Trey Lance NFL Draft prop bet expects QB to go before pick No. 7

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NBC Sports Chicago Staff
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This NFL Draft prop bet involving Trey Lance is intriguing originally appeared on NBC Sports Chicago

If you believe former North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance could be the quarterback who slides down the board during the NFL Draft on Thursday night -- one of the passers has to, right? -- then PointsBet has a prop for you to examine.

Currently, the sportsbook has Lance's draft position number set at 6.5, and the over -- meaning Lance will be selected seventh or later -- is at +130. In other words, a $100 bet on the over would earn $130. The under, meanwhile, is heavily juiced at -236 as of this writing.

With Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson practically already wearing a Jaguars and Jets hat, respectively, Lance would have to remain undrafted over the next four picks for the over to hit. Of course, while that sounds easy, there are pitfalls to consider.

The San Francisco 49ers at No. 3 are the first franchise to worry about. The consensus is that San Fran will grab Mac Jones there, and PointsBet's odds (-325) reflect that sentiment. However, the Niners are reportedly still weighing their options, with some around the league still baffled at the thought of Kyle Shanahan aggressively trading up to merely take the Alabama product (though Shanahan did a good job of providing little insight into their plans during his recent press availability.)

Should Shanahan pass on Lance, the next nervous moment will come when the Falcons hit the clock at No. 4. Like the 49ers, Atlanta has been connected more to other prospects -- most notably Kyle Pitts -- but with a new coach and general manager in charge of their operations, it's difficult to get a true feel on what they'll do.

Now, if Lance gets beyond the Falcons, then things appear to to look better. The Bengals at No. 5 already have Joe Burrow, while the Dolphins at No. 6 seem content with giving Tua Tagovailoa another chance to prove himself in 2021. Then, it's the Lions' turn, and if Lance reaches Detroit's spot, then the over is a winner.

What about someone else jumping up in the order to acquire Lance? That's the last factor to think about.

Atlanta, according to reports, is OK with dropping down in the NFL Draft order, which would provide a premium opportunity for any Lance-loving team to get really close to him. The Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, Washington Football Team and Chicago could all go all-in on Lance, or at the very least bounce up to six and cause the under to deliver.

But with Lance's limited experience, the potential worries about the level of competition he faced in college and the likelihood that he'll require serious patience, he might represent too much of a question to go so high. Plus, Justin Fields will be in the mix as well, which could further muddy the QB picture.

Lance no doubt has his supporters, and it's understandable why. His mobility, intelligence and leadership have all been raved about, and once you combine those traits with his sizable upside, you end up with an enticing player.

Is he enticing enough to hear his name called in the first six picks, though? That's the key debate, especially for those pondering the over on his draft position prop. 

Odds provided by our partner, PointsBet