TNF Preview: Can the Eagles cover against the Bucs?
Minty Bets walks you through her favorite wagers as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to take on the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday Night Football. She has a pick against the spread, the game total, and player props as well. New BetMGM customers who bet $1 on ANY game will receive $100 in free bets added to their account. You don’t need to win your bet to receive the promotion. Must be 21+ in AZ, CO, IN, IA, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY only. . Terms apply. Go to BetMGM.com/YAHOOSPECIAL to get started or use promo code SPORTSBOOK when making your first deposit.
Video Transcript
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MINTY BETS: Welcome to "Yahoo Sportsbook Daily." It's October 14. And I am Minty Bets, your betting guide to this week's Thursday Night Football matchup between Tampa Bay and Philadelphia.
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We went 5-0 last week, everyone, and the Thursday night game will be on the Yahoo Sports app at 8:20 PM Eastern Standard Time.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 7-point favorites in Philly this week. The total is set at 52 and a half. Now first instinct, when you see this matchup and this line, you probably automatically say Bucks minus 7 and then move on. But this is what I'm here for, because I like to bet on underdogs, and especially ugly underdogs. But the Eagles aren't ugly dogs. Yeah, they won last week against Carolina, who are one of the best defensive teams in the league. Really picked off Sam Darnold three times on Sunday and limited the Panthers to just 267 total yards. This will not be an overreaction to that win though.
Prior to that game, the Eagles looked rough, right? They lost by double digits to Kansas City and Dallas, but those are two very high powered offenses, so that was kind of expected. Although the Bucks are considered a high powered offense scoring the third most points per game, the Eagles defense has some life in them and their offense is steadily improving, but only when Jalen Hurts doesn't throw the ball. It'll be tricky because Tampa stop unit is one of the best, but the Eagles have faced similar teams. They will be ready especially against a banged-up Tampa secondary.
The public is all over Tampa Bay as they should be. 80% of bets for this matchup is on the Bucks, and I expect that number to climb right before kickoff. If that's the case, then this line should move up to Eagles plus 7 and 1/2. I already like the Eagles plus 7, but if it moves up, then that's even better. I also want to mention that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 0-2 against the spread on the road this season. Small sample size, but just thought, I would throw that out there, so Eagles plus 7 is my pick for the side.
Next up, the total. It's set at 52 and a half. This is set assuming the Bucs will be doing most of the scoring. Tampa's offense is averaging 33 points a game while the Eagles are only scoring about 23 points per game. We know that Tampa's passing defense is one of the worst in the league as they're allowing an average of 314 yards in the air per game. So if Philly wants to succeed, Jalen Hurts needs to get it together and improve his accuracy, because he's got guys like DeVonte Smith, Zach Ertz, and Jalen Reagor who are more than capable of catching the ball. Philly will take advantage of this poor passing defense and attack through the air. Tampa Bay will continue to just roll with their great offense and scoring shouldn't be an issue, but I'm expecting a really slow start. Even so, I'm going to take the over.
Now, onto some player props. I got to throw Tom Brady in here. He's expected to exceed expectations and continue to be a stud, and I believe that. But his total for interceptions thrown is 0.5, so the over is set at even money plus 100 for him to essentially throw a pick. So I'm going to take the over. He hasn't thrown an interception in four games, but in week one, he did throw two of them against the Cowboys. Is it likely that he'll throw one in this game? Not really, but it's possible. So I'm banking on that, and I'm taking the plus money.
Next up, Miles Sanders. His rushing attempt total is set at 9 and 1/2. The over is minus 105 and the under is minus 125. I'm going to go under here. I know it doesn't make too much sense since I said this game would go over and the Eagles would keep this within a touchdown, but Tampa Bay has such a solid run defense. Jalen Hurts has to rely on throwing the ball a lot this game and Miles Sanders shouldn't be utilized much. He's hit the under 9 and 1/2 rushes in two of his last three games.
Lastly, let's talk about DeVonte Smith. His receiving yards is set at a high 71 and 1/2. I think Smith is going to be used quite a bit in this game. He's reached 71 or more yards in 3 of 5 games this season, one of which was last week against that tough Carolina defense and another against Kansas City's defense. I don't think this total will go flying over by a ton of yards, but I do like the over.
And just to recap, Eagles plus 7 over 52 and 1/2. Tom Brady to throw an interception plus 100. Miles Sanders under 9 and 1/2 rushing attempts minus 125 and Devonte Smith over 71 and 1/2 receiving yards.
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I'll be back with Pam Maldonado to host our NFL preview episode tomorrow on "Yahoo Sportsbook Daily." Until then, good bye and good luck.
