It's still interesting, but not for the reasons we expected.
The Broncos and Colts seem to be sliding fast, even though we're only four games into the season. The Broncos are 3-point favorites at BetMGM. The Broncos are -120 odds at -3, and the line could move to 3.5 before kickoff.
It's hard to tell which team is under more pressure heading into the game. The Broncos are coming off a loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, their offense hasn't found a groove yet and the fan base isn't happy over the 2-2 start. The Colts are 1-2-1 with both losses and the tie are to divisional foes.
Both teams had a rough Week 4 in terms of injuries. The Broncos lost running back Javonte Williams for the season and pass rusher Randy Gregory for multiple weeks. The Colts will be without running back Jonathan Taylor (ankle) and Shaquille Leonard (concussion), which is the main reason the point spread is moving in the Broncos' direction.
Both teams have offensive issues. The Broncos have struggled, though they looked a little better in the loss to the Raiders. The running back position is an issue with Williams out and Melvin Gordon struggling with injuries. The Colts aren't getting great line play and Matt Ryan hasn't looked great. It's an offense built around Taylor and there's no great replacement for him (Nyheim Hines is a good player but a much different one).
It's hard to trust the Broncos but it's even harder to trust the Colts. Russell Wilson built on the game-winning drive in Week 3 against the San Francisco 49ers and made some plays last week. Maybe that's a sign the offense is coming alive, even if it has a long way to go. The Broncos look like the better side, but nobody thought both teams would be in trouble at this early stage of the season.
Here's a first look at the sports betting slate for Thursday:
Any prop bets for Colts-Broncos?
The injuries to Jonathan Taylor and Javonte Williams change the prop market for Thursday night. As of Wednesday night, the only running back with a prop listed was Nyheim Hines at 36.5 rushing yards. There's a lot of uncertainty over how the backfields will look.
One prop that stands out is for Colts tight end Mo Alie-Cox. His receiving yardage total is a modest 18.5. His playing time has gone up each week and he had 85 yards last week. The Colts won't be feeding their running backs like they fed Taylor. There should be more short passes, and Alie-Cox will get enough targets to reach the over. I'd look to the under on Michael Pittman Jr.'s total of 63.5. Pittman is very good but he'll see a lot of Broncos star cornerback Patrick Surtain II.
Not much else on Thursday
The MLB regular season is done and everyone is taking a day off before the playoffs start on Friday. NBA and NHL are in preseason mode, though there is a regular-season NHL game on Friday between the Nashville Predators and San Jose Sharks in the Czech Republic. It's a football-heavy Thursday. There are worse things.
What's the best bet?
The Broncos aren't a fun team to bet on right now but I think being at home, against a Colts team without two superstar players, will result in a cover.