Tropical wave 1: Another tropical wave in the western Caribbean is expected to merge with the other wave during the next 24 hours as it moves across Central America, the Gulf of Honduras and into the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday night.
Tropical wave 2: A tropical wave over the central Atlantic is located between Cape Verde and the British Virgin Islands. It's moving to the west at 19 mph.
How likely are they to strengthen?
Caribbean tropical wave: Some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves northwest over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days: low, 20 percent.
Who is likely to be impacted?
Caribbean tropical wave: Even if this system fails to become a tropical depression or storm, a batch of showers and thunderstorms is likely to move into parts of South Texas from Sunday to Monday, according to AccuWeather.
"The downpours can bring another boost in terms of drought relief to South Texas, but may also stir more trouble in terms of flooding," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Heather Zehr said.
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Tropical waves: It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to the U.S. from the other tropical waves out there.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared during what's expected to be an active hurricane season.
Weather watches and warnings issued for your area
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The next five days
See the National Hurricane Center's five-day graphical tropical weather outlook below.
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's out there?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.
What's next?
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This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Tropics watch: 2 tropical waves in Caribbean, 1 in Atlantic
