Three keys and a prediction: Bears at Packers

Cam Ellis

1. Don't let Aaron Rodgers beat you. Really! 
You'd think this goes without saying, and yet here we are, going and saying it. There's some truth to the counter-argument, I guess: Rodgers hasn't thrown for more than 243 yards since mid-October, and over the last 2-3 years, his QBR has leveled out well below where it was when he was tearing the souls from every other NFL team's body. It helps when you have Aaron Jones and the 4th-ranked (DVOA) rushing attack, but I just find it hard to believe any Bears fan can look at this game and think they have a better chance to win if they let Rodgers throw the ball 40+ times. Over his career, he's averaged more yards per game, and has more touchdown passes, against the Bears than any other NFC North opponent. Getting Akiem Hicks back, even in a limited fashion, obviously helps on both fronts. If the Bears are going to be comfortable putting the ball in someone's hands and hoping they don't beat them, maybe don't make it the first ballot Hall of Fame quarterback who has a history of humiliating your franchise? 

2. Give the ball to David Montgomery and let him cook. 
Montgomery's finding a groove, evident by the fact that he's been given more rushes and gained more yards in each of the Bears' last three wins. I've probably hammered this point a half dozen times already this season, but the Bears are 7-2 when they run the ball 20+ times. 7-2! And they'd be 8-1 if Eddy Pineiro hit the game-winning field goal against the Chargers. And while you could probably find one or two moments in most NFL games that swing the outcome, the bigger point remains: the Bears' run game isn't pretty, but they win when they commit. It's also going to be like, four degrees out and the Packers' have the 26th-ranked run defense (DVOA) in football. Run the ball! 

3. It's just a football field – treat it like that. 
The Bears talked at length this week about how the spectacle of Week 1's Bears-Packers game kind of got to them, and that they were disappointed with how players and coaches seemed shell-shocked for much of it. Now think back to Week 1 of 2018, when the Bears let a big halftime lead slip away. Since then, Nagy's admitted that the moment may have been a little big for him that night, too. And frankly, there's so much noise and so many narrative retreads during Packers Week, so it's not exactly hard to blame them. It's a lot easier said behind a keyboard than done on a (cold, so damn cold) field, but if the Bears want to find themselves in bigger moments down the road, they'll need to minimize the one coming on Sunday. 

Prediction: Bears 27, Packers 24 (OT)
I don't think the Bears are going to make the playoffs, and I think if you got them in a moment of honesty, they'd agree and admit they're playing these last three games for pride. That's not a slight against them at all – they've looked legitimately better across the board over the last month. The Packers don't seem like a 10-3 team to me; they're a 7-5 team according to their Expected W-L, football's version of baseball's Pythagorean formula. Their best win of the season came against a Chiefs team that didn't have Patrick Mahomes. And while this game means everything to Chicago, there is actually not a whole lot on the line for Green Bay: per FiveThirtyEight, the Packers' odds of winning the division currently sit at 93%. A loss would drop that to 86%. There are fair gripes out there about what Nagy's shown as a play caller though two seasons, but these types of motivational situations are where he does his best work. The Bears get their biggest win of the season, and are rewarded with a week of Pat Mahomes prep. 

Three keys and a prediction: Bears at Packers originally appeared on NBC Sports Chicago

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