Three reasons the D-Backs would consider trading Zack Greinke
The Arizona Diamondbacks’ surprise run to the postseason in 2017 would not have been possible without Zack Greinke. Coming off a rough first year with the club, Greinke returned to ace form, putting up the strong numbers we’ve come to expect from him throughout his career and leading Arizona to the wild-card game.
After all that, the Diamondbacks are reportedly looking to trade him. While negotiations with the Texas Rangers may have fallen through, at least three other clubs are considering dealing for Greinke.
The reasons for pursuing Greinke should be obvious. Over 202 1/3 innings, he posted a 3.20 ERA last year. His stuff seemed to rebound and his strikeout rate jumped as a result. Greinke’s 5.1 fWAR ranked seventh in baseball. And aside from his down year in 2016, he’s been incredibly consistent over his career.
Why would the Diamondbacks consider dealing one of the best pitchers in the game — especially considering he was one of the guys at the center of their success last season?
Despite Greinke’s track record, there are reasons to try and deal the D-Backs’ ace. We’ll outline three of those reasons below, pointing out both the positives and negatives that come with each thought.
THE CONTRACT
Greinke has four years and $127 million left on his current deal. That’s a lot of money, even for a superstar. And when you take Greinke’s age into consideration, you can see why the Diamondbacks might be concerned. Though Greinke was excellent in 2017, he’s going to be 34 next season. He’s set average $34.5 million per year through age 37. It’s fair to wonder how much longer he’ll be effective. And once he goes, that contract will become a significant issue.
The downside is that any team acquiring him will have the same concerns. Because of that, the Diamondbacks will either have to eat a fair amount of the money owed to Greinke, or take on another questionable contract, in a trade. That’s the reason Shin-Soo Choo was mentioned in Rangers’ rumors. Arizona isn’t going to completely rid themselves of Greinke’s contract in any deal.
BELIEF IN THEIR YOUNG STAFF
Greinke may have been the team’s best pitcher in 2017, but Robbie Ray wasn’t all that far behind. Ray failed to top 200 innings, but his 2.89 ERA put him sixth among pitchers who threw at least 150 innings. Behind him, both Taijuan Walker and Zack Godley took major steps forward. While Patrick Corbin had his struggles, his peripherals were solid. The team could still have a decent rotation without Greinke.
But there’s also a lot of uncertainty there. Greinke was the only member of that group to top 200 innings last season. Ray, Walker and Godley failed to reach 30 starts, and Ray’s approach of high strikeouts and high walks sometimes limits how deep he can go into games. Corbin is the only other pitcher in the staff to top 200 innings in his career, but that came back in 2013, before he underwent Tommy John surgery. If Arizona trades Greinke and no one steps up to fill those innings, the Diamondbacks can forget about another postseason run.
THEY’LL RE-INVEST THE EXTRA MONEY MORE EFFICIENTLY
There’s a thought that dealing Greinke will allow the Diamondbacks to pick up two or three free agents who will help the team in multiple areas. On the surface, it’s not a bad plan. They can sign a veteran innings-eater for the rotation. They can search for another hitter to strengthen the bottom of the order. If they believe hitting is the bigger priority, maybe they take a run at J.D. Martinez and hope he comes a little cheaper than $34 million a year.
This sounds great in theory, but it’s dependent on a lot of factors. It’s unclear how much of Greinke’s contract Arizona would be able to clear in a deal, so they may have less money available than people expect after making a trade. Some of that can be offset by getting major-league ready players for Greinke, but that would likely require Arizona eating a lot of Greinke’s future salary. And while going after Martinez would be great, it doesn’t solve the hole Greinke would leave in the rotation. Martinez might be a better long-term solution, but you can debate whether he helps them more than Greinke in 2018.
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Chris Cwik is a writer for Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at christophercwik@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Chris_Cwik
