Thor's 3-round Mock Draft 4.0

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Since Mock 3.0 in late-March, we've had another blockbuster trade -- a draft pick swap between Philadelphia and New Orleans -- the rest of the Pro Day workouts, and a veritable buffet of delicious draft rumors. This year's draft is easily the most unpredictable of any I've covered the past five years. Don't just take my word for it:

The NFL Draft is theater, and movies are best when they keep you guessing until the end -- expect fireworks next weekend. Let's try to sort out the sound from the noise. Directly below, are three rounds of picks in tables. Then we'll jump into the analysis of all 32 teams' respective hauls. Let's do this!

Note: Scroll right for each prospect's RAS composite and comp. RAS size-adjusted athletic composites provided by Kent Lee Platte. RAS scores should be read as percentiles -- ie "5.0" is 50th-percentile.

Top-50 available

The Cardinals address a pressing need along the defensive front with Georgia’s twitched-up, gap-shooting Wyatt, whose game evokes former Bears first-rounder Tommie Harris. The Cardinals would also love to come out of this draft with a starting offensive lineman and a starting cornerback. With Faalele available at 2.55, Arizona can’t help themselves. Arizona gets a nice sticker price on toolshed small-school sleeper Zyon McCollum at 3.87.

There’s been much smoke recently in the media about four receivers potentially going in the top-11. In this exercise, we have three, with the Falcons breaking the seal on the position with Jameson Williams at 1.8. Williams’ stock has stabilized over the past month as teams received good news on his knee from the NFL Combine's medical process. Plus, interested parties were able, with their own two eyes, to observe how quickly Williams is recovering from his knee injury during Alabama's pro day when Williams did calisthenics. Deferring the big need of defensive front-seven reinforcements until Day 2 would be risky, but not if the Falcons can walk away from Friday night with Perrion Winfrey and Channing Tindall. Tindall is going to be better in the NFL than he was at Georgia – the Bulldogs were so loaded on defense that they rarely blitzed him and mostly asked him to play assignment football. Tindall’s per-snap pressure rate will convince his NFL team to unleash him. Winfrey's go-go-go disruption game is already off the leash in that regard.

Draft fallers always seem to drop to Baltimore at the Ravens' position of need. It’s happened again, with Johnson, who some project as a top-10 pick, falling to 1.14 amid a stacked edge class. Parham plugs neatly into the hole vacated by C Bradley Bozeman’s departure for Carolina. This isn’t an area the team can put on the back-burner after allowing a team-record 57 sacks last year. I love the fit of Cook on the Ravens. JK Dobbins returns to rejoin a group of grinders, but Baltimore likely feels it needs more depth at the position, and Cook’s receiving acumen will help out Lamar Jackson while ensuring Dobbins isn’t overworked in his return.

The Bills are the most-logical destination if a running back winds up in Round 1 – but I can’t see them spending that sort of equity on the position. This exercise plays out more advantageously, plugging a more pronounced hole at corner in Round 1 before stealing Kenneth Walker at 2.57. Walker saw a lot of stacked boxes in East Lansing – won’t have to worry about that playing with Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs, will he? Good luck tackling him in space, NFL.

Late last month, the Charlotte Observer’s Jonathan Alexander reported that the Panthers have first-round grades on three quarterbacks — Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett and Matt Corral. If you’re going to take a quarterback in the top-10, he’d better have a top-10 starter ceiling. Willis and Corral do. Pickett does not. HC Matt Rhule might throw a kink into things if he demands Pickett, who once committed to play for him at Temple (before flipping to Pitt), but at this point, Rhule is staring down the barrel of a loaded gun for his NFL coaching future – to pass on a potential difference-maker for a capped-ceiling guy is not in his best interest. He may need to be convinced of that, and perhaps that work will be done by next weekend.

Pick-poor with a swiss-cheese roster, GM Ryan Poles is at the mercy of the board in his first draft in charge. He’d be thrilled if it fell this way. Bernhard Raimann plugs the right tackle hole immediately – and has the physical ability to be an above-average left tackle someday soon. George Pickens is a Round 2 best-case scenario for a team that desperately needs a starting “X” receiver across from Darnell Mooney following Allen Robinson’s departure. Thomas is likely to fall a little as a capped-ceiling power EDGE, but he’d allow Poles to leave Friday night with a trio of new starters. Not bad after having to wait until 2.38 to make his first pick.

