Would Tennessee WR Corey Davis be a free agent fit for Dolphins?

The Miami Dolphins’ ongoing evaluation of their wide receiver room is going to prompt changes this offseason. The Dolphins’ pass catchers have been molded from a template rooted largely in size to this point — with big-bodied receivers like DeVante Parker and Preston Williams, when healthy, commanding the featured reps. Yes, there’s more versatility in the room with gadget types and specialists like Mack Hollins (also a big receiver) and Jakeem Grant. But Miami needs to push their starters and acquire more depth that can run quality routes for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in 2021.

One possible receiver to watch is Tennessee’s Corey Davis. A former 1st-round selection, Davis’ career trajectory largely mirrors that of DeVante Parker to this point — underwhelming at first, issues with availability but too physically gifted to not break out at some point. He did in 2020 with nearly 1,000 yards receiving and 5 touchdowns; setting career highs in receptions, yards, yards per catch, touchdowns, yards per target and yards per game this season.

Could Davis be a fit for Miami?

Fit In Dolphins’ Scheme

The good news for Miami is if the team wants to add more size receivers, Davis can check the box. He is listed at 6-foot-3, 209 pounds and has plenty of explosiveness in his frame. And Davis turned 26 years last month, making him the kind of young addition that Miami could gravitate towards based off their decision making process of the past year.

But does Davis separate? Can he provide Tagovailoa with the wins as a route runner to make the young quarterback comfortable to target him?

Davis averaged 2.4 yards of separation per target on 92 targets in 2020. Comparatively, DeVante Parker averaged 1.7 yards of separation per target on 103 targets in 2020 (tied for the lowest figure in the league). Tight end Mike Gesicki averaged 2 yards of separation on 85 targets — the third worst figure in the league behind only Parker and Bengals veteran receiver AJ Green.

So Davis is better than Miami’s top targets. But in the grand scheme of the NFL, he’s still not to the standard of the game’s top targets. Buffalo’s Stefon Diggs averaged 3 yards of separation on 166 targets. Arizona’s DeAndre Hopkins averaged 3.1 yards per target on 160 targets. Green Bay’s Davante Adams? 3.2 yards per target on 149 targets.

If Miami is interested in adding size, perhaps Davis can be the right choice given how much better he is than what Miami currently has in the building. But at the same time, the price would have to make sense for the Dolphins, too.

Fit In Dolphins’ Cap

The Titans declined Davis’ 5th-year option after making him the No. 5 pick in the draft in 2017. So the good news for Davis is he may be more dialed in on the right fit as compared to simply taking the best offer he can get financially — Davis has earned good money early in his career.

Spotrac estimates that Davis can command a contract worth $39.4 million over four years, averaging just short of $10M per season. That can be easily accommodated for Miami given their current cap situation and the Dolphins trimming some dead weight or aging players off their roster this offseason. This would be a more financially responsible spend than say, Chicago’s Allen Robinson — who is of the same mold and while admittedly a better player, will probably cost close to $20M per season.

Through that scope, there’s an easy case to be made for Davis if Miami is intent on keeping their big receivers trend.

Final Verdict

Davis makes some sense for Miami financially, from an age perspective and potentially from a style of play standpoint. But the million dollar question for the Dolphins will be whether or not they intend to stand firm with their team building and look for Tua Tagovailoa to grow more comfortable throwing to these types of receivers or if the team will conduct an about-face and embrace the smaller, shifty receivers that Tagovailoa had so much success throwing to at Alabama.

We’d bet for now that Miami will build around their quarterback with players that accentuate his strengths, making Davis a receiver who deserves a nice contract — but may not get one from Miami.