They tried it, but Washington can’t compare to Cowboys in advanced analytics
The Cowboys have three scenarios for clinching the division this week, and it’s wholly possible their work will be done for them before they hit the field on Sunday night. On Thursday, they earned a spot in the playoffs by virtue of the San Francisco 49ers’ loss at the hand of the Tennessee Titans, but just because others can and have assisted Dallas it doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be prepared to handle their own business.
The Dallas Cowboys (10-4) will host the Washington Football Team (6-8) on Sunday Night Football with the opportunity to give Cowboys fans a late Christmas gift. The Cowboys are currently the No. 2 seed in the NFL and have chance to clinch the divisional title with any of the following scenarios: a win/tie over Washington, a Philadelphia Eagles loss/tie or a combination of 1.5 wins by LV, Jax, LAC, NE, MIN and Atlanta). All of those other contests happen earlier in the day on Sunday, but things still could come down to a divisional matchup.
The Cowboys are riding a three-game-in-three-week road winning streak, the first time they’ve accomplished this feat since 1969. They boast the No. 1 defense in the league on third-down conversions allowed (31.9%) and are tied for No.1 in takeaways with 31 on the season.
The Football Team is in the midst of a five-game stretch of NFC East opponents. They’ve lost the last two games to Dallas and Philadelphia and their playoff odds are getting increasingly smaller with each defeat. Some good news for WFT is that quarterback Taylor Heinicke was removed from COVID protocol and will be eligible to play Sunday Night.
Each week we open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to analyze how each team ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability. Let’s review this week’s edition to see which team will get presents and which will get coal.
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) - Football Outsiders
Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
DVOA is a metric which measures the success of each play as compared to league average using percentage points above or below average. The metric measures down, distance, field location, quarter and quality of opponent.
With DVOA, teams are looking for a higher percentage offensively and a lower percentage defensively. On offense and special teams, the objective is to perform above league average while defenses are looking to force their opponents to perform below league average.
Information via Football Outsiders.
DVOA Offense
Using DVOA to review the offensive side of the ball, the Cowboys have an edge in passing, rushing and overall DVOA.
The Cowboys boast the ninth-highest passing DVOA at 24%. WFT is not far behind Dallas, 17th overall, with a 13.5% passing DVOA. Taking a look at the two QB’s for each team, Dak Prescott has the eighth-highest individual passing DVOA at 14.7% and Taylor Heinicke ranks 18th with a .7% DVOA.
The Cowboys lead in run DVOA by a fairly large margin, although both teams have a negative DVOA when running the football. The Cowboys DVOA of -4% ranks 14th overall while the WFT’s run DVOA of -13.4% ranks 22nd.
The edge in overall offensive DVOA also goes to the Cowboys with an 8.5%, 8th place ranking compared to WFT with a -3.8% DVOA, 19th overall.
Offensive Advantage: Cowboys
DVOA Defense
As a breif reminder, while we are looking for positive DVOA’s on offense, a negative DVOA is better on defense.
As one may expect, the Cowboys have a significant advantage on the defensive side of the ball over WFT. The Cowboys lead the league in passing DVOA at -21.1% . WFT is on the opposite side of the spectrum with an 18.9% DVOA allowed, 27th overall.
WFT takes the advantage in run DVOA against, with a -11.3%, 11th overall. The Cowboys are behind WFT at 19th overall with a -7.1% DVOA.
Overall defensive DVOA favors the Cowboys heavily with a score of -15.6%, 3rd best in the NFL. WFT again finds themselves on the wrong side of the range with a 7.4% DVOA, 28th overall.
With the Cowboys picking up two of the three and having a large gap in overall team DVOA , the Cowboys have the edge here as well.
Defensive Advantage: Cowboys
Overall Advantage: Cowboys (Cowboys lead 5 of the 6 categories)
Expected Points Added and Success Rate
Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
EPA measures the impact a play has on the likelihood of scoring. With EPA, yardage, field position, and down and distance all weigh in on what the expected net points would be for the situation. As an example, a first and goal at the one-yard line would represent a higher EP-Expected Points than a third and 10 on your own 20 yard line.
EPA is the difference between the Expected Points (EP) at the beginning of the play compared to the end of the play. It measures the plays impact on the score of the game.
Success rate is a measure of how often teams get 40% of the needed yards on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down and 100% on third down or fourth down.
EPA figures gathered by rbsdm.
EPA: Offense
Offensive EPA is a clean sweep in favor of the Cowboys.
Rushing EPA/play is fairly close although the Cowboys have the edge, averaging -.082 EPA per rush attempt, 17th overall. The WFT is not far behind with an EPA of -.097 per rushing attempt, 22nd.
Passing EPA/play has a wider gap, with the Cowboys ranking 11th overall and adding .108 points over expected per play. The WFT is in the positives in passing, but at just .025 points over expected per attempt, they rank 22nd.
The Cowboys rank 14th in total EPA/play with a .037 points added per snap. WFT is 21st but find themselves underperforming against the expected points at -.022 per snap.
Success rate is close with the Cowboys having a slight advantage at 45.7% compared to 44.9% for WFT. Both teams rank in the middle of the pack in success rate.