Before free agency, it would have been misguided to mock anything but offensive line help to the Bengals in Round 1. But following the additions of Ted Karras, La'El Collins, and Alex Cappa, the only hole left is at LG. So with their newfound freedom, Cincy shoots the moon on Mafe’s absurd upside at 1.31 and then brings in needed secondary help at 2.63 via Penn State standout S Jaquan Brisker. At 3.95, the final piece in the quest to fix Joe Burrow’s offensive line, Georgia’s Salyer. Salyer has been projected higher in some circles but I expect a small drop due to his disappointing testing.

Coming in after an active offseason that saw QB Deshaun Watson and WR Amari Cooper arrive via trade, the Browns’ biggest need is defensive front-seven help (Chase Winovich, Jordan Elliott, and Tommy Togai are projected to start along the defensive line at the moment). Logan Hall will start immediately – the Browns will just have to decide if they want him inside, outside, or if they want to move him around the formation. The next two picks are high-upside fliers on athletic traits. Austin, who tested almost identical to Tyreek Hill (but 15 pounds lighter), pushes aside Jakeem Grant to start inside Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones as a rookie.

After losing OG Connor Williams to free agency, Dallas needs interior help. Linderbaum is coming off PFF’s highest-graded season ever for a center (also the best run-blocking season ever for a center). With Linderbaum, you stage a three-way competition between him, Tyler Biadasz, and Connor McGovern for two starting interior spots. The loser will provide the Cowboys with needed interior depth -- and it ain't gonna be Linderbaum. Dallas fans want a promising receiving prospect out of this draft, and while they have to wait until Round 2 to get one, that’s absolutely what Skyy Moore is. It would be no surprise if he ended up being one of the five-best receivers from this class.

The Broncos are sitting pretty after the acquisitions of Russell Wilson and Billy Turner. They won’t pick until Round 3 because of the Wilson trade, but evaluators consider Rounds 3-5 to be a power alley in this deep class, and the Broncos have a trio of Round 3 picks to play with to plug their remaining holes. Arguably the biggest heading into the draft is tight end after the organization waved goodbye to TE Noah Fant in the Wilson trade. It would be a win to come out of the draft with the class’s best prospect at that position. McBride will be a target-hound favorite of Wilson’s in short order. With the other two picks, Denver fortifies a thin defensive front-seven.

Say this for the Lions: They don’t have any leakers in that front office. Detroit has been eerily silent about its intentions at 1.2 even to its most plugged-in reporters. Many of my contemporaries in the media assume they’ll play it safe with one of the class’s top-three EDGE prospects. And that’s certainly possible. But I know Detroit’s offensive coaching staff loves Willis, whom they coached at the Senior Bowl, and I’m sticking with my hunch that they roll the dice on Willis' all-world skillset next Thursday night. Detroit’s extreme reticence to have their prospect-of-choice outed – how careful they’re being in media interactions – reminds me of San Francisco last process. In the 49ers’ case, a false-flag target was fed to the media to keep the NFL off the Trey Lance scent. In Detroit’s case, if you love Willis, your fear, in this wide-open draft year, is getting hopped by a team trading up with Jacksonville – the Jaguars would no doubt love to pick up a war chest of assets while remaining in the top-10. Just a gut feeling – nobody has inside information on this outside of the closest ring of Brad Holmes’ circle – but I’m sticking with Willis here unless we get a definitive pre-draft report pointing in another direction.

Everybody knows the Packers’ biggest need is receiver, but flush with draft-equity riches via the Davante Adams trade, Green Bay can afford not to get penned in. In this scenario, Stingley falls to them, so they roll the dice on his freshman tape and athletic traits. Receiver gets put off to 1.28, where I have the Packers taking Watson. Some teams don’t have a first-round grade on Watson, but the Packers strike me as a team that might. Watson is a long outside pop-the-top speedster who blocks his butt off – if nothing else, he’s Green Bay’s type. Watson would immediately step into the starting lineup across from Allen Lazard, with Randall Cobb and Amari Rodgers taking care of the slot. It’s a start to rebuilding a group that at this moment is the NFL's worst. Chenal makes all sorts of sense as a buy-local solution to the linebacker need. And if the first-three picks go like this, expect Green Bay to audible to trench depth in the middle rounds, as they’ve begun to do here. Southern Utah's Jones hits Green Bay's thresholds and will interest them as a developmental flier.

