Every Monday this fall, I’ll provide updated Heisman and national title odds from PointsBet along with thoughts on potential angles.
|Player||Position||Team||This week||Last week|
|Trevor Lawrence||QB||Clemson Tigers||400||500|
|Kyle Trask||QB||Florida Gators||400||800|
|Justin Fields||QB||Ohio State Buckeyes||600||500|
|D’Eriq King||QB||Miami Hurricanes||600||500|
|JT Daniels||QB||Georgia Bulldogs||1400||1400|
|Mac Jones||QB||Alabama Crimson Tide||1400||2400|
|KJ Costello||QB||Mississippi State Bulldogs||2000||1000|
|Shane Buechele||QB||SMU Mustangs||2000||N/A|
|Sam Ehlinger||QB||Texas Longhorns||2500||700|
|Spencer Rattler||QB||Oklahoma Sooners||2500||1100|
|Bryce Young||QB||Alabama Crimson Tide||2500||2500|
|Ian Book||QB||Notre Dame Irish||3000||3000|
|Najee Harris||RB||Alabama Crimson Tide||3000||3000|
|Sam Howell||QB||North Carolina Tarheels||4000||4000|
|Master Teague III||RB||Ohio State Buckeyes||4000||4000|
|Kellen Mond||QB||Texas A&M Aggies||5000||2500|
|Myles Brennan||QB||LSU Tigers||5000||4000|
|Jaylen Waddle||WR||Alabama Crimson Tide||5000||5000|
|DeVonta Smith||WR||Alabama Crimson Tide||5000||5000|
|Sean Clifford||QB||Penn State Nittany Lions||5000||5000|
|Micale Cunningham||QB||Louisville Cardinals||6000||1600|
|John Rhys Plumlee||OW||Ole Miss Rebels||6000||6000|
|Bo Nix||QB||Auburn Tigers||8000||5000|
|Tanner Morgan||QB||Minnesota Gophers||10000||10000|
|Zamir White||RB||Georgia Bulldogs||10000||10000|
|Brady White||QB||Memphis Tigers||10000||10000|
|Jack Coan||QB||Wisconsin Badgers||10000||10000|
|Seth Williams||WR||Auburn Tigers||10000||10000|
|Adrian Martinez||QB||Nebraska Cornhuskers||15000||15000|
|Shawn Robinson||QB||Missouri Tigers||15000||15000|
|JD Spielman||WR||TCU Horned Frogs||15000||15000|
|Taulia Tagovailoa||QB||Maryland Terrapins||15000||15000|
|Charlie Brewer||QB||Baylor Bears||15000||15000|
|Kadarius Toney||OW||Florida Gators||15000||15000|
|Jarrett Guarantano||QB||Tennessee Volunteers||15000||15000|
|Hendon Hooker||QB||Virginia Tech Hokies||15000||15000|
|Feleipe Franks||QB||Arkansas Razorbacks||15000||15000|
|Tylan Wallace||WR||Oklahoma State Cowboys||20000||20000|
|Pooka Williams Jr.||RB||Kansas Jayhawks||20000||20000|
|Javian Hawkins||RB||Louisville Cardinals||20000||N/A|
|Matt Corral||QB||Ole Miss Rebels||20000||N/A|
|Spencer Sanders||QB||Oklahoma State Cowboys||25000||N/A|
- This week’s biggest mover is Florida QB Kyle Trask, whose Heisman odds were cut in half (from +800 to +400). Trask threw for 268 yards and a 4/1 TD/INT rate in last Saturday’s 38-24 win over South Carolina. Through two games, Trask is averaging 342.0 YPG with a 10/1 TD/INT rate. Florida would likely have to go undefeated in the regular season for Trask to make a Joe Burrow-like run to the trophy.
- Only two other players on the entire board saw their odds slashed this week: Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence (+500 to +400) and Alabama QB Mac Jones (+2400 to +1400). Each put up big numbers over the weekend. Lawrence's Clemson Tigers blew out Virginia and Jones' Alabama Crimson Tide rolled Texas A&M.
- Mississippi State QB K.J. Costello was among this week’s big losers. He was listed at +1000 following a 623-yard, five-touchdown performance in the upset over defending champions LSU. But after the Bulldogs fell flat over the weekend in a loss to 17-point underdog Arkansas, Costello’s odds doubled from 10-to-1 to 20-to-1 (+2000).
- Four of the weekend's other big losers: Texas A&M QB Kellen Mond (blowout loss to Alabama), LSU QB Myles Brennan (beat Vanderbilt), Louisville QB Micale Cunningham (bye) and Auburn QB Bo Nix (27-6 loss at Georgia). Mond fell from +2500 to +5000, Brennan from +4000 to +5000 -- seemingly a delayed reaction to the fallout from LSU's loss to Mississippi State -- Cunningham from +1600 to +6000, and Nix from +5000 to +8000. None are serious Heisman contenders.
