Texas Football: Record prediction 1.0 with game-by-game analysis
The Big 12 schedule has finally arrived. In a surprising turn of events, the schedule favors the Texas football program.
The Longhorns will have to travel to Houston to face the Cougars. Though few Texas fans look forward to that road trip, one would imagine Houston’s new stadium can better accommodate fans than its last one.
The schedule isn’t as kind to other Big 12 teams. Most notably, the Big 12 and national runner-up TCU Horned Frogs face a brutal second half. They face five of my top seven Big 12 championship competitors in their last five games.
The Big 12 gave the Oklahoma Sooners a challenging end to the season. Oklahoma travels to Provo to face the BYU Cougars and then closes the season with TCU at home on a short week.
Here’s a look at how the season could play out for my early conference title favorite, the Texas Longhorns.
Rice Owls
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Texas opens the season with the Rice Owls. Rice made a bowl game last year, but fell to Frank Gore Jr. and the Southern Miss Golden Eagles, 38-24. Gore ran for 329 yards, an NCAA bowl record. Texas should have little trouble with Rice.
Texas 52, Rice 9
Record: 1-0
at Alabama Crimson Tide
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If you’re looking for a bold prediction, you’ve come to the right place. Texas nearly beat Alabama behind a strong start from Quinn Ewers and defensive dominance. Ewers left the game after two drives, completing 9 of 12 passes for 134 yards. Xavier Worthy and Jordan Whittington were open and made plays last season. The emergence of AD Mitchell and Isaiah Neyor could give Alabama more problems. Ewers plays well and Alabama loses without Bryce Young to bail it out of trouble.
Texas 37, Alabama 30
Record: 2-0
Wyoming Cowboys
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Isaiah Neyor reunites on the football field with his former team, the Wyoming Cowboys. Wyoming was sneaky good last season finishing second to Boise State in the Mountain West with a 7-6 record. Wyoming lost its bowl game to Ohio, 30-27. So while they were a good team relative to their schedule, Texas shouldn’t have trouble with the Cowboys.
Texas 55, Wyoming 10
Record: 3-0
at Baylor Bears
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If you’re looking for an early potential loss after Alabama, Baylor provides that potential pitfall to Texas. While I’m not particularly high on the Bears’ chances in 2023, their home-field advantage poses a threat to the Longhorns in the loss column. Blake Shapen was good last season. He should emerge as one of the best quarterbacks in the conference.
Half of the game, Texas will play with Baylor’s band loudly blasting songs like the Imperial March from Star Wars in the end zone behind them. The upset pick here is fairly obvious to me, as Baylor enters the game under-the-radar like Texas Tech last year.
Baylor 38, Texas 31
Record: 3-1
Kansas Jayhawks
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We never take Kansas for granted anymore in Austin, though Texas made short work of the Jayhawks last year. The Longhorns won the game, 55-14, on the strength of Bijan Robinson and Jonathon Brooks. Though Jalen Daniels could make the game interesting, Texas should leave with a win heading into Red River.
Texas 48, Kansas 20
Record: 4-1
Oklahoma Sooners (Dallas)
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Texas won 49-0 in 2022. Despite last year’s Red River Shutout, the Sooners pose a much bigger threat this season. Portal additions of Austin Stogner, Dasan McCullough and Trace Ford make the team more reliable. Freshman safety Peyton Bowen and edge rusher PJ Adepawore could provide a boost right away for the Sooners. That said, Brent Venables doesn’t have the personnel to stop Ja’Tavion Sanders, Xavier Worthy, AD Mitchell, Isaiah Neyor or Jordan Whittington. Texas outscores Oklahoma.
Texas 45, Oklahoma 38
Record: 5-1
at Houston Cougars
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Coming off a bye, Texas faces the Houston Cougars. Last season the Cougars were undisciplined, not very football savvy or both. This year, they will be without NFL draft hopeful quarterback Clayton Tune. After losing to Kansas and Texas Tech last year, Houston should be no match for Texas.
Texas 59, Houston 24
Record: 6-1
BYU Cougars
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The BYU Cougars have given Texas fits in recent seasons. They are not to be overlooked this season, but the Longhorns fortunately face Brigham Young in Austin. Look for Texas to grind out a close one at home.
Prediction: Texas 34, BYU 20
Record: 7-1
Kansas State Wildcats
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Staying in Austin, Texas plays host to the Kansas State Wildcats to start November. K-State loses Deuce Vaughn but returns several players from last year’s Big 12 championship team. The last two seasons presented the Wildcats with great opportunities to defeat the Longhorns. Ultimately, Texas’ depth of elite talent was too much, and should be again this year.
Texas 56, Kansas State 27
Record: 8-1
at TCU Horned Frogs
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The Horned Frogs played one of their worst offensive games of the season against Longhorns last year. It didn’t matter. The TCU defense shut down the Texas offense in a 17-10 road victory. Texas has had difficulty winning at Amon G. Carter Stadium in recent years. Before narrowly defeating a 5-7 Frogs team by five points, the Horns had lost three consecutive road trips to Fort Worth. JoJo Earle could have a breakout game and hand Texas its second loss.
TCU 34, Texas 24
Record: 8-2
at Iowa State Cyclones
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The home crowd in Ames will undoubtedly bring its A game when Texas comes to town. Hunter Dekkers figures to progress in his second season at starting quarterback, while Matt Campbell could manage the game into a nail biter. Even so, Texas wins again on its way to a Big 12 title game.
Texas 24, Iowa State 23
Record: 9-2
Texas Tech Red Raiders
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Texas Tech head coach Joey McGuire coaches with reckless abandon, as if he has nothing to lose. That was the story of Texas Tech’s upset victory over Texas last season. McGuire doesn’t flinch at the prospect of fourth down and that likely will not change this year. I’ll give Texas a narrow edge at home with a Big 12 title berth on the line.
Texas 38, Texas Tech 36
Record: 10-2