The Texans have 11 picks and simply must ace this draft process. Walker has been a rumored usurper of Aidan Hutchinson for the 1.1 slot, but you’d expect cooler heads to ultimately prevail. This is a far more palpable slot for Walker, and he’s a great fit for Lovie Smith’s defense at a position of desperate need. And at 1.13, how about the idea of reuniting Walker with his college pal Davis? This masterstroke would at once turn the defensive line from a weakness into a strength. The Texans played 2021 sixth-rounder DT Roy Lopez on almost half its defensive snaps last year, with second-round bust Ross Blacklock playing 39%. Both are NFL backups/rotation pieces. I love the fit of Hall on the Texans. A versatile three-down hammer with receiving chops, Hall will make Davis Mills’ life a lot easier next fall.

The Colts have jumbo holes at left tackle and right guard. The Colts re-signed OT Matt Pryor to a one-year, $5.5 million deal, and GM Chris Ballard has been resolute that he’ll start at LT. In this scenario, Texas A&M OG Kenyon Green falls into Indianapolis’ lap at 2.42, taking care of the RG spot. Green had been projected as a late first-rounder earlier in the process but may slip into the first half of Round 2 after mediocre athletic testing. Carson Strong fits what the team looks for in quarterbacks. He has a big-league arm and an NFL-caliber pocket game. He could develop into a long-term starting option after learning behind Matt Ryan for a year or two.

The Travon Walker buzz has been building, but that could just be Jacksonville having fun with its media sources. Scouting football players requires accumulating as much empirical data as possible, baking in the eye test, and making a few situational assumptions here and there. To conclude that Walker is a better prospect than Hutchinson requires logical leaps – not situational assumptions, but logical leaps – in my opinion. At the top of R2, Jacksonville picks off Georgia hitman LB Nakobe Dean, who may fall out of Round 1 due to size concerns. Adding Leal to those guys at 3.65 puts a jolt into a previously-lifeless front-seven.

Kansas City’s biggest need is a starting “X” receiver for the post-Tyreek Hill world they’re now living in. An immediate starter at corner would be nice in this division, as well, and so would bringing in RT competition for Lucas Niang. Elam checks the box of immediate-contributor at corner, and Burks, who can likely be had for a discount on draft night because of mediocre pre-draft testing, is “X” juice worth the squeeze at 1.30. Kansas City would do backflips if Smith fell to 2.50 (as they were doing last year at 2.63 with C Creed Humphrey and 6.226 with OG Trey Smith). Tyler Smith would be favored to displace Niang from Day 1. A pick like Paschal is needed along the EDGE after losing Melvin Ingram and Alex Okafor.

The pick-poor Raiders need offensive line help badly. Rhyan fits the mold of what they’ve looked for in the trenches over the last decade. He’s likely a guard at the next level, but you can’t put it past him to ultimately become a quality starting RT. Either way, on this roster, he’s headed inside early. The Raiders can’t feel good about current starting OG duo Denzelle Good and Jermaine Eluemunor.

Cross and the Chargers are a perfect marriage. The Chargers need a starting right tackle, and Cross would become that from Day 1. He arrives from Mike Leach’s wonky Air Raid system, which gets the ball out as fast as any team in the nation while asking linemen to take much bigger splits than is typical. It’s a trickier transition to the next level than from a traditional offense. Giving Cross time to learn at RT benefits him short-term while giving his organization a developmental runway to ascertain if he’s a viable long-term LT option.

When the Rams finally get on the clock for the first time at 3.104, I’d expect them to either take a guard as a potential Austin Corbett replacement at RG, an EDGE to help out a group that lost Von Miller, or a corner to address Darious Williams’ departure. Fortner is the best prospect left at those groups, and he’s got a good chance to start immediately for the defending champs.

The Dolphins will also be sniffing around front-seven help when they start picking and potentially a starting nickel CB candidate, but even after signing OG Connor Williams, Miami still needs offensive line depth. Goedeke is a very promising developmental prospect who could be used as a swing-backup at a minimum of three positions early on.