- Georgia QB JT Daniels continues to be listed at +1400 despite the fact that he hasn’t played this season. Stetson Bennett IV (unlisted) led the Bulldogs to the win over Auburn. For all practical purposes, Daniels has already been eliminated from consideration.
- Wisconsin QB Jack Coan (+10000) had no shot of winning the Heisman in the first place. But that's now official after Cohn injured his foot in practice last week and was deemed out indefinitely. It's likely that hyped redshirt freshman QB Graham Mertz will open the season as the Badgers' starter. Mertz may never give the job back.
- This week, PointsBet added SMU QB Shane Buechele to its board for the first time this season. Buechele’s debuts tied for the seventh-lowest Heisman odds on the board. Buechele threw for 474 yards and three TD with no interceptions in a 30-27 win over Memphis. Through four games, Buechele is averaging 1.5 more yards per attempt and is completing almost seven-percent more of his passes than he did last year (3,929 yards, 34/10 TD/INT).
- Buechele leads the NCAA with 1,326 passing yards through SMU’s 4-0 start. But no matter the stats Buechele ends up posting, even if SMU runs the table, he faces steep odds of winning the Heisman. BYU’s Ty Detmer was the last non-P5 player to win the Heisman, way back in 1990. The year before, 1989, is the last time we had a Heisman winner from a team currently in the G5 (Houston’s Andre Ware).
- Three other new names were added to the PointsBet board this week in addition to Buechele: Louisville RB Javian Hawkins (+20,000), Ole Miss QB Matt Corral (+20,000) and Oklahoma State QB Spencer Sanders (+25,000).
- Sanders’ addition is odd, in that he missed his second straight start this past week against Kansas and has zero chance of winning the award. Hawkins, coming off a bye, still ranks in the top-10 of the FBS in rushing yards. But a running back for a team that is already 1-2 is DOA for Heisman consideration. Corral threw for 320 yards and a 4/0 TD/INT rate while leading Ole Miss with 51 rushing yards in an upset win over Kentucky last weekend. If the Rebels were a contender, he’d be worth a dart throw -- but they’re not.
- PointsBet does not offer a “Field” option. Which is a little unfortunate, because there are a few good players that are still not listed. The best might be Florida TE Kyle Pitts, who has a ridiculous 12-227-6 line through two games. Even if he keeps some semblance of that pace up, Pitts is a true longshot. Only two tight ends have ever won the Heisman. Larry Kelley was the award’s second-ever winner, in 1936, and Leon Hart won the award in 1949.
- Other notable omissions from the PointsBet board include: Iowa State QB Brock Purdy, BYU QB Zach Wilson, Iowa State RB Breece Hall, Clemson RB Travis Etienne, Oklahoma State RB Chuba Hubbard, Mississippi State RB Kylin Hill, Minnesota WR Rashod Bateman and Purdue WR Rondale Moore.
- PointsBet doesn’t yet offer any candidates from the Pac-12 conference.
- While the Pac-12 doesn’t have many viable darkhorse preseason candidates (with the exception perhaps of USC QB Kedon Slovis), the Big 10 certainly does. And it’s the Big 10 that offers some of the best values on the board right now. Ohio State QB Justin Fields’ season hasn’t yet started, but he dropped from +500 to +600 this week. If he stays healthy, Fields has a better shot at the trophy than Trask (+400), and probably a better shot than anyone else in CFB not named Trevor Lawrence. Last week, Lawrence (+400) and Fields were tied at +500 odds.
- Miami QB D’Eriq King was also listed at +500 last week. Like Fields, King fell to +600 this week. Through no fault of his own, as the Hurricanes were on bye.
- Projecting forward, the winner of this week's Clemson-Miami game will dictate next week's Heisman frontrunner. If Miami springs the upset, King could drop from +600 to as low as +300. Of course, Clemson is favored by -14.5. If the Tigers hold serve, and Lawrence plays well, he should drop from +400 to the +250 or +300 neighborhood. Now's the time to bet Lawrence or King if you have a strong feeling about the outcome of that game, one way or the other. The winner may not have better odds the rest of the season as they do now.
Games of note this weekend:
No. 4 Florida at No. 21 Texas A&M
No. 19 Virginia Tech at No. 8 UNC
No. 22 Texas at Oklahoma
No. 14 Tennessee at No. 3 Georgia
No. 2 Alabama at Ole Miss
Florida State at No. 5 Notre Dame
Missouri at No. 17 LSU
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