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Trading back from pick No. 4 only works under 2 conditions

The Arizona Cardinals, a year after making two first-round drafts during the NFL draft, are again connected to trade rumors. They have the fourth overall pick and the Minnesota Vikings have the 11th and 23rd (after acquiring that selection recently in a trade). Minnesota wants a quarterback. J.J. McCarthy will likely be available still after three quarterbacks come off the board to start the draft.

These facts combine to connect the Cardinals and Vikings as potential trade partners.

However, the Cardinals’ greatest need on their roster is a top receiver. They are in position to get that guy in Marvin Harrison Jr. It is an easy choice. He is the easiest receiver to bet on to be great in the draft.

So trading back almost guarantees that they will not be able to draft him.

So for the Cardinals to make that trade, it only works under two circumstances.

Cardinals must get a 2025 draft pick in addition to Nos. 11, 23

The Cardinals do not need more picks in the 2024 draft. They already have 11. If they pick 11 players and they all make the roster, it means they were incredibly fortunate with their picks or their roster is bad.

Per draft trade value charts, the two first-round selections the Vikings have are enough compensation (2,010 points) to get the fourth pick (1,800 points), but the only reason the Cardinals should do it is to get future draft capital.

That would mean a first or second-round pick in 2025. The Vikings don’t have a second-rounder in 2025 so it would have to be a first-rounder. Pricey? Yes. But it should be. It is the quarterback tax.

Cardinals must seek 1 of top 3 WRs in draft

The Cardinals can’t afford to miss out on a true alpha receiver. There are three guys that are the best bets to be that — Harrison, Malik Nabers of LSU and Rome Odunze of Washington.

Having three first-round picks is nice, but if they don’t get a No. 1 receiver, what’s the point?

Nabers and Odunze will likely both be gone by the 11th pick so the Cardinals must maneuver their way up like last year to get their guy.

If necessary, it would be absolutely worth pairing 11 and either 23 or 27 to move up and get Nabers or Odunze.

In that case, the Cardinals get a top receiver, still have two picks in the first round and pick up a premium pick in 2025.

That would make it work.

Any other way, and it is both risky and questionable.

Listen to the latest from Cards Wire’s Jess Root on his podcast, Rise Up, See Red. Subscribe on Apple podcasts or Spotify.

 

Story originally appeared on Cards Wire