Seems like every mock you open these days has the Vikings using 1.12 to reunite LSU CB Derek Stingley Jr. with DB coach Daronte Jones, who returned to Minnesota after being LSU’s DC/DB coach last season. Jones can confirm Stingley’s physical talent, of course, just as he can confirm that Stingley checked out on his team the past two seasons. Would analytics-leaning Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, in his very first draft in charge, use a top-12 pick on a guy data doesn't back? Stingley has a quasi-unprecedented Round 1 CB profile, coming off a Lisfranc injury with only one good collegiate season on his resume, multiple years in his rearview mirror by this point. Hamilton, previously a top-5 overall prospect who appears to be dropping after running a 4.59, would be the superior secondary option for the Purple both short- and long-term. And how cool would it be for Hamilton to start his career next to former Notre Dame star S Harrison Smith?

Lloyd may well go higher, but if he’s available here, he makes all kinds of sense for the linebacker-needy Patriots, who currently project to start Ja'Whaun Bentley and Mack Wilson in the second level. Gordon and Shakir are both highly-skilled players who figure to drop lower than they should because of their respective frames.

The Saints’ recent trade for one of the Eagles’ first-round picks seems to set the stage for the drafting of a quarterback. At this moment, there seems to be a better than even-money chance that one of the top-three quarterbacks on most boards – Willis, Corral and Pickett – will be available at 1.16. In this scenario, that’s Pickett, and that’s who New Orleans goes with. At 1.19, one of the most fun prospect-team matches in the draft. My friend Mike Farrell comped Trevor Penning to a bigger Kyle Turley on a recent podcast we did, and now I can’t unsee the comp, nor the fit. The Saints then capitalize on good value by grabbing ​​Jahan Dotson to help flesh out the receiver room.

For a team in desperate need of an offensive tackle and a starting EDGE defender, the Giants picked the right draft to have two top-seven picks. New York’s abysmal interior offensive line ranked dead-last in PFF’s pass-blocking metrics last season, and the G-Men are reportedly infatuated with Ekwonu. Ickey could begin his career as either NYG’s LG or RT – bring him to camp, try him at both, and you’ll have the luxury of removing your choice of Max Garcia or Matt Peart from the starting lineup. Thibodeaux would be an incredible value at 1.7. New York’s pass-rush won’t be anemic anymore once Thibs starts lining up across from Azeez Ojulari.

The Jets are another organization doing a good job of keeping teams off the scent of their intentions. Jets beat reporter Connor Hughes previously tweeted that the Jets wouldn’t take a corner at 1.4 or 1.10 – an interesting report given the team’s cornerback need – but Daniel Jeremiah, as plugged-in with the Jets as any national draft reporter, had CB Sauce Gardner going 1.4 to the Jets in his last mock. I side with Jeremiah on this debate for now. The Jets have been all-over this class’s receivers and are expected to use one of their top-10 picks on a wideout after failing to acquire D.K. Metcalf. With Drake London at 1.10, the Jets draft a prospect with a similar ceiling that’ll be much cheaper over the next five years. If things fell this way for the Jets early, there’s a chance they’d use both high-R2 picks on the defensive front-seven as I have here. New York has been connected to both Ebiketie and Muma in the pre-draft process.

The Eagles will take a receiver with one of their five picks on Day 1 and 2. In this exercise, with three receivers going above their first selection at 1.15, Philly focuses on sure-thing defenders early before stopping David Bell’s free-fall in Round 3. Bell and Karlaftis – one of three immediate starters on defense the Eagles took in the top-51 of this mock – could share a moving truck. Bell’s presence would push Jalen Reagor back to the slot where he belongs, in a rotation with Quez Watkins.

Pittsburgh’s worst-case scenario. The Steelers – who have spoken to all the top quarterback prospects in this class while repeatedly and overtly showing an affinity for Malik Willis that I reported on at the Senior Bowl – would be shut out from the class’ top-three QB options in this scenario. I do not project trades in my mocks, so Pittsburgh, stranded at 1.20, audibles to Desmond Ridder. Ridder has gotten enough Round 1 steam over the past month that this wouldn’t be the reach it might have appeared to be during the season. With how bad the Steelers’ quarterback situation is at the moment, they may feel compelled to force the issue if they’re unable to move up. Bonitto in Round 2 is more in line with the traditional Steelers pick, a hyper-active, quarterback-killing 3-4 OLB.