Offensive Advantage: Cowboys
EPA: Defense
While the goal is score points on the offensive side of the ball, we are looking for the opposite from the defense. The defense’s mission is to prevent the opponent from reaching their expected point total. Therefore, we are looking for a negative number for EPA and a lower number for success rate.
The WFT are the away team and with this being the season of giving, we’ll let them go first this time. WFT ranks 17th in rushing EPA/play against, holding their opponents to -.080 points under expected. The Cowboys rank right behind WFT at 18th overall with an EPA/play of -.068.
Passing EPA/play against is lopsided in favor of the Cowboys. Through 14 games and 15 full weeks of NFL football, the Cowboys lead the league in passing EPA/play against, holding opponents to -.133 per dropback. The WFT ranks 27th, allowing their opponents to add .178 points per dropback over expected.
While this may come as a surprise to many who believed the Cowboys offense would be the dominant side of the ball, the defense ranks No.1 in EPA/play overall, holding opponents to -.110 points per play under expected. WFT again find themselves on the opposite side of the range with a 30th ranked EPA/play of .088. This means opponents are adding points over the expected total on a per snap basis.
The Cowboys defense leads the league in third-down conversions against, which also helps their overall defensive success rate allowed of 40.9%, third best rate in the league. The WFT is allowing a 45.6% success rate against, 21st overall.
Defensive Advantage: Cowboys
Overall Advantage: Cowboys ( Winners of 7 of 8 EPA categories)
Toxic Differential:Toxicity
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Toxic differential (also referred to as Toxicity) is a statistic created by then Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator Brian Billick. Billick realized that adding the number of explosive plays an offense generates and subtracting the number of explosive plays a defense allows, then adding the turnover margin, was a key barometer of team success.
Under Billick’s formula, explosive plays are defined as passing plays over 20 yards and rushing plays over 10 yards. These figures were gathered by Sharp Football Stats.
Toxic Differential: Offense
The Cowboys’ offense has done well throughout the season in generating explosive plays. They rank 10th overall in both explosive running and passing plays with an average of 6.86 per game. Relying on Prescott and a bevy of receiving options with a nice rushing combo of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, the Cowboys will want to continue to create explosive plays as they look towards a division championship and playoff push. They have also done a nice job of limiting turnovers over the course of the season with just 19 to date.
WFT has not had a lot of success in explosive passing plays as of late and rank 24th overall for the season. They have had success in the running game with Antonio Gibson, JD McKissic and Jarrett Patterson generating 45 explosive runs, 13th overall. For the year the WFT are averaging 5.78 explosive plays per game. Like Dallas, they have also done a nice job of protecting the football with just 21 for the season.
Adding the explosive runs and passes and then subtracting turnovers allows us to determine the offensive toxicity score.
Cowboys: 49 explosive passes+ 47 explosive runs= 96 explosive plays.
96 explosive plays – 19 turnovers= Offensive Toxicity score of 77.
WFT: 36 explosive passes+ 45 explosive runs= 81 explosive plays.
81 explosive plays – 21 turnovers= Offensive Toxicity score of 60.
Offensive Advantage: Cowboys
Toxic Differential: Defense
While the offense has done a nice job of generating explosive plays for the Cowboys, the defense has been susceptible to allowing them. The Cowboys have allowed the fifth-most explosive passing attempts and the 18th most explosive rushing attempts this season. They are allowing 6.57 big plays per game. As mentioned above, while they have given up big plays, they have done a terrific job of forcing takeaways and stopping opponents on 3rd down. The Cowboys 31 takeaways is tied for the most in the league.
WFT has done a better job than the Cowboys in both explosive runs and passes allowed. They have given up the 15th most explosive passes and the 22nd most exposive runs for the season. Their defense allows 5.78 big plays per game. They have not done a good job in forcing takeaways though with just 16 for the season, resulting in a -5 turnover differential for the season.
Cowboys: 52 explosive passes+ 40 explosive runs= 92 explosive plays.
92 explosive plays – 31 takeaways= Defensive Toxicity score of 61.
WFT: 43 explosive passes+ 38 explosive runs= 81 explosive plays.
81 explosive plays – 16 takeaways= Defensive Toxicity score of 65.
Defensive Advantage: Cowboys
Overall Toxicity is determined by subtracting the defensive total from the offensive total.
Cowboys Toxicity: Offense 77 – Defense 61 = Overall Toxicity +16
WFT Toxicity: Offense 60 – Defense 65= Overall Toxicity -5
Overall Advantage: Cowboys
ANY/A
Adjusted Net Yards Per Pass Attempt, or ANY/A, is a formula which incorporates passing yardage, touchdowns, sacks and interceptions into a per-throw average. ANY/A has a direct correlation to scoring points and as such ranks third in win predictability.
This metric overwhelmingly favors the Dallas Cowboys. In ANY/A for, the Cowboys have a strong 6.88. They are allowing opponents an ANY/A of just 5.1 which is phenomenal. The differential is +1.78 overall.
WFT has an ANY/A for of 5.63 which is below league average. They have an ANY/A against of 7.2 which is far above league average. The two combine for a differential of -1.57 for WFT, giving their opponents a sizeable advantage through the air.
Advantage: Cowboys
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