Welcome to the JaguarDFS MMA Breakdown for this Saturday’s UFC Fight Night Makhachev vs. Moises on ESPN. Every week, Louis will be going over his top UFC DFS selections. The analysis and research done for this article is specifically geared towards daily fantasy success, not conventional gambling. For example, a fighter could be heavily favored but may not be in a position to reach daily fantasy point value. This upcoming Saturday (7/17) we have an 11-fight card. DraftKings has a $100,000 first place prize for their GPP tournament while FanDuel has $10,000 going to first place in their “UFC Octagon” GPP tournament. There’s no time to waste, let’s get started.
Alan Baudot DK: $7,200 FD: $9 (+270) vs. Rodrigo Nascinemto DK: $9,000 FD: $21 (-360)
Nascinemto has a high salary on DraftKings and Fanduel but is well worth it. Nascinemto is coming off of a first round knockout loss to Chris Daukaus. Saturday night, Nascinemto is favored by -360. This fight is -400 ITD (Inside the distance). Baudot is one of the lesser talents in the UFC and will undoubtedly have significant problems with Nascinemto’s ability to take him down and either submit him or end the fight by TKO. Baudot has rarely been tested on the mat, making his available UFC stats deceptive. Nascinemto will take this fight to the mat and end it there sooner than later. Nascinemto averages 2.70 TD per fight.
Francisco Figueiredo DK: $8,900 FD: $20 (-310) vs. Malcolm Gordon DK: $7,300 FD: $9 (+240)
Figueiredo enters this fight as a large favorite at -310. This fight is -175 to go ITD (inside the distance). Gordon has lost each of his last two fights; one to Mudaerji and one to Albazi. Gordon’s chin has been questioned constantly. Give me an overall better fighter in Francisco Figueredo over Malcolm Gordon 10 times out of 10.
Miles Johns (-190) DK: $8,400 FD: $18 vs. Anderson Dos Antos DK: $7,800 FD: $13 (+155)
Dos Antos is sitting at +155 against a strategic Miles Johns. Johns is favored at -190 and this fight is -170 to go to decision. Miles Johns is not expected to score well, even in a victory. Dos Antos is extremely durable and has the skills necessary to win this fight. I do believe the decision odds are accurate. Whatever fighter wins will likely have to do it by decision. Johns has the ability to win this fight through multiple paths. Overall, I recommend fading this whole fight. It should be close and neither fighter has a particularly great salary. Even 7800 for an underdog and Dos Antos is questionably high.
Anderson Dos Antos
Khalid Taha DK: $8,300 FD: $13 (-158) vs. Sergey Morozov DK: $7,900 FD: $14 (+125)
Taha Is looking for a knockout with his power. Win by decision is at -185 indicating that Morozov might be the play here. Morozov will want to wrestle while avoiding Taha’s power. Morozov. Many people will be trying to fit elite fighters which forces them to find value. Another route for lineup construction is to consider lower range $8,000 salary fighters who have upside. Taha would fit that build. With so many favorable one-sided matchups on this card, the card will inevitably dictate lineup construction. This will result in fighters such as Taha doing extremely under owned. Taha is favored with an upside yet still projected for sub 15 % ownership.
Preston Parsons DK: $7,400 FD: $10 (+240) vs. Daniel Rodriguez DK: $8,800 FD: $20 (-190)
This is a solid matchup and should play out much closer than most are anticipating. Rodriguez Is averaging 91 points per fight on Draftkings. His ceiling was displayed against Davey Grant where he totaled 126.1 DKFP. Despite is -300 inside the distance. Preston Parsons is no slouch. Rodriguez is going to attempt to box his way to a finish here. Scoring could be an issue for Parsons but if Rodriguez wins it will be through volume and lots of it. Rodriguez is averaging 7.87 significant strikes per minute. I don’t foresee Parsons taking many of these strikes particularly well but if he is able to take down Rodriguez, it will be interesting to see how he handles the ground. Daniel Rodriguez has looked too impressive as of late for me to pick against him. GPP fight of the night. Have exposure to both sides.
