Three reasons Arkansas will host a Regional and two reasons it won’t
Arkansas baseball, by most normal measures, had a good season in 2022. The Razorbacks finished third in the SEC, narrowly missing a fourth straight SEC West crown. They played almost the entire season ranked inside the Top 10 in the country.
Teams across the country would kill for such a season.
But this is Arkansas baseball. Coach Dave Van Horn and former Patrick Wicklander both made mention that a certain segment of the fan base was being too hard on the Razorbacks. That segment suggested, suggests, the year was a disappointment.
A fresh season, of sorts, begins Wednesday. Arkansas will play the winner of Alabama and Georgia, the No. 11 and No. 6 seeds, in the second round during the double-elimination portion of the league tourney. Alabama took two of three from the Diamond Hogs in the final series of the regular season.
The Razorbacks will make the NCAA Tournament. That much isn’t up for debate, even if the team inexplicably goes 0-2 in Hoover, Alabama, during the week. Measures of success in Fayetteville, however, are, fair or not, measured by what happens after Hoover in this week’s SEC Tournament.
Arkansas is still seeking to host a Regional at Baum-Walker Stadium. Right now, they are on the bubble for such a designation. Hoover could make or break the decision.
Here are three reasons why the Diamond Hogs will play postseason baseball Fayetteville and two reasons why they won’t.
Pro No. 1: Raw talent
Arkansas batter Cayden Wallace (7) is greeted by teammate Brady Slavens (17) after hitting a home run against Little Rock during an NCAA baseball game on Tuesday, April 6, 2021, in Fayetteville, Ark. (AP Photo/Michael Woods).
Arkansas achieved its preseason Top 10 ranking and kept it for a bulk of the season based in large part not only because its results, but because of its talent.
The Razorbacks have three players expected to be Top 100 picks in this summer’s MLB Draft. If those three, and the rest of a stacked roster, get going, Arkansas can be scary good.
Pro No. 2: A deep run
Arkansas batter Robert Moore celebrates as he rounds the basses after hitting his second home run against North Carolina State, in the eighth inning of an NCAA college baseball super regional game Friday, June 11, 2021, in Fayetteville, Ark. (AP Photo/Michael Woods)
Arkansas finished the year just 4-6 in its last 10 games. Coach Dave Van Horn said he was concerned after the Diamond Hogs dropped two of three in the season finale series at Alabama.
The Razorbacks have made at least the third round of the SEC Tournament every year they’ve gone since 2013. Van Horn’s teams don’t usually go to Hoover and lay an egg. A third-round appearance this year would likely put them on a bubble for one of the host seeds. A semifinal appearance would almost certainly be enough to host.
Pro No. 3: Tickets
Jun 8, 2019; Fayetteville, AR, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks fans chant during the game against the Mississippi Rebels at Baum-Walker Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Rojo-USA TODAY Sports
No one knows for sure whether the NCAA selection committee doles out host sites based on how likely those teams would be getting fans into the seats. But it stands to reason that would be latent.
Arkansas would almost definitely sell out a Fayetteville Regional, given its near constant status as a powerhouse and one of the best attendance mark in college baseball.
Con No. 1: Late-season struggles
Arkansas pitcher Jaxon Wiggins throws against Tennessee in the first inning of an NCAA college baseball championship game during the Southeastern Conference tournament Sunday, May 30, 2021, in Hoover, Ala. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)
That 4-6 record to close the regular season is going to draw some eyeballs and in all the wrong ways. Arkansas’ resume isn’t strong enough to overcome that plus a mediocre showing in Hoover.
Con No. 2: The RPI isn't up to snuff
Jun 27, 2018; Omaha, NE, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks head coach Dave Van Horn watches from the dugout prior to game two of the championship series of the College World Series against the Oregon State Beavers at TD Ameritrade Park. Mandatory Credit: Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports
The RPI might be an obscure metric to decipher, but it’s the one the NCAA tends to reference most when it comes to Tournament selections, hosts and otherwise.
Arkansas will enter the SEC Tournament with an RPI of 33, good for eighth in the SEC, despite finishing third in the league standings during the regular season. If RPI plays a huge factor, a deep run in the SEC Tournament may not even be enough.
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