Toyota Owners 400 Proper Props

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Dan Beaver
·4 min read
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Prop Bets

Only one driver can win each week, but there is something quite satisfying about picking longshots. To hedge your bets on a weekly basis, betting on top-three and -10 odds is a good way to fulfill that need.

There are several drivers this week with odds in the 200s who represent decent values, but as with the outright winner, there is only so much room at the top. The three favorites, Martin Truex Jr. at +110, Denny Hamlin at +170, and Brad Keselowski at +200 are 2/1 or less for a top three. If you are going to bet on them, you may as well risk an outright wager with a bigger return.

Hamlin should be supplemented with a top-three bet, however. He has a near-perfect record of top-fives this year having missed the mark only once at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Four of his first eight races of 2021 landed third – including the two most recent events on short tracks.

Kyle Larson is first driver above the +200 mark. His odds to finish in the top three are listed at +225 and given his overall strength on almost every course type this year, that is an easy bet to place. His victory at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and runner-up finish in Atlanta landed him in the top three in two of the first eight races. He narrowly missed twice more with a fourth at Homestead and last week’s fifth on the minimally-banked Martinsville Speedway.


With outright odds to win of +2500, Christopher Bell is the first driver with a positive number to finish among the top 10. Listed at +110, he is basically even money to collect. His top-10 average is only .500. There is no bet to be placed there, but it represents a good dividing line.

Just below Bell are Alex Bowman and Kurt Busch with top-10 odds of +125. Bowman certainly has the equipment to finish in the top 10 and it’s difficult to bet against any of the Hendrick Motorsports drivers. Busch has the moxie and one ever knows when he is going to find his magical setup.

Tyler Reddick is one of our longshots for the outright win. With 80/1 odds, it’s worth a modest bet – but if that is too risky, Reddick can also be had for +210 to finish in the top 10 or +1500 for a top-three at PointsBet Sportsbook.

Matt DiBenedetto represents another strong bet at Richmond to finish in the top 10. He has finished 16th or better in his last five races, including a 14th at Phoenix Raceway and a 12th last week at Martinsville. It’s just a matter of time before he breaks into the single digits and if that happens this week, it will be worth $2.15 on a $1 bet.

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Group matchups are another good way to hedge a bet. While the Return on Investment (ROI) for Truex’s (+425) outright win is not enough to warrant a bet, his 2/1 odds of beating Hamlin (+230), Keselowski (+275), and Chase Elliott (+300) is good enough since he only needs to top three other drivers.

Group matchups are also a strong indicator of how oddsmakers expect drivers to race against one another. Kyle Larson (+225) and Joey Logano (+225) have identical odds in their four-driver lineup at PointsBet. Kyle Busch (+250) is not very far behind – although he should be. Meanwhile, Ryan Blaney is a distant fourth with +300 odds.

And if you like our Reddick pick: he will return $2.75 on a $1 bet if he finishes ahead of Kurt Busch (+175), Aric Almirola (+300) and Matt DiBenedetto (+300). We like that wager.

At +220, Larson is predicted to be best among Chevrolet drivers. Elliott (+230) is a close second, but if you want a longshot to beat his teammates, William Byron (+650) represents a good return.

Keselowski (+200) narrowly edges Logano (+250) as the best Ford driver.

One doesn’t have to ask who the favored Toyota driver is, but for the sake of completeness, Truex is +115 over Hamlin’s +175 to make him the top among that manufacturer.

There are two interesting head-to-head matchups this week. Christopher Bell (+120) is favored over Blaney (-140) this week. While we don’t value Blaney for the outright win, he should be able to finish ahead of Bell. Still, it shows a lack of respect for the No. 12 driver that might inform your other decisions.

Bubba Wallace (+120) is favored over Reddick (-140). Once again, we don’t agree with their assessment, but those odds might suggest you wish to make a modest bet on Wallace to finish in the top-10 if you are inclined to favor Reddick. Wallace’s top-10 odds are listed at +250.

On the strength of Truex, Joe Gibbs Racing (+150) is favored over Team Penske (+250) and Hendrick Motorsports (+250) in the team battle. Once again, Stewart-Haas Racing (+800) is a distant fourth.

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