The 49ers’ biggest need is on the interior offensive line. Projected starting LG Colton McKivitz should be a backup on a Super Bowl contender, and the 49ers only have a one-year solution for center after signing 35-year-old Alex Mack to a one-year deal. Mack ranked middle-of-the-pack No. 16 among qualifying NFL centers in PFF grade last year and is depreciating by the minute. Jurgens’ cleaner projection is center, but he could push McKivitz for his job early before taking over the center gig from Mack in 2023. The 49ers could use another starting-caliber player in the secondary, be it at corner or safety, for 2022 depth purposes if nothing else. Taylor-Britt, a riser during the process like Jurgens, fits the bill.

Could Evan Neal, the presumed pre-Combine No. 1 overall pick, fall all the way to No. 9? There’s a better chance than you might think, but it requires three things, all of which happened in this exercise: 1.) Texans take an EDGE 1.3 instead of an OT, 2.) Two quarterbacks go in the top-8, 3.) Ekwonu is the first OT selected. His fall would be a cause for celebration in Seattle, which has needed offensive line help for years. Howell would be a post-hype sleeper stab. I could see Howell reminding Pete Carroll of some of the quarterbacks he used to have at USC. Seattle only has Drew Lock and Geno Smith in the QB room at the moment.

With Tom Brady returning, we’ve got at least one more YOLO year of Bucs transactions. They’re drafting for today, not tomorrow. What does today’s roster need more than anything? One more starting guard. The Bucs ​​lost Alex Cappa to free agency and Ali Marpet to retirement. They plugged one of the holes by trading for Shaq Mason. Zion Johnson, the best guard in the class, plugs the other. The Bucs re-signed RB Leonard Fournette. He’s a solidly below-average starter, and there’s little behind him (one-dimensional, aging Gio Bernard, and draft bust Ke’Shawn Vaughn). A&M’s Spiller will fall a little due to disappointing testing, perhaps setting Tampa Bay up for a nice buy-low situation on a guy that profiles as a three-down NFL starter.

I like Olave more than this slot indicates, but the NFL appears to be a tad lower on him, potentially opening up the possibility for a contender like the Titans to steal him in the late first. Tennessee traded for Robert Woods after waving goodbye to Julio Jones. But even with a solid outside duo in Woods and A.J. Brown, the Titans could still use a reliable slot who can steal yards when trigger-happy linebackers vacate their stations on a Derrick Henry play-action fake. Walker is a long-term play who will provide Year 1 depth, needed after the Titans lost OG Rodger Saffold and David Quessenberry over the offseason.

The Commanders have been so heavily linked to receivers at 1.11 that at this point it would be a surprise if they went any other direction. Washington badly needs a legitimate starter opposite Terry McLaurin, especially given Curtis Samuel’s inconsistencies in the slot. In this exercise, with Jameson Williams and Drake London going ahead of them, Washington grabs Garrett Wilson, who some consider WR1 in this class. With a McLaurin-Wilson-Samuel starting troika, Washington can get a fair referendum on new starting QB Carson Wentz. The Commanders’ next-biggest hole in the starting lineup currently is at inside linebacker. Harris would be an awesome fit.

Thor's recent NFL Draft work:

• 2022 NFL Draft position rankings

• 2022 NFL Draft rankings: Howell, Zappe, Crum, Coan, Kelley

• 2022 NFL Draft rankings: Pickett, Strong

• 2022 NFL Draft rankings: QB3 Desmond Ridder

• 2022 NFL Draft rankings: QB2 Matt Corral

• 2022 NFL Draft rankings: QB1 Malik Willis

• 2022 NFL Draft rankings: RB20-30

• 2022 NFL Draft rankings: RB14-19

• 2022 NFL Draft rankings: RB7-13

• 2022 NFL Draft rankings: RB1-6

• 2022 NFL Draft rankings: Wide receivers

• 2022 NFL Draft rankings: Tight ends and fullbacks

• 2022 NFL Draft rankings: Interior offensive line

• 2022 NFL Draft rankings: Offensive tackle

• 2022 NFL Draft rankings: Defensive line

• 2022 NFL Draft rankings: EDGE rushers

• 2022 NFL Draft rankings: Linebackers