Tennis Best Bets for July 17

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·3 min read
Tennis Best Bets for July 17
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We've reached the semifinal stage of our three tournaments going on across the world this week on the ATP Tour, which means we've got some intriguing matchups to pick from. I've selected two bets I really like, and without further ado I'll get them to you now.

Jenson Brooksby (+106) vs. Jordan Thompson (-136)

Sometimes when you find a good thing, you just keep riding the wave. That's what we have here in young Jenson Brooksby, who improved to 31-5 on the season with a win over Peter Gojowczyk on Friday. He's firing off of both wings, and competing so, so hard at the moment. His returning was other-worldly against a great spot-server in the German, and now he'll face another guy with great spot serving on grass in Thompson.

The matchup isn't one which should faze the American one bit. Thompson's best weapon is his defense and that aforementioned serve, but a very average backhand slice and basic point construction make him an easy opponent to defeat. Players who are error prone, like Maxime Cressy on Friday, will eventually wilt under Thompson's relentlessness, but Brooksby shouldn't fall under that category.

Mentally, I think Brooksby has a huge edge here. Thompson is notorious for getting outwardly frustrated on the court, and someone who never gives up like this will spoil some great shots from the Aussie and steal plenty of points. It should cause Thompson to make some costly errors, and one thing Brooksby has been great at is capitalizing on every inch he gets.

The 20-year-old may not have as much experience on grass as Thompson, but his determination and massive flat groundstrokes have been more than enough at this small tournament. I expect him to advance to Sunday's final and capture his first-ever ATP title, entering the event with just one main-draw match win.

Edge: Brooksby +106

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Federico Delbonis (+155) vs. Pablo Carreno-Busta (-200)

Because he's from Spain, folks assume that Pablo Carreno-Busta is like so many of the other fellow countrymen that have come before him and skilled on the clay. That assumption would be incorrect.

Carreno-Busta is a world-class player, but it's clear that he does his best work on hardcourts. That's where his consistency seems to shine the brightest, and his lack of variety and spot serving seem to hurt him times on the dirt. It's not as if he can't win on the surface — he's accomplished on it — but he's been susceptible to losses you wouldn't expect from him on the biggest stages off of clay (and grass).

Another area he's been susceptible to losses is when facing Federico Delbonis. He's won just twice in the eight meetings they've had across all levels dating back to 2008, and all but one match was on clay (Delbonis won on the hardcourts in Miami four years ago).

PCB came through against Dusan Lajovic unconvincingly on Friday, falling behind 4-0 in the first set before the Serb starting donating error after error. His play has been merely good enough. Delbonis, on the other hand, has showcased world-class stuff against some tough outs in Albert Ramos-Vinolas and Benoit Paire (yes, Benoit Paire!). His forehand has been absolutely massive and I don't think Carreno-Busta will stand up to it. With the Argentine playing so many great defensive players, he should have more than enough rally tolerance to pull the upset.

Edge: Delbonis +155

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