Amanda Lemos DK: $9,300 FD: $22 (-500) vs. Monserrat Ruiz Conejo DK: $6,900 FD: $8 (+370)
Lemos is the overall better fighter in this matchup, it’s as simple as that. Amanda is dropping a weight class which will make her even more powerful against the smaller Ruiz. With so many viable plays in the $9,000 salary range, Amanda becomes a solid leverage play coming in as the lowest owned fighter in her salary range. The fact is, she is just as capable of scoring as elite fighters including; Francisco Figueredo, and Rodrigo Nascinemto. Easy decision here, Lemos ITD.
Gabriel Benitez DK: $8,500 FD: $18 (-168) vs. Billy Quarantillo DK: 7,700 FD: $16 (+136)
It’s important to find possible upset options for this slate. At a salary of $7,700, Quarantillo is one of the most viable upsets on this card. Benitez is a first round monster. He will come out headhunting and could potentia end this fight extremely quickly. With that said, if Quarantillo can’t survive the first round it’s clear Benitez has cardiac issues. I expect more volume from Quarantillo and a victory.
Rodolfo Vieira DK: $8,700 FD: $19 (-120) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus DK: $7,500 FD: $11 (+100)
Vieira is a BJJ specialist. His path to victory is clear. Taking down Dustin Stoltzfus is his clearest path of victory. Vieira is not much of a striking threat with just 1.66 significant strikes per minute. With that said, he does average 7.00 TD/fight at a 47.37% rate. Some might question his ability to succeed in the striking game but I don’t think we’re going to have the ability to see that possibility considering this fight should hit the mat quickly and stay there for most of the fight.
Jeremy Stephens DK: $7,600 FD: $12 (-135) vs. Mateusz Gamrot DK: $8,600 FD: $19 (+135)
Mateusz Gamrot is another fairly easy decision for me on this card. Gamrot is favored by -220. He’s averaging 4.91 takedowns per fight but this is not his path to victory. He’s landing 4.26 significant strikes per minute and he throws harder than Stephens can handle in my opinion. Now 35 years old, I understand his 17 losses were mostly against the best fighters the UFC has to offer but with his age getting dangerously high (while moving up a weight class), Stephens might be in big trouble. The money line is deceptive. I think it could be larger. ITD is at -160 which suggests Stevens will maintain his durability that he’s shown in the past but now at 35 years old can he keep that up? I don’t believe so.
Miesha Tate DK: $8,200 FD: $13 (-138) vs. Marion Reneau DK: $8,000 FD: $15 (+118)
Tate is returning to the UFC after a five year hiatus. Tate is the better fighter here, there’s no question about that. The questions around Tate are clear. What kind of shape is she in? And are we going to see the same fighter from five years ago? She’s facing 44-year-old Marion Reneau. This fight is -270 to go to a decision. Tate becomes another solid leverage play if rosteringthe elite $9,000 range fighters is not your strategy. Tate is the better fighter, I expect her to win by unanimous decision. As I’ve mentioned, due to the amount of obvious favorites on this card, your strategy must be clear from the get-go. Do you want to invest two or three $9000 fighters? Or do you want to fill your line up with mid range $8,000 fighters including Taha and now Tate.
Islam Makhavhev DK: $9,400 FD: $23 (-800) vs. Thiago Moises DK: $6,800 FD: $15 (+540)
For our main event this week we have a five round fight between Makhavhev and Moises. Makhavhev has the takedown specialties needed to score high enough considering his $9,400 salary. Moises is going to be looking for a knock out while Makhachev will be looking for the takedown. If you can find confidence in investing in Moises, Your lineup construction becomes a lot easier. Even in a five round loss you might see Moises validate his salary of $6,800. The optimal lineup will include Thiago Moises if he wins. I can guarantee you that. Even in a loss, you may see him in the optimal lineup. For this reason, give me Thiago Moises for the Main Event selection.