The Bills are the No. 3 Super Bowl favorite even though they aren't guaranteed a playoff spot entering Week 18

Buffalo could miss the playoffs with a loss to Miami and unfavorable results in other games

The Buffalo Bills are not guaranteed a playoff berth entering the final week of the 2023 NFL regular season. Yet the Bills are the co-No. 3 favorites to win the Super Bowl.

Buffalo is +800 to win the Super Bowl at BetMGM as it enters its Week 18 matchup with the Miami Dolphins as a slight favorite. The Bills are favored by three points ahead of the game that will determine the AFC East title.

If Buffalo wins, the Bills will be the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs and host a wild-card playoff game. If Miami wins, the Dolphins are division champions and Buffalo will be on the road to start the playoffs. Or may not even be in the postseason at all.

If Buffalo loses, the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Tennessee Titans, the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Baltimore Ravens and the game between the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts doesn’t end in a tie, the Bills will miss out on the playoffs entirely. It’s not a totally implausible scenario; Tennessee doesn’t have anything to play for and Baltimore could rest important players like QB Lamar Jackson, WR Zay Flowers, LB Roquan Smith and others with the No. 1 seed in the AFC locked up.

At the very least, Buffalo will know before Sunday if it’s facing a win-and-in scenario on Sunday night. The Steelers and Ravens and Texans and Colts play Saturday. If Baltimore wins Saturday afternoon, Buffalo will be in the playoffs no matter what happens in the AFC South matchup.

The Ravens (+350) and San Francisco 49ers (+210) are the only two teams with better Super Bowl odds than the Bills and both of those teams have first-round byes in the playoffs. San Francisco clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs and will likely rest its starters against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday.

The Dallas Cowboys have the same odds as the Bills and are set to be the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs with a win over the Washington Commanders in Week 18.

The Kansas City Chiefs have locked up the No. 3 seed in the AFC after winning an eighth-straight AFC West title in Week 17 and are the No. 5 Super Bowl favorite at +900. The Chiefs could host the Bills in the wild-card round if Buffalo loses to Miami and gets the No. 6 seed.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) throws a pass during an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, in Orchard Park, NY. (AP Photo/Matt Durisko)

Super Bowl favorites ahead of Week 18

  • San Francisco 49ers (+210)

  • Baltimore Ravens (+350)

  • Buffalo Bills (+800)

  • Dallas Cowboys (+800)

  • Kansas City Chiefs (+900)

  • Philadelphia Eagles (+1100)

  • Miami Dolphins (+1300)

  • Detroit Lions (+2000)

  • Cleveland Browns (+3500)

  • Jacksonville Jaguars (+3500)

  • Los Angeles Rams (+